Sentences with phrase «output gap»

The monetary policy people think about output gaps and inflation, and the financial stability people think about asset prices and leverage and how to strengthen resilience.

More normal economic growth would eliminate the so - called output gap — the difference between what the economy can produce and what it is producing.

If there's a reduction, it'll be because of a too - wide output gap that needs more help to close over the projection horizon.

Inflation will start moving up as the GDP gap / output gap closes and productivity starts moving towards capacity.

We still see the world being in the very early stages of monetary policy normalization, with the closing of output gaps having been slow and gradual.

The faster - than - anticipated closing of Canada's output gap in 2017 drove the BoC to raise rates twice this summer, fully reversing the 50 basis points of emergency cuts introduced in 2015.

Hard to measure output gap.

Robson belongs to the camp that expects Canada's strengthening economy to force Poloz to move the rate in the middle of 2015, while Lee predicts the rapidly shrinking output gap will spur an increase as early as this spring.

Below is a figure from this article that compares the real - time and final measures of the U.S. output gap.

Thereby, the Bank of Japan means to secure low or negative real interest rates and set in motion a self - reinforcing dynamics of rising inflation expectations, an improving output gap, and broad actual increases in prices and wages (view post here).

Glass half empty: The Bank of Canada is sticking with its old paradigm that a narrowing output gap means inflation is coming.

In addition, the EM growth shock led to a widening in EM output gaps during 2014 - 16.

If such thinking is correct, the U.S. economy would indeed be facing an enormous output gap.

They've not been large enough to keep the economy from growing and unemployment from falling, but remember, it's year eight of an economic expansion and we've still not fully closed the GDP output gap (and that's even the case as potential GDP has been lowered).

Yes, the G7 output gap — the difference between actual output and economic potential — is shrinking as the U.S. economy has joined Germany, the UK and Canada in running near full capacity.

While the sizeable output gap has significantly contributed to this outcome, other factors have also been important: non-oil import prices have been declining (in line with the exchange rate appreciation), deregulation in the service sector has dampened prices, and food prices have been lowered by favourable weather conditions.

Its preferred output gap models are deeply flawed and troublingly unreliable, obfuscating uncertainty and masking policy bias.

Morgan Stanley estimates that more than two - thirds to three quarters of the $ 2.5 trillion output gap endured this decade can be traced to man - made policy missteps: fiscal austerity, growing income inequality, regulation and investment policy.

In Global Macro Shifts, we have developed an extensive and detailed analysis of inflation determinants in the United States and globally: recent inflation developments, a rising global and US output gap, the continuing tightening of a US labor market that is quickly reaching full employment, base effects from rock - bottom commodity prices, and the potential pressures from a massive monetary overhang and historically low velocity and money multipliers.

Our econometric analysis shows that global factors play a dominant role in driving inflation at the individual country level; our measure of the global output gap has begun to increase, and should rise further as emerging markets recover, exerting upward pressure on inflation rates.

Then, like now, an ongoing secular bull market was enjoying a deregulatory tailwind, a weak U.S. dollar, a relatively stable interest rate environment, and solid organic real growth that led to a collapsing output gap.

Canadian economy still facing output gap

The chart shows estimates by the International Monetary Fund of output gaps and credit gaps during that period; while such estimates are obviously imprecise, they suggest that in most of those countries, inflation targeting and financial stability may have been complementary, rather than conflicting goals.

Morgan Stanley analyst Gerard Minack is always an intriguing read: In his latest note he talks about output gaps and fiscal policy, and argues that fiscal policy has been particularly robust during this slump, in part because advanced economies have seen such a big gap between potential output and actual output.

Estimates of the so - called output gap and structural budget balance would give parliamentarians a better sense of the government's policy stance.

I am equally sceptical of a mechanical relationship between increased spending, a shrinking output gap and higher inflation.

set in motion a self - reinforcing dynamics of rising inflation expectations, an improving output gap, and broad actual increases in prices and wages

Broader «output gap» measures suggest dwindling or even zero spare capacity in most developed - market economies.

The difference between that point and current production — the output gap — likely won't close until sometime in 2017, according to the Bank of Canada's new forecast.

Policy makers now assume the «output gap» will close in the first half of next year, compared with a previous estimate of the middle of 2018.

One metric the Bank of Canada employs to assess the economy is the output gap — a measure of the country's actual gross domestic product compared to its potential.

The output gap — the difference between the level of GDP the economy can produce without triggering inflation and what it actually is producing — widened in the first half of the year; the Bank of Canada now says it will close in the middle of 2017, rather than in the early part of that year.

Prime - age employment rates have recovered quite a bit from the recession and are consistent with what they were in 2005 - 2006 — which is the last time the output gap was near zero.

The first is that the years immediately preceding the 2008 - 9 recession were not normal times in Canada; commodity prices were in the stratosphere, and the Bank of Canada's estimates for the output gap suggest that the economy was operating significantly above capacity.

The last time the output gap was near zero for any length of time was 2005 - 6.

The output gap — the difference between current economic output and the estimated level that would stoke inflation — will now close in mid-2018, «materially later» than previously thought, the statement said.

Ted Carmichael, an independent economist who formerly worked at Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System and JPMorgan Chase, notes that the output gap — the difference between current production and the level of output the Bank of Canada estimates the economy can sustain without triggering inflation — was 2.2 % at the end of the first quarter, compared with 1.1 % at the end of 2014.

Core inflation is close to 2 per cent as the effects of the lower dollar and the output gap continue to offset each other.

Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty.

We expect inflation to return to 2 per cent in a sustainable way as the output gap closes.

The Bank's current base case projection shows the output gap closing later than was anticipated in October, around the end of 2017.

Would the Fed's monetary stimulus still be closing an output gap and putting millions of Americans back to work in the process?

Relatively sluggish growth implies that the output gap will be closed very gradually.

If the severity of the downturns is reduced and the economy operates with a smaller output gap, then the level of income over time is, on average, higher.

Chair Yellen, with real growth over the recovery a little slower than we thought, output gaps and job market slack still on the scene, prices appearing to decelerate and wages / compensation revealing little in the way of threatening pressures, try as I might — and I repeat, I'm solidly in your camp — I don't see the rationale for tightening, even a little.

The result is that the «output gap» — that is, the difference between actual output and the output achieved at the highest resource utilization rate consistent with price stability — has climbed sharply.

Its policy prescription is based on the current size of the output gap and the deviation of current inflation from the Fed's objective, not on how these variables are likely to evolve in the future.

This means a policy approach that responds appropriately to important factors beyond the two parameters of the Taylor Rule — the output gap estimate and the rate of inflation.