Not exact matches
Picture
warm blanket, mug of hot tea and your significant
other side by side and you're on
cloud nine.
Scientists can measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much
other factors — the response of
clouds to
warming, the cooling role of aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by oceans, human transformation of the landscape, even the natural variability of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that effect.
In a recent study, for instance, well - respected climate models were shown to have completely opposing estimates for the overall effect of the
clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net
warming, whereas
others found cooling.
On the
other hand, by
warming the atmosphere, aerosols can stabilize the air and protect
clouds from drying out and thinning.
As a result of atmospheric patterns that both
warmed the air and reduced
cloud cover as well as increased residual heat in newly exposed ocean waters, such melting helped open the fabled Northwest Passage for the first time [see photo] this summer and presaged tough times for polar bears and
other Arctic animals that rely on sea ice to survive, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
«There's
other things besides just
warming — there's
cloud cover and rain that can ameliorate the effects of the
warming.
He predicts an acceleration of
warming trends to take place in coming decades but what that means for
cloud formation, hydrological cycles and
other events that affect albedo is unknown.
I'm not even an amateur climate scientist, but my logic tells me that if
clouds have a stronger negative feedback in the Arctic, and I know (from news) the Arctic is
warming faster than
other areas, then it seems «forcing GHGs» (CO2, etc) may have a strong sensitivity than suggested, but this is suppressed by the
cloud effect.
What will happen if the AO changes is an open question, at one side there may be less inflow of
warmer air, at the
other side, this may result in opposite changes in
cloud cover...
The factors that determine this asymmetry are various, involving ice albedo feedbacks,
cloud feedbacks and
other atmospheric processes, e.g., water vapor content increases approximately exponentially with temperature (Clausius - Clapeyron equation) so that the water vapor feedback gets stronger the
warmer it is.
On the
other hand, lead - laden
clouds send more heat from the earth back into space, cooling the world slightly and possibly lessening global
warming by greenhouse gases.
And one
other piece of bad news:
Warming clouds tend to shift higher in the atmosphere, where they trap more heat while reflecting no more sun than they would have lower down.
In these performances, often staged in nature with no audience, the Truppe are as apt to commemorate the passing of an unusual
cloud as they are to be found documenting their own attempts to flee the rising waters of a
warming planet, or using black humor to comment upon the extinction of bats or
other animals.
Svensmark and
others have also argued that recent global
warming has been a result of solar activity and reduced
cloud cover.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite
cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low
cloud seeding hypothesis, and no
other factors were involved over the past 150 years (e.g., variability of
other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar activity induced changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the global
warming experienced during the 20th century, with the possible exception of the last two decades.
He predicts an acceleration of
warming trends to take place in coming decades but what that means for
cloud formation, hydrological cycles and
other events that affect albedo is unknown.
due to co2 we are already living in a greenhouse.Whatever one does in that greenhouse will remain in the greenhouse.INDUSTRIOUS HEAT will remain in the greenhouse instead of escaping into outer space; this is a far greater contributor to global
warming than
other factors and far more difficult to reduce without reducing economic activity.Like
warm moist air from your mouth on cold mornings so melting antarctic ice will turn into
cloud as it meets
warm moist air from tropics the seas will not rise as antarctica is a huge
cloud generator.A thick band of
cloud around the earth will produce even temps accross the whole earth causing the wind to moderate even stop.WE should be preparing for this possible scenario»
There are
other highly uncertain topics such as hurricanes and global
warming and
cloud / aerosol feedbacks, that are arguably more important for the global
warming argument than the paleo reconstructions.
The (apparent) slower rate of projected model
warming for a higher absolute temperature may be related to
other factors like
cloud amount and geographical distribution at higher absolute humidity, or increases in convective transport (due to more atmospheric instability) at higher absolute humidity.
What we will all now over time, or those who come after will know, is that
warming and cooling of the climate is almost entirely dependent upon the sun, its activity, our orbit of it, etc... Of course
other things such as volcanism matter, and
clouds, and water vapor, and so many
other things which are all natural and have happened over and over through the ages.
What
other things in the Earth system will change when it
warms up that will affect how much SW radiation is reflected back into space [eg ice - albedo feedback,
cloud changes] or affect what proportion of emitted LW radiation is allowed to escape to space [eg Water Vapour,
cloud changes].
The second order effect of increasing cloudiness caused by more GCRs when «atmospheric conditions are suitable» for the formation of high
clouds due to the
other effects of global
warming should be
warming.
Could
other mechanisms contribute to the
warm pool, such as differences in
cloud cover?
«Our results suggest that, in contrast to
other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global
warming by reducing marine
cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents.
What will happen if the AO changes is an open question, at one side there may be less inflow of
warmer air, at the
other side, this may result in opposite changes in
cloud cover...
This is what I get out of it: the Arctic - ice - albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to
clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET EFFECT, the ice loss and all these
other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance global
warming.
All
other factors merely modulate it, be they cosmic rays affecting
cloud formation rates, carbon dioxide affecting cooling rates, or volcanoes affecting
warming rates, or various
other factors affecting albedo.
The physical evidence for man - made global
warming has never been demonstrated - evidence that many of us trained in the sciences have been waiting.When some scientists suggest that
other forces
other than man - made CO2 may be involved with the climate, like the Sun, the
clouds, the oceans, natural sources of CO2, etc., they are met with scorn and derision.
