Back in June there was a discussion of Coal and Climate Change by Dave Rutledge http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2697#more What I got from that discussion was that «global warming» won't happen because the world will run
out of fossil fuels before CO2 level rises enough for any of the IPCC scenarios to happen.
Or maybe their case is we'll run
out of fossil fuels before 500 ppm which makes a quick transition even more needed.
Not exact matches
Peak Oil places you into the shiny, pointed shoes
of someone running an oil empire where you must deal with investing in new technology, drilling for oil and then selling that oil
before the world has run
out of its favorite
fossil fuel and will presumably be turning into a post-apocalyptic scenario quite soon, possibly with some guy called Max blasting around.
The kind
of climate we wind up with is largely determined by the total amount
of carbon we emit into the atmosphere as CO2 in the time
before we finally kick the
fossil fuel habit (by choice or by virtue
of simply running
out).
In the briefest
of descriptions, Rado claimed the video presented biased information from scientists who were funded by
fossil fuel interests, but it turned
out he voiced a dislike
of the video
before viewing it, had a preconceived notion about the funding
of skeptic scientists, and failed to disclose precisely who his complaint reviewer William Connolley was.
Reality: Whilst hominids originated in Africa, they migrated and colonised many latitudes - including temperate and cool zones, well
before the
fossil fuels were widely used - as fake - sceptics are fond
of pointing
out, they even colonised southern Greenland on a temporary basis during Medieval times.
The other is to capture
fossil fuel emissions
before they enter the atmosphere, or to suck them directly
out of the air — a technique known as carbon dioxide removal.
For a 1.5 - degree goal, large - scale negative emissions activity would need to begin soon,
before 2030, and expand rapidly, so that by 2050 or sooner the amount
of carbon sucked
out of the atmosphere would have to exceed the amount emitted into it from
fossil fuel burning.
Also, given the rate
of production and absorption, do you have a link to support the assertion that CO2 will ever get to 2000 ppm
before we run
out of fossil fuels or are forced to scale down?
There is no doubt in my mind a) that we will not reach anywhere near this level by 2100 as VP's extrapolation projects b) that there will be an economically and politically viable alternate to
fossil fuels long
before they run
out (there already is in nuclear for the biggest part
of the future load)
Richard Heinberg and several
of his associates from the Post Carbon Institute are one
of the groups that is pushing the notion
of a
fossil fuel industry valuation bubble, and another group is the UK - based Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, which put
out a 40 - page scientific report on this very subject
before Al Gore more recently touched on the same subject.
Thus from a logical and scientific standpoint, Germany should first phase -
out the use
of more dangerous and environmentally damaging
fossil fuels before pursuing a phase -
out of nuclear power.
Actually that much
of the party line is probably true but the empirical evidence says anthropogenic CO2 isn't going to do the trick
before we run
out economically recoverable
fossil fuels.
As opposed to «We got ta stop using
fossil fuels immediately or the positive feedbacks (never
before in evidence) resulting from injecting ACO2 into the atmosphere will cause the Temperature
of the Earth to shoot up wildly, thus wiping
out the biosphere and all that dwell therein.»
Just so, the era
of relying primarily on
fossil fuels can end — with peace and prosperity intact — long
before we run
out of oil.
Before the show had even gone to air, the program was causing controversy with commentators — myself and others including Clive Hamilton, Stephan Lewandowsky and Michael Ashley — pointing
out its format gave the false impression
of there being a legitimate scientific debate about
fossil fuel burning causing climate change.
For example, even
before the new proposed levels were announced, Colorado's Front Range region is
out of compliance with the current rules, «driven largely by emissions from
fossil fuel processing.»
Scientists say unabated
fossil fuel use must be phased
out well
before the end
of the century to limit global temperature rise to 2C — the international goal.
The findings suggest the most polluting industries had started fighting climate change
before President Donald Trump took office and signaled he'd back
out of U.S. participation in the Paris accord on limiting
fossil fuel emissions.
We need to stop using them long
before they run
out: particularly,
before the worldâ $ ™ s massive reserves
of coal and unconventional
fossil fuels are tapped.
Few will argue that we can put CO2 into the atmosphere at present rates forever, either we'll run
out of fossil fuels, or there'll be a point where adding further CO2 clearly will be the more expensive option, and in the extreme (there's plenty
of carbon in the Earth's crust, and failing that the solar system) it'll turn the Earth into Venus eventually, and probably
before that the CO2 itself would start getting toxic (at a few ten thousand ppm it ought to get to levels that'll kill us).
It is because so little energy is being used, and because alternatives are ruled
out ab initio (the model contains no nuclear power, and no technology for storing away carbon emissions from
fossil fuels; natural gas prices rise strongly and coal plants are retired well
before they are clapped
out) that the model ends up with such a high percentage
of renewables; indeed given the premise it's slightly surprising it doesn't end up with even more.
Generically, what is required to head off the disaster is to phase
out fossil fuel use ASAP, reforest / afforest ASAP, and perhaps take extraordinary measures to both remove carbon from the atmosphere and reduce solar influx to quench the self - sustaining feedback mechanisms
before they get further
out of control.
Getting
out of poverty makes people more resilient to climate change (an ongoing phenomenon which was occurring even
before fossil fuels came about).
Hundreds and even thousands
of years will pass
before the full aftermath from our
fossil fuel orgy plays
out, but we'll see plenty
of nasty surprises in feedback loops and tipping points this century, perhaps most notably sea level rise.