Not exact matches
LONDON, April 30 - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury
yield's rise above 3 percent last week for the first time in
over four years may be cause for concern across wide swathes of financial markets, such as
equities and emerging markets.
«If we assume extremely pessimistic nominal earnings growth of 3 %
over the coming decade and a compression in the price - earnings ratio to 10,
equities would still deliver returns above current bond
yields.
For, with long - term taxable bonds
yielding 5 percent and long - term tax - exempt bonds 3 percent, a business operation that could utilize
equity capital at 10 percent clearly was worth some premium to investors
over the
equity capital employed.
When you purchase a broad swath of
equities, say an S&P 500 index fund, the returns you can expect
over the next decade or so comprise four building blocks: the starting dividend
yield, projected growth in real earnings per share, expected inflation, and the expected change in «valuation» — that is, the expansion or contraction in the price / earnings (P / E) multiple.
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters)- The 10 - year U.S. Treasury
yield's rise above 3 percent last week for the first time in
over four years may be cause for concern across wide swathes of financial markets, such as
equities and emerging markets.
Concern remained
over higher bond
yields after the
yield on the U.S. 10 - year Treasury breached 3 percent level on Tuesday, making
equities relatively less attractive.
However, when considered as an alternative to classic
equity financing, token sales
yield a > 100X increase in the available base of buyers and a > 1000X improvement in the time to liquidity
over traditional methods for startup finance.
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day...
equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run
over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve see's this and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of wage growth rising bond
yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher and
equities will have revelations as to what that means for valuations
Against this environment, our strategists remain bullish on
equities and continue to favor emerging market currencies and, in the fixed income space, prefer local markets
over external debt and maintain their higher -
yielding yet better - quality bias.
To the extent that lower Treasury
yields are even weakly associated with higher
equity valuations, recognize that this effect is also expressed
over time as lower subsequent stock market returns.
More than $ 8 billion has flowed into dividend
equities since the Brexit vote, according to EPFR, and we prefer dividend growth
over dividend
yield.
Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening
yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation - linked
over nominal bonds)-- and in
equity markets, picking value
over growth shares.
Finally, modestly higher bond
yields support our view that the rotation into value and momentum shares away from low - volatility
equities likely isn't
over.
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared
equity and bond
yields over multiple business cycles and found that the 10 - year Treasury
yield might have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is likely this year) before compelling a year - end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current year - end target of 2800 - 2900.2
The average investment - grade (high -
yield) bond trades on less than 32 % (36 %) of days
over the prior six months — liquidity in corporate bonds was considerably lower than in traditional listed
equity markets.
In addition, sovereign wealth funds — which generally diversify their portfolios to include a small portion of alternate assets such as gold, private
equity and real estate — are likely to raise their allocations following the low
yield in government bonds
over the last couple of years.
Wilson recommends investors emphasize international
over domestic
equities and upgrade their bond portfolios, avoiding high
yield.
The Index measures the performance of a selected group of
equity securities issued by companies that have provided relatively high dividend
yields on a consistent basis
over time.
UBS analysts pinpointed a key abnormality in last week's correction: «a U.S.
equity decline of 7.4 %, as seen
over the last five working days, has historically been associated with a high
yield spread widening of 75 — 80 basis points... The actual move has only been 21 basis points.»
Higher risk (higher
yield) bonds tend to be closely correlated with
equities which means that such bonds do not really dampen volatility or smooth out returns
over time when combined with
equities in a portfolio.
Growth in U.S. real GDP would fall 2.7 %
over the three years that follow a vote, with a corresponding decline of 13.1 % in U.S.
equities and a contraction of 0.53 % on the
yields in U.S. corporate bonds.
Sentiment in financial markets has continued to improve
over the past three months, with bond
yields in most major markets rising and
equity markets rallying further.
If one excludes the 1980 - 1997 period, the historical correlation between 10 - year Treasury
yields and 10 - year prospective (and actual realized)
equity returns is actually slightly negative
over the past century, and is only weakly positive in post-war data.