Other feedbacks like
clouds, (poleward and deep) convection may alter that in positive or negative ways, but that is exactly what the current debate between skeptics and
warmers is about.
The Earth's temperature has
warmed in the modern era as a consequence of the strong solar activity during the 20th century (the Modern Maximum) shielding cosmic ray intensification and thus reducing decadal - scale
cloud cover, which leads to
warming via an increase in absorbed surface solar radiation (as illustrated here by Ogurtsov et al., 2012 and detailed by Avakyan, 2013, McLean, 2014, and
others).
He theorizes that the Earth's temperature has
warmed in the modern era as a consequence of the strong solar activity during the 20th century (the Modern Maximum) shielding cosmic ray intensification and thus reducing decadal - scale
cloud cover, which leads to
warming via an increase in absorbed surface solar radiation (as illustrated here by Ogurtsov et al., 2012 and detailed by Avakyan, 2013, McLean, 2014, and
others).
While CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas, increasing concentrations of which may be expected to have (
other things being equal) a
warming effect, scientists disagree about how large that effect may be (this is particularly affected by ignorance of the effect of
clouds).
Putting those two, theoretical, processes together with some shaky assumptions about aerosols,
clouds and
other atmospheric phenomena, and arriving at an assumption that the theoretical minor
warming of CO2 is tripled is what concerns a true skeptic.
«Conclusions These calculations show that
clouds did not cause significant climate change over the last decade (over the decades or centuries relevant for long - term climate change, on the
other hand,
clouds can indeed cause significant
warming).»
Trees are not only carbon - sinks, but they also perform two
other climate - affecting tasks: they absorb light into their dark leaves — causing a
warming effect — and they pull water out of the ground and into the air, creating low
clouds that promote cooling.
Ideally we would like to constrain
cloud feedbacks in
other ways so as to bring these
other constraints to bear on the attribution of the observed
warming.»
Most of your readers are probably unaware of the fact that doubling carbon dioxide in itself only produces a modest
warming effect of about 1.2 C and that to get dangerous
warming requires feedbacks from water vapour,
clouds and
other phenomena for which the evidence is far more doubtful.
The answer, as it turns out from
other considerations, is that Earth's climate is regulated by albedo, surface albedo in the cold state, and
cloud albedo in the
warm state.
Most of the
other skeptics keep quiet about the
clouds reducing during the rapid
warming from 1970 - 2000, because that is exactly opposite to their hopes of a negative
cloud feedback, and supports the positive feedback idea more.
Jim D: Most of the
other skeptics keep quiet about the
clouds reducing during the rapid
warming from 1970 - 2000, because that is exactly opposite to their hopes of a negative
cloud feedback, and supports the positive feedback idea more.
However, that is wrong because CO2 is the working fluid of the control system that corrects almost perfectly for any change in its concentration hence no present
warming as the
other warming effects, solar and polluted
clouds, return to near zero.
Shifts in
clouds, water vapor, and the great currents in the ocean and air, however, cause complex responses in which some regions
warm more than the average while
others warm less than average, or even cool.
Having made that point it becomes necessary to deal with the matter of cloudiness and it's effects because the passing over of a
cloud with the consequence of a
warmed ocean skin layer is put forward (by Realclimate amongst
others) as a «confirmation» of the effect of DLR on the skin layer because
clouds transmit more DLR downward just as GHGs do.
The upward motion comes from air rising over mountains,
warm air riding over cooler air (
warm front), colder air pushing under
warmer air (cold front), convection from local heating of the surface, and
other weather and
cloud systems.
Some kinds of
clouds warm the climate;
others cool the climate.
The basic results of this climate model analysis are that: (1) it is increase in atmospheric CO2 (and the
other minor non-condensing greenhouse gases) that control the greenhouse
warming of the climate system; (2) water vapor and
clouds are feedback effects that magnify the strength of the greenhouse effect due to the non-condensing greenhouse gases by about a factor of three; (3) the large heat capacity of the ocean and the rate of heat transport into the ocean sets the time scale for the climate system to approach energy balance equilibrium.
As there are not one but two sources of satellite data to show that all
warming in the satellite era resulted from
cloud cover change — we should not allow mere supposition dissuade us until such time as
other evidence prevails.
The shape of the CO2 band is such that, once saturated near the center over sufficiently small distances, increases in CO2 don't have much affect on the net radiative energy transfer from one layer of air to the
other so long as CO2 is the only absorbing and emitting agent — but increases in CO2 will reduce the LW cooling of the surface to space, the net LW cooling from the surface to the air, the net LW cooling of the atmosphere to space (except in the stratosphere), and in general, it will tend to reduce the net LW cooling from a
warmer to cooler layer when at least one of those layers contains some
other absorbing / emitting substance (surface, water vapor,
clouds) or is space)
The hypothesized causal factors include global
warming, atmospheric brown
clouds, land surface modification, recovery from the mini ice - age, and large scale drying of the air among
other factors.
Because of the combination of high absorption, a regional distribution roughly aligned with solar irradiance, and the capacity to form widespread atmospheric brown
clouds in a mixture with
other aerosols, emissions of black carbon are the second strongest contribution to current global
warming, after carbon dioxide emissions.