We know that measures that are insensitive to cyclical profit margin variations (e.g. market cap / GDP, price / revenue) perform strongly
over long horizons of ~ 10 years, and far better than popular, widely - quoted measures that ignore those variations.
Not exact matches
In periods
of rising volatility, pharma companies are often especially vulnerable because
of investors are paying big prices today for therapies expected to pay off
over a
long horizon.
If Exxon's compensation committee wishes to really enforce
longer term views, they must not only do it in the time
horizons over which pay is doled out but also in the time
horizons of the metrics used to determine pay itself.
To help extend your savings at retirement
over a
longer time
horizon, work with an advisor to assess both your investment allocation and your draw - down strategy in relation to the number
of years you expect to live, he said.
Klitgaard and Weir note that macroeconomic models — which often are based on interest rates, prices, and GDP — can help explain exchange rate changes
over long horizons, but do a poor job
of tracking daily, weekly, or monthly changes.
Interestingly enough, it's actually so simple, and so straightforward, that it would have helped almost any investor make quite a bit
of money
over the past couple
of centuries regardless
of market conditions provided he or she had a
long enough time
horizon.
Since a larger share
of deposit rates are fixed than are loan rates, this will overstate the effect on cash flows
over longer time
horizons, though the extent
of this bias has not necessarily changed
over time in an obvious way.
This can be true even for investors today since (
over a relatively
long horizon) the benefit
of the tax deduction can offset the cost
of paying the higher interest rate on interest - only loans that now apply.
By contrast, consider a young worker with a
long time
horizon to save for retirement, expectations
of growing employment income
over time, and an aggressive portfolio allocation
of 80 % stocks and 20 % bonds.
Fidelity believes one
of the best ways to do that
over the
long term is by considering an appropriate amount to invest in a diversified portfolio
of stock mutual funds, exchange - traded funds (ETFs), or individual stocks as you plan and implement an investment strategy that fits your time
horizon, risk preferences, and financial circumstances.
While in this example the difference might be a difference
of less than $ 100
over a year, your investment time
horizon is far
longer than one year.
If the speculative bubbles and crashes across market history have taught us anything (particularly the repeated episodes
of recklessness we've observed
over the past two decades), it's this: regardless
of the level
of valuation at any point in time, we have to allow for the potential for investors to adopt a psychological preference toward risk - seeking speculation, and no amount
of reason will dissuade them even when that speculation has already made a collapse inevitable
over a
longer horizon.
The essential thing to understand about valuations is that while they are highly reliable measures
of prospective
long - term market returns (particularly
over 10 - 12 year
horizons), and
of potential downside risk
over the completion
of any market cycle, valuations are also nearly useless
over shorter segments
of the market cycle.
Currencies are complicated, and we believe that taking FX risk is not rewarded
over the medium to
long - term investment
horizons of most investors.
A three - step process to anticipate and shape change, beginning with the identification
of 70 + macro drivers that were refined into 8 dynamics defining the future for connected consumers, which constituted the basis for a highly immersive two - day Future Forum bringing together 10 outside experts, 13 internal stakeholders and 14 agency partners, from which a consumer - centric company vision and Future Playbook was developed around «4 Big Bets»
over near -, mid - and
long - term
horizons.
That's not just because
of wobbly data and economic risks on the near - term
horizon; it's also because
of the way the Bank has begun to see the Canadian economy evolving
over the
long run.
Over that kind
of longer time
horizon, equity returns are more likely (but not certain) to average out to something that resembles their historical record.
«The
longer you can extend your time
horizon the less competitive the game becomes, because most
of the world is engaged
over a very short time frame» William Browne
a) investing their own money alongside you, so your interests are aligned b) a stake in the company they work at i.e. it is a partnership or employee - owned c) a proven ability to outperform an index
over the
long - term (at least 10 years) d) reasonable charges — preferably no more than a 1 % management fee and no performance fee e) a concentrated, high conviction portfolio i.e. they do not just hug their benchmark f) a low - asset - turnover ratio i.e. they have a
long - term investment
horizon and rarely sell investments g) a proven ability to preserve capital during the bad times h) a stable team who have worked together for a number
of years.
We are certainly not pleased with near - term underperformance, but we remain confident that our focus on business value and our extended investment time
horizon will position the Fund for favorable results
over longer periods
of time.
2) By extending the projection
horizon by an extra market cycle (~ 6 years - the current half - cycle is quite
long - in - the - tooth from a hisorical perspective) the effect
of mean reversion has a greater chance to dominate the occasional noise that emerges (e.g. during the tech bubble)
over shorter
horizons.
