Steve the challenge will be not only finding «snapshots» of those variables, but finding repeated measures
over multidecadal time spans.
My NCM is not dependent on the solar aspect as long as an alternative mechanism can be proposed for the variability of the polar high pressure cells
over multidecadal time periods.
Testing the hypotheses must be accomplished by using «hindcast» simulations that attempt to reproduce past climate behavior
over multidecadal time scales.
Not exact matches
If you are trying to attribute warming
over a short period, e.g. since 1980, detection requires that you explicitly consider the phasing of
multidecadal natural internal variability during that period (e.g. AMO, PDO), not just the spectra
over a long
time period.
Over the 1840 — 2007
time span, two
multidecadal low temperature periods (1861 — 1919 and 1963 — 84) in Greenland coincide with periods of multiple major volcanic eruptions.
(A) coordinate programs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to ensure the timely production and distribution of data and information on global, national, regional, and local climate variability and change
over all
time scales relevant for planning and response, including intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and
multidecadal time periods;
THE ANIMATION OF
MULTIDECADAL CHANGES IN SST ANOMALIES The Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Global Map - Making webpage allows users to create maps of global SST anomalies and maps of the changes in global SST anomalies (based on local linear trends)
over user - specified
time intervals.
I would have though that absent any such additional forcing the El Nino and La Nina would indeed cancel out
over enough
time but as you point out they clearly do not cancel out on
multidecadal timescales.
During this period, the rate of this rise has varied on
multidecadal time scales making identifying exact reasons behind upswings, such has been observed
over the past few decades, difficult.
If a scientist and in particular climate scientists don't understand the wide swings that do occur in data
over short
multidecadal time scales then how can they be trusted with understanding the large climatic swings on longer millenia
time scales or vise - versa.
It seems that every new climate scenario making the media
over the past 20 years they always describe a warm future on a
multidecadal scale ignoring a cool future as if variability didn't exist, but isn't scientific climatology primarily concerned with longer millenia
time scales of a thousand years or more?
Judith's point that AO and PO oscillations and
multidecadal waves which may go in 60, 80 or 100 year cycles is completely ignored by saying that Natural variation should be ignored
over a long
time as it reverts to the mean.
Where the data is more ambiguous is with the long - term
multidecadal trends, where such data is easily contaminated by artifacts due to changes in instrumentation
over time, switches from one satellite to another, etc..