The one has not been proven to cause the other, and
the outcomes of a warmer climate could as easily be beneficial as otherwise.
Not exact matches
To date, concerns about
climate change's impact on agriculture have focused on drought — another likely
outcome of warming world.
It may be that many
of the changes have limited predictability, which means that we should be prepared for a range
of climate outcomes associated with global
warming,» said Clement.
Beyond preparing for the inevitable, the report also calls for
climate mitigation, including implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement in order to have «any hope
of avoiding catastrophic effects from sea - level rise and other
outcomes of global
warming.»
-- 7) Forest models for Montana that account for changes in both
climate and resulting vegetation distribution and patterns; 8) Models that account for interactions and feedbacks in
climate - related impacts to forests (e.g., changes in mortality from both direct increases in
warming and increased fire risk as a result
of warming); 9) Systems thinking and modeling regarding
climate effects on understory vegetation and interactions with forest trees; 10) Discussion
of climate effects on urban forests and impacts to cityscapes and livability; 11) Monitoring and time - series data to inform adaptive management efforts (i.e., to determine
outcome of a management action and, based on that
outcome, chart future course
of action); 12) Detailed decision support systems to provide guidance for managing for adaptation.
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are presently increasing every year at an accelerating rate, and it is extremely unlikely that humanity will collectively do what is necessary to not only stop that growth in CO2 emissions, but reverse it, and then reduce emissions by 80 percent or more within 5 to 10 years, which is what mainstream
climate scientists say is needed to avoid the worst
outcomes of anthropogenic global
warming.
However, in (a) blueprints smacks more
of engineering solutions than scientific ones making me very uncomfortable with that choice and (b) since the challenge
of global
warming and
climate change is the equivalent
of fighting many battles in a virtual war with very unpredictable
outcomes, chaos is the more likely
outcome.
Many seasoned participants in nearly two decades
of treaty negotiations aimed at blunting global
warming had predicted this
outcome, despite a pledge by negotiators at
climate talks in Bali, Indonesia, in 2007 to seal a deal in Denmark this December.
Back in 1988, this was a core message
of James Hansen
of NASA, who compared the impact
of global
warming on year - to - year conditions to the progressive loading
of a pair
of climate «dice» toward hot
outcomes.
But while plenty
of other
climate scientists hold firm to the idea that the full range
of possible
outcomes, including a disruptively dangerous
warming of more than 4.5 degrees C. (8 degrees F.), remain in play, it's getting harder to see why the high - end projections are given much weight.
I've written an essay for Wednesday's Op - Ed page offering a short look at extreme weather in a
warming world and the two prongs
of the
climate challenge — the need to limit human vulnerability to the worst the
climate system can throw at us and to curb emissions that are steadily raising the odds
of unwelcome
outcomes, particularly extreme heat and either too much, or too little, water.
As I've written before, while 20 years
of intensifying inquiry has greatly reinforced confidence that humans are influencing
climate in ways that could profoundly disrupt human and natural affairs, it has not substantially clarified
climate outcomes that matter most: how fast and far temperatures and seas will rise in the next 100 years, how hurricanes will respond to
warming, how regional conditions will change.
The unequivocal and indisputable
climate research clearly demonstrates that
climate change is constant; and when combined with historical accounts and anecdotal evidence,
warmer climates tend to favor prosperity and peace
outcomes while cooler periods provide more
of the opposite.
Just to add the appropriate emphasis to what the past 164 years
of empirical science tell us, the «C3» estimator replica above also reveals what would happen to «global
warming» if the entire U.S. economy shuts down for one year, eliminating some 5.8 billion tonnes
of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion - again, it's a nothing - significant
outcome for the
climate.
The
outcome of this «scientific» art has been the reduction
of public belief in global
warming and
climate change «crisis.»
Clearly, however, far more than a super majority
of climate scientists consider global
warming to be potentially a very serious threat; and among those who disagree, few (1.16 %) would consider such an
outcome to be unrealistic.
The proponents
of global
warming CO2
climate change science has mutated to a sickness as this hidden report verifies where not allowing factual science air insults human advancement and exposes the intents
of the political correct and their miscreants desire to produce
outcomes which lie behind reason.
The Talanoa dialogue, an important
outcome from this COP, switches on the ambition ratchet mechanism
of the Paris Agreement and sets into motion the
climate pact that governments promised to abide by two years ago to keep
warming below 1.5 °C.
This strategy is why
climate contrarians are sometimes referred to as «delayers», because they argue that we should delay action until we can be more certain
of the human - caused global
warming outcome.
As Robert Pindyck demonstrates, the
climate models projecting future
warming and associated environmental impacts are crippled by what we don't know about a host
of things, including — most importantly — the feedback loops that might produce catastrophic
outcomes.
FWIW it is my prejudice that the AR4 claim «very likely» «most
of the
warming» etc. is sufficiently weak to be safe against arguments that do not rely on very high sensitivities e.g. a random walk, with the possible exceptions
of some unappreciated dominant forcing or that old standby that «the
climate is chaotic to a degree that permits all possible
outcomes».
More striking, California's Global
Warming Solutions Act (Assembly Bill 32, or AB 32) will likely lead to the creation
of a very ambitious set
of climate initiatives, including a statewide cap ‑ and ‑ trade system (unless it's stopped by ballot initiative — Proposition 23 — or a new Governor, depending on the
outcome of the November 2010 elections).
Just because great
climate flips can happen in response to global
warming doesn't mean that they are the most probable
outcome of our current situation, what one might «forecast» (that's one
of the reasons why I've been careful not to «predict» a cooling in the next century).
The reasons for that are many: the timid language
of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called «scientific reticence» in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group
of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn't even see
warming as a problem worth addressing; the way that
climate denialism has made scientists even more cautious in offering speculative warnings; the simple speed
of change and, also, its slowness, such that we are only seeing effects now
of warming from decades past; our uncertainty about uncertainty, which the
climate writer Naomi Oreskes in particular has suggested stops us from preparing as though anything worse than a median
outcome were even possible; the way we assume
climate change will hit hardest elsewhere, not everywhere; the smallness (two degrees) and largeness (1.8 trillion tons) and abstractness (400 parts per million)
of the numbers; the discomfort
of considering a problem that is very difficult, if not impossible, to solve; the altogether incomprehensible scale
of that problem, which amounts to the prospect
of our own annihilation; simple fear.
«Sea - level rise is a potentially disastrous
outcome of climate change,» says Horton, «as rising temperatures melt land - based ice, and
warm ocean waters.»
Even with a long - term record stretching across 12 centuries decades, the scientists were unable to find any validation
of expert and
climate model predictions that CO2 greenhouse gas
warming produces an
outcome of increased severe flooding.
The report says that the world is ill - prepared to manage the risks from a changing
climate, and that if
warming proceeds along the high end
of the possible range
of outcomes,
climate change may overwhelm even the most well - prepared and wealthy nations.
In response to the demonstration that the
climate models make specific predictions about the behaviour
of the tropical troposphere that run counter to the conventional data sets, the modelers» defence was: but we all know the models are actually so uncertain and tunable that they could generate any
outcome, therefore they can not conflict with the data, so there's no need to doubt the hypothesis
of strong CO2
warming.
The study
of climate - induced changes in key ecosystem processes (Scholze et al., 2005) considers the distribution
of outcomes within three sets
of model runs grouped according to the amount
of global
warming they simulate: < 2 °C, 2 - 3 °C and > 3 °C.