At present, investors have no reasonable incentive at all to «lock in» the prospective returns implied by current prices
of stocks or
long - term bonds (though we suspect that 10 - year Treasuries may benefit
over a short
horizon due to continued economic risks and still - unresolved debt concerns in Europe, which has already entered an economic downturn).
Attempting to smooth out the ride for
long - term investors
over their investment time
horizon is important — as it reduces the temptation to abandon a diversified allocation when one asset class is outperforming or underperforming others during a shorter period
of time.
We remain confident that our focus on business value and our extended investment time
horizon will position the Fund for favorable results
over longer periods
of time.
We'll rely on equities and property to keep us ahead
of inflation
over the
long - term and look into more short - term conventional bond funds as our model portfolio's time
horizon ticks down.2
On the basis
of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent
long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just
over zero on that
horizon.
High oil prices may well lead to a collapse in demand
over the
long term, resulting in a speeding up
of the energy transition that most experts see on the
horizon
I think it can work really well
over a really
long time
horizon for an individual investor who isn't trying to make a career out
of this.
While this approach to investing can be challenging at times when we find ourselves on the wrong side
of market trends, our confidence in its efficacy
over a
long - term investment
horizon is unwavering.
In their April 2009 paper entitled «Inflation Hedging for
Long - Term Investors», Alexander Attie and Shaun Roache assess the inflation hedging properties
of traditional asset classes
over different investment
horizons.
So market returns
over a small number
of years can experience enormous swings, but average annual returns appear much more stable when we examine a very
long investment
horizon.
Once it was when from the summit
of a high mountain I looked
over a gashed and corrugated landscape extending to a
long convex
of ocean that ascended to the
horizon, and again from the same point when I could see nothing beneath me but a boundless expanse
of white cloud, on the blown surface
of which a few high peaks, including the one I was on, seemed plunging about as if they were dragging their anchors.
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The challenge
of acting
over a
longer time
horizon is not simply one for this Government, or even just for politics.
A team led by scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found that the type
of plant inputs (that is, root or needle litter) affected total carbon and nitrogen retention
over 10 years, but that soil
horizon (essentially, the layer
of soil, such as the topsoil organic or deeper mineral layers) affected how the litter - derived soil organic material is stabilized in the
long term.
Couple that statement with the fact that many
long - time fans have already expressed concern
over a somewhat limited character roster, dumbed down / more accessible gameplay, the fear
of an Ultimate edition on the
horizon and a lackluster story mode that rather than stand toe to toe with other rival studios (NetherRealm.)
As reform ideas expand from school choice to educational choice — not just where a child learns but how they learn — more research is needed on the accounts to determine how a menu
of educational choices affects student achievement and parent satisfaction
over a
longer time
horizon.
Of course, when you look
over this
longer 15 - year time
horizon, there isn't any deterioration to worry about either.
The
long, wide column flowed
over the rolling landscape, receding into the distance and still visible on the farthest ridge
of the
horizon.
UVXY is intended for short - term investment
horizons, and investors holding shares
over longer - term periods may be subject to increased risk
of loss.
Historically, the outperformance
of value has been associated with a rising interest - rate environment; as the US Federal Reserve Board (sometimes referred to as «the world's central bank» for the far - reaching impact
of its policies) attempts to begin raising rates, we see a potential catalyst for a value recovery
over our
long - term investment
horizon.
Medium - and
long - term bonds are also quite «safe» (
over an investment
horizon of several years).
While factors have exhibited excess risk - adjusted returns
over long time periods as seen above,
over short
horizons factors exhibit significant cyclicality, including periods
of underperformance.
The whole point
of tax - free compounding
over a
long time
horizon is that the young can truly generate huge sums if they max out contributions from day one and also invest wisely in diversified equity - heavy portfolios.
Over the (very)
long run, equities out - perform bonds and cash, as is evident below, but may not be practical alternative to bonds for many investors, because
of investment
horizon, risk - tolerance, dependence on yield, or all the above.
Because earnings measured
over shorter
horizons such as one year are extremely volatile and mean reverting, the ratio
of prices to current earnings does not predict future
long - term returns.
Its unique asset allocation is designed to optimize the goals
of retirement income, return maximization and diversification
of investments to generate
long - term returns, no matter the economic conditions
over the investment
horizon.
Studies after studies have demonstrated conclusively that the primary determinant
of portfolio returns
over a
long investment
horizon is asset allocation with little benefit ascribed to stock selection.
One rule
of thumb: If you're reinvesting your interest payments, you will benefit
over the
long haul if interest rates rise, provided your investment time
horizon is
longer than the duration
of your bonds or bond funds.
With a sufficiently
long time
horizon, there is little risk to stock investing, because the impacts
of stock volatility become less
over time.