He added that the professor's concessions
over medieval warming were «significant» because they were his first public admission that the science was not settled.
For this reason, the debate
over the Medieval Warm Period has become intrinsically linked with the man - made global warming debate.
(http://www.skepticalscience.com/Do-critics-of-the-hockey-stick-realise-what-theyre-arguing-for.html) If for some reason, temperatures
over the Medieval Warm Period turn out to be warmer than previously thought, this means climate sensitivity is actually greater than 3 °C.
Not exact matches
Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or
Medieval Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings
over the past 1000 years, and the substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.
Proxies from all
over the world have shown that global climate was as
warm or even warmer during the so - called Medieval Warm Period back around a thousand ye
warm or even
warmer during the so - called
Medieval Warm Period back around a thousand ye
Warm Period back around a thousand years.
I recently looked through the arguments on the
Medieval warm period business
over at «co2science.org» — here's the link, though I hesitate to give it any more publicity:
The problem with odds for the
medieval warm period, as you have described it, is not possible because the
warming was localized, patchy
over time, and not «extreme.»
In so far as M&M are trying to distort the climate data
over the last 1000 years to show that the so - called «
Medieval Warm Period» replicates or exceeds the current
warming — and so natural variability could possibly account for that
warming — I thought it worthwhile to put out some information about
Medieval climate.
There is no (or at least little / uncertain) connection between climate temperatures and grape growing in
medieval, but there is much joy in the Oregon vinewards
over global
warming: is this not having AND eating our cake?
Having read the comments here and in Jones and Mann (2004) «Climate
over past millennia», I have been reflecting on some of the comments about the hockey stick wrt the
Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA).
A globally
warm medieval period could be a simple forced response to increased solar, in which case it doesn't imply any larger intrinsic variability than already assumed, and since solar has been pretty much constant
over the last 50 years, improvements to our understanding of solar forced climate changes are irrelevant for the last few decades.
Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or
Medieval Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings
over the past 1000 years, and the substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.
To answer the question of the
Medieval Warm Period, more than 1,000 tree - ring, ice core, coral, sediment and other assorted proxy records spanning both hemispheres were used to construct a global map of temperature change
over the past 1,500 years (Mann 2009).
The
Medieval Warm Period saw warm conditions over a large part of the North Atlantic, Southern Greenland, the Eurasian Arctic, and parts of North Amer
Warm Period saw
warm conditions over a large part of the North Atlantic, Southern Greenland, the Eurasian Arctic, and parts of North Amer
warm conditions
over a large part of the North Atlantic, Southern Greenland, the Eurasian Arctic, and parts of North America.
All of the studies we analysed reported at least three distinct climatic periods
over the last millennium — two
warm periods (the «Medieval Warm Period» and the «Current Warm Period») and an intervening cool period (the «Little Ice Age&raqu
warm periods (the «
Medieval Warm Period» and the «Current Warm Period») and an intervening cool period (the «Little Ice Age&raqu
Warm Period» and the «Current
Warm Period») and an intervening cool period (the «Little Ice Age&raqu
Warm Period») and an intervening cool period (the «Little Ice Age»).
However, there is still disagreement
over whether a
warm period around 1000 years ago (the «Medieval Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&raq
warm period around 1000 years ago (the «
Medieval Warm Period») was similar, warmer or cooler than the «Current Warm Period&raq
Warm Period») was similar,
warmer or cooler than the «Current
Warm Period&raq
Warm Period».
From the
warmer climates of Roman times when vineyards flourished in England and Wales to the colder conditions that led to crop failure, famine and pandemics in early
medieval times, Europe's climate has varied
over the past three millennia.
If she went back beyond the
Medieval Warming Period she would also see a different type of disordered pattern when Type B AMP events take
over.
The AMO during the Little Ice Age was characterized by a quasi-periodicity of about 20 years, while the during the
Medieval Warm Period the AMO oscillated with a period of about 45 to 65 years... The observed intermittency of these modes
over the last 4000 years supports the view that these are internal ocean - atmosphere modes, with little or no external forcing... However, the geographic variability of these periodicities indicated by ice core data is not captured in model simulations.»
