If the speculative bubbles and crashes across market history have taught us anything (particularly the repeated episodes of recklessness we've observed
over the past two decades), it's this: regardless of the level of valuation at any point in
time, we have to allow for the potential for investors to adopt a psychological preference toward risk - seeking speculation, and no amount of reason will dissuade them
even when that speculation has already made a collapse inevitable
over a
longer horizon.
For example, you would need to have $ 750,000 invested to safely withdraw 4 % or have $ 1,000,000 if you prefer to withdraw only 3 % to be
even safer
over a
long time horizon.