Sentences with phrase «over nominal»

Thus, while TIPS yields are at historically low levels, TIPS continue to look like a clear choice over nominal Treasuries in relative terms, because investors aren't paying a premium for unexpected inflation.

As discussed in my book The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need, the conclusion of the academic research on TIPS is that you should strongly prefer real return bonds over nominal return bonds.

As always, one last point to remember is that one of the advantages of TIPS over nominal bonds is that you can take maturity risk with TIPS and earn the term premium without taking inflation risk.

Within U.S. fixed income, we like Treasury inflation - protected bonds over nominal government debt.

Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation - linked over nominal bonds)-- and in equity markets, picking value over growth shares.

In fact, opting for the iPad over its nominal competition may be about the easiest decision you make.

Against this backdrop, we prefer inflation - protected securities over nominal bonds in the U.S., particularly at the long end of the curve.

Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation - linked over nominal bonds)-- and in equity markets, picking value over growth shares.

Not exact matches

«If we assume extremely pessimistic nominal earnings growth of 3 % over the coming decade and a compression in the price - earnings ratio to 10, equities would still deliver returns above current bond yields.

On Monday, the fund said its portfolio return was 5.1 percent per annum in U.S. dollar nominal terms over the five years to March 31, 2017, helped by the run - up in global financial assets, versus 3.7 percent a year ago.

After accounting for the impacts of measures and adjustments, the Sales Tax revenue base is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.3 per cent over the forecast period, roughly consistent with the average annual growth in nominal consumption of 4.0 per cent over this period.

Assuming nominal returns are 6.5 % a year, a straightforward calculation shows the transactions tax will raise about $ 6.75 from our hypothetical retirement saver over the stipulated 10 - year holding period.

Sack and Elsasser attribute the low relative valuation of TIIS over this period to several factors: investor difficulty adjusting to a new asset class, divergent supply trends between TIIS and nominal Treasuries, and the lower liquidity of indexed debt.

The decline in nominal GDP is about twice as large over the medium term than that used in the Government's latest Update.

Brian Sack and Robert Elsasser explain that over most of the post-1997 period, yields on TIIS have been surprisingly high relative to yields on comparable nominal Treasury securities.

This is clearly not good, because the nominal interest rate can not be adjusted in response to any shocks that hit the economy over the next 70 years.

More stimulus such as infrastructure spending could boost nominal GDP by up to 2.5 percent over the next two years, I estimate.

Nominal economic growth would have to slow very dramatically over the balance of the year — much more than assumed in the November 2012 Update.

The deterioration in revenues over the next four years is much larger than what one would expect given the Department of Finance's «sensitivity» analysis to the changes in nominal GDP.

Other than that one time, over any ten year period, long bonds never showed a negative nominal return.

New jobs need to continue to average 200,000 a month for another year to lure them back, and nominal wages must actually increase over and above 2 % to get back to 2012 and all the way until 2020 to approach levels of 2008, and again that's allowing for half of the lower participation for retiring boomers.

In virtually all cases, the portfolio grew in nominal value, and it usually grew in real value over the 50 year term.

While stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 - year period, the effects of interest rates and nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because higher nominal GDP growth over a given 10 - year horizon is correlated with both higher interest rates and generally lower market valuations at the end of that period.

At longer horizons, the 6.3 % growth rate that we've assumed for nominal GDP over the coming years will begin to bail investors out given enough time, and as a result, our projection for 10 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns peeks its head up above zero, at about 2.4 % annually from current levels.

Phaseouts that are not adjusted for inflation affect more taxpayers over time, as inflation raises nominal incomes and thus lifts more taxpayers above the phaseout thresholds.

As long as this government debt is rolled over continuously at non-repressed interest rates, which will be low as nominal GDP growth drops, China can rebalance the economy without a collapse in growth.

Simply put, one might believe that short - term interest rates will still be zero a decade from now, but if that's true, it will be because nominal growth over the intervening period has also been dismal.