There are peer - reviewed studies by
over 750 scientists from
over 450 research institutions in
over 40 countries that have found a
Medieval Warm Period of between 0.1 Â ° and 3.2 Â ° Celsius
warmer than today in every corner of the globe - from Alaska to South Africa, Morocco to New Zealand, Bolivia to China, Egypt to New Guinea... Everywhere they look for it, they find it.
Over the last 1000 years, we see that (again using a reversed scale of C14 as a proxy) solar activity is highly correlated with long term temperature trends (I have used the pre-Mann chart, because while it may
over-emphasize the
Medieval Warm Period, I still think such a period existed).
Current GCM models may have realistic - seeming weather patterns, but are totally incapable of producing phenomena that look like the Holocene (Little Ice Age,
Medieval Warm Period, Roman
Warm Period, Holocene Optimum, the steady decline of temperature on average
over the last 3,000 years, etc.) The Climate Science community has, instead, taken the path of trying to claim that these swings didn't occur (Michael Mann's «Hockey Stick», etc.) This does not give me a lot of confidence in the rest of their «science».
And that there is good evidence for a
medieval warm period and much cooler times, for example during the 15th century and early 19th century the Thames River froze
over it was so cold.
A lot I know, but they have 541 studies by
over 900 scientists showing the
medieval warm period was
warmer than now.
Records from all
over the world show, in the peer - reviewed scientific literature — paper after paper after paper — that the
Medieval Warm Period was real.
64) Michael Mann of Penn State University has actually shown that the
Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age did in fact exist, which contrasts with his earlier work which produced the «hockey stick graph» which showed a constant temperature
over the past thousand years or so followed by a recent dramatic upturn.
I can produce 30 graphs from different scientific papers from all around the world from ocean sediments, from Lake Vikal, from the Alps, from all
over the place establishing that the
Medieval Warm Period was real and it existed.
The suggestion that recent
warming is anthropogenic due to divergence from a simple 60/20 year curve fit
over a mere 100 years ignores prior divergence from both competing models of distantly past temperature, one being a hockey stick that shows a slow decline instead of incline prior 1850 and the other showing two similar «non-cyclical» spikes in the Roman and
medieval periods.
MS: This group, who has now been in negative light in public, I know them and I have discussed with them, it has been slightly hard for them
over the years... They have been somehow skeptical about this
Medieval Warm Period and have tried to hide it to some extent.
The hockey stick pattern also shows up in the following papers: «
Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay» «Inter-hemispheric temperature variability
over the past millennium»
Thus there is a back and forth in global cloudiness as the Sun's activity level changes
over the decades and centuries — such as during the period covering the
Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the current warm period — through latitudinal shifting of the jet stream tracks and permanent climate zo
Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the current
warm period — through latitudinal shifting of the jet stream tracks and permanent climate zo
warm period — through latitudinal shifting of the jet stream tracks and permanent climate zones.
Whereas the
medieval period is now acknowledged as a time of increased aridity
over western North America, it has more generally been known as a period of
warmer temperatures, especially
over Europe (28, 29).
And he agreed that the debate had not been settled
over whether the
Medieval Warm Period was
warmer than the current period.
This suggests that colder winter temperatures
over the NH continents during portions of the 15th through the 17th centuries (sometimes called the Little Ice Age) and
warmer temperatures during the 12th through 14th centuries (the putative
Medieval Warm Period) may have been influenced by long term solar variations.»
What we — and other competent researchers — have all found is that the warmth was far more regional than modern warmth, with some large regions, like the tropical Pacific, having been unusually * cold * at the time, and when you average
over the globe, the warmth of the
medieval warm period /
medieval climate anomaly simply doesn't reach modern warmth.
You can't be referring to the 1998 paper, since that only went back to 1400, after the
Medieval Warm Period was
over.
I recently looked through the arguments on the
Medieval warm period business
over at «co2science.org» — here's the link, though I hesitate to give it any more publicity:
And he said that the debate
over whether the world could have been even
warmer than now during the
medieval period, when there is evidence of high temperatures in northern countries, was far from settled.»
So I'd ask you to explain the
Medieval Warm Period or the lack of correlation between the earth's temperature and CO2 levels going back
over the last 650m years, and the circular argument would begin again.
Jones stated in his BBC interview that «There is much debate
over whether the
Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not.