Morgan Stanley's Chief European Economist, Elga Bartsch, says the leave will likely trigger a downturn, if not
outright recession in Europe, and resurrect concerns about a euro break - up.
Combining the plausible ranges of employment and productivity growth in the coming years (but ignoring the possibility
of outright recession), the bounds of average U.S. economic growth over the coming 8 years range between 0.7 % annually to an extremely optimistic 3.2 % annually, with a likely midpoint of less than 2 % annually for real GDP.
Either way, we can probably expect more sluggishness or
outright recession in China during the next year or two.
The good news, Hamilton told Maclean's, is that this most recent spike in energy prices shouldn't result in
another outright recession.
US GDP: 2.12 %, again with a very wide range, but interestingly, nobody was predicting a negative GDP or
an outright recession.
The end result is high prices around the world, and a slowdown in international growth — or even
an outright recession.
It came up with four scenarios, from simple tariffs to
an outright recession.
The domestic news here in the United States continues to be lukewarm at best, China continues to revise its growth estimates downward, and the European Union is probably in
outright recession.
These may exhibit some level of negative correlation with the economy — companies dealing with distressed consumers & businesses can particularly thrive in a bad economy, or
outright recession.