Reflation is alive and well according to our definition: rising wages (albeit slowly this cycle) feeding stronger nominal growth, allowing lingering slack from the last recession to be gradually eliminated, stirring higher inflation over time.

Real bond returns have been high over the past 30 years or so because nominal starting yields were high and inflation has fallen.

Over the long term the nominal return on a duration - managed bond portfolio (or bond index — the duration on those doesn't change very much) converges on the starting yield.

Over the last 12 months nominal GDP has risen at a rate of only 3.3 percent.

These three categories are responsible for 83 percent of nominal spending growth over the next decade and 150 percent of spending growth as a share of GDP (with other budget categories shrinking).

As you can see, since 1994 the growth in nominal retail sales on a year over year basis has been in a downtrend, while the level of consumer credit outstanding as been in a steady uptrend.

Despite some investors waxing rhapsodic about things like «mass collaboration and sharing enabled by technology and global communications networks,» S&P 500 Index revenues have grown at a nominal rate of just 3.2 % annually over the past 20 years, and just 1.6 % annually over the past decade, and that includes the benefit of stock buybacks.

The red line (right scale) is the average annual nominal total return of the S&P 500 over the subsequent 12 - year period.

Even if the growth rates of nominal GDP and U.S. corporate revenues (including foreign revenues) over the coming 20 years match their 4 % growth rate of the past 20 years, and even if the most reliable valuation measures merely touch their historical norms 20 years from today, the S&P 500 Index two decades from now will trade more than 20 % lower than where it trades today.

They also warn that because of extended zero - interest policy by the Fed, security valuations have advanced to the point where prospective nominal total returns on a conventional portfolio mix are likely to average well below 2 % annually, with negative real returns, over the coming 12 - year period.

Over the entire 101 years, nominal (real) compounded returns for U.S. stocks, bonds and bills were 10.1 % (6.7 %), 4.8 % (1.6 %) and 4.1 % (0.9 %), respectively.

Worldwide, based on various studies, the value - over growth premium has been about 3.2 % annualized nominal excess return.

This is the difference between the 5 - year nominal treasury yield and the 5 - year TIPs yield and is suppose to reflect treasury market's forecast for the average annual inflation rate over the next five years.

In contrast, medium - term inflation expectations implied by financial market prices, which are calculated as the difference between nominal and indexed bond yields, have been broadly stable at around 2.6 per cent over the past nine months.

It is possible that measured GDP growth is somewhat overstated due to difficulties in estimating the GDP deflator, which is falling considerably more quickly than other price measures; nominal GDP has grown by a much more modest 0.8 per cent over the year, although this is still an improvement on recent history.

China's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) rebound is reflected in producer prices turning positive year over year for the first time in nearly five years last month.

It does not matter very much if you earned a nominal return of 9.5 % over the last 10 years if inflation was 12 %.

In his article «The Age of Secular Stagnation,» Larry Summers argued that excess of saving over investment is acting as a drag on demand to weigh on growth and inflation, and current monetary stimulus should be expanded to accelerate investments and pull demand forward, such as raising the inflation target or to conduct nominal GDP targeting.

For those that follow Treasury bond fluctuations closely, it's been hard not to notice the persistent under performance in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) versus nominal coupon bonds over the last several years.

In the broadest terms, experts say, proximity to markets and skill clusters will matter more to business over time, and the nominal cost of an hour of labor will matter less.

On a 12 - year horizon, we project likely S&P 500 nominal total returns averaging close to zero, with the likelihood of an interim market loss on the order of 50 - 60 % over the completion of the current cycle.

If I assume a dividend growth rate of 6 percent (about the long - run average *), the current S&P 500 dividend yield of 2.1 percent (from multpl.com), a terminal S&P 500 dividend yield of 4 percent (Hussman says that the dividend yield on stocks has historically averaged about 4 percent), the expected nominal return over ten years is 2.4 percent annually.

We presently estimate a nominal total return on the S&P 500 averaging 4.1 % annually over the coming decade.