The graph below shows the performance of Treasuries,
equities and high
yield over the past year.
Our expectation of higher
yields underpins our overall preference for
equities over bonds.
Before founding Third Point, Daniel worked in the securities industry for
over a decade, gaining dedicated experience in
equities, distressed debt, high -
yield bond sales, risk arbitrage and private investments.
«Policies and practices put in place by city leaders a number of years ago have
yielded greater
equity over time, although charter students continue to receive less public funding than their peers in district schools,» he said.
Long - dated U.S. Treasuries are up 4 %, high
yield 6 %, the S&P 500 nearly 10 % and emerging market
equities over 17 % in U.S. dollar terms.
Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening
yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation - linked
over nominal bonds)-- and in
equity markets, picking value
over growth shares.
The graph below shows the performance of Treasuries,
equities and high
yield over the past year.
Using
yields derived from the Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market
over the past 20 years,
equity multiples have been positively correlated with real long - term interest rates.
Falling almost 12 % in
yield since the peak, that multiplies the value of the bond more than 16 times, far more than the
equity market
over a similar period, including dividends.
The Horizons Enhanced Income
Equity ETF (HEX), for example, currently sports a
yield of
over 10 %, yet its total return
over the 12 months ending in June was — 11.8 %, worse than the overall Canadian market.
Over the (very) long run,
equities out - perform bonds and cash, as is evident below, but may not be practical alternative to bonds for many investors, because of investment horizon, risk - tolerance, dependence on
yield, or all the above.
Over the years, Kevin has developed a strategy that aligns CWP as an institutional management firm offering separately managed ETF and
Equity portfolios that are complemented with a
yield enhancing covered call strategy.
For illustrative purposes I have taken the starting amount of $ 6,600 and factored in 5 % stock appreciation on a 3.5 %
yielding equity that grows its dividend at a modest 5 % per year
over 30 years.
For example, we might want to predict the likelihood that a company's stock will outperform
over the next few years based on a fixed number of financial ratios (like the stock's return - on -
equity, earnings
yield, and debt - to -
equity).
The Australian
equity market now offers a dividend
yield of
over 4 %, more than double that of the U.S. market.
Over the last two years, though, high
yield spreads have compressed by nearly 400 basis points, 1 which reduced the long - term attractiveness of high
yield relative to
equities.
For example, if you invest in
equities, and the
yield curve says to expect an economic slowdown
over the next couple of years, you might consider moving your allocation of
equities toward companies that perform relatively well in slow economic times, such as consumer staples.
Mr. Dondero has
over 30 years of experience in the credit and
equity markets, focused largely on high -
yield and distressed investing.
I believe I can cope with the volatility of
equities and as they are most likely to provide the steadily rising income
over the longer term - via higher
yielding shares or income inv.
For example, if we assume extremely pessimistic nominal earnings growth of 3 %
over the coming decade and a compression in the price - earnings ratio to 10,
equities would still deliver returns above current bond
yields.
The S&P
yield reduction
over the past year is primarily attributable to these rising
equity values.
Keep some money for self to enjoy the fruits of investment and simultaneously ensure that the switch -
over to
equity oriented scheme will
yield not less than 15 %
over the long term and I live guilt free.
Despite recent
equity market volatility, high
yield has stabilized
over the past week and
yields remain attractive, according to data accessible via Bloomberg.
Despite «not viewing
equity and fixed income any differently,»
over the trailing 12 months, the fund had only a 1.63 %
yield, quite low for an investment vehicle that is primarily income - oriented.
Yes, sometimes there will be breakdowns in train also, i.e. sometime
equity as an asset class under - perform other asset class like fixed income, but
over a long period of time,
equity as a asset class should
yield inflation adjusted better results.
Which
equity index offers a price / earnings ratio of 14x, a dividend
yield of 2.6 %, and annualized earnings growth
over the past five years of 12 %?
The estimate of 4 %
equity returns
over margin rates, which are higher than bond
yields, is hooey.