But, you do realize that literally
any outcome over the short term gives us zero information on the effectiveness of his actions?
Not exact matches
Historically - reliable valuation measures are remarkably useful in projecting long -
term and full - cycle market
outcomes, but the behavior of the market
over shorter segments of the market cycle is driven by the psychological inclination of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.
But understand that even when valuations don't «work»
over shorter segments of the market cycle, the longer -
term and full - cycle
outcomes of hypervaluation are predictably brutal.
All assets move too unpredictably to discount the role of luck in the
outcome of your rebalancing
over the
short to medium
term.
While long -
term and full - cycle market
outcomes are tightly determined by market valuations, the effect of valuations on
outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle depends on the psychological preference of investors toward speculation or risk aversion.
The central message of our discipline is that valuations are enormously informative about prospects for long -
term and full - cycle returns, but that
outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle are driven by changes in the psychological preferences of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.
And if I could talk to Joel right now, I would do my best to articulate the importance of having faith in a systemic plan and prioritizing it
over whimsical
short -
term outcomes.
Over the last decade there have been multiple large studies trying to determine a clinical use for iNO in preterm neonates, but despite evidence of
short -
term benefit, this drug has not been shown to improve long -
term outcomes in preemies.
But if the goal is improving student
outcomes over the long
term — not just generating
short -
term excitement — then policymakers may want to tie «free college» proposals to broader investments in higher education that make the college experience better, not just cheaper.
That prioritization of long -
term over short -
term outcomes likely pleases their customers: parents.
Many would think such a cooling
outcome to be extremely unlikely (in the deep psyche impossible), but until the models have the ability to predict the
short term variations occurring
over the time interval of one year, we don't know how well the models have estimated natural variability.
Within ensembles,
short term outputs are sensitive to initial conditions, but
over the longer
term, the models tend to converge toward similar
outcomes rather than diverge.
Cross-sectional and
short -
term longitudinal studies have demonstrated that physical maltreatment is related to problems that arise in close temporal proximity to the occurrence of the abuse, such as juvenile delinquency, psychopathology, and disrupted social relationships.7, 8 It is not clear from these studies, however, whether early physical maltreatment plays an enduring role in the development of later adjustment problems in adolescence or whether negative
outcomes are the temporary result of trauma that will diminish in importance
over time.