Sentences with phrase «over subsequent cycles»

The impact of this global expansion will likely be felt over subsequent cycles, embedding new systematic risk factors for high - yield spreads.

Not exact matches

Moderate interest rates were associated with a whole range of subsequent returns over the following decade, and we know that those outcomes were 90 % correlated with the level of valuations at the beginning of those periods (on reliable measures such as market cap / GDP, price / revenue, Tobin's Q, the margin - adjusted Shiller P / E, and others we've presented over time - see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle).

The only alternative to this view is to imagine that the collapses that followed valuation extremes like 1929, 1973, 2000, and 2007 somehow emerged entirely out of the blue, ignoring the fact that valuations accurately projected likely full - cycle losses, and remained tightly correlated with total returns over the subsequent 10 - 12 year horizons.

In fact, one can show that valuations tend to be best correlated with subsequent market returns over periods representing roughly 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5 typical market cycles (see my 2014 Wine Country Conference presentation, A Very Mean Reversion, for details).

Looking back through history, whenever value stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long - term returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels, value stocks have in the past, on average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades of experience investing through various market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor of long - term value investors.

Kernersville — Heartstrings Subsequent Pregnancy Support Group — Modeled after The Heartstrings Method, each cycle of our Subsequent Pregnancy Support Group meets for eight (8) sessions over a four (4) month period.

On the measures we find most tightly correlated with actual subsequent market returns across history, the S&P 500 is now between 150 % and 170 % above valuation norms that have been approached or breached over the completion of every market cycle in history, including the most recent one.

That move did encourage a short - term market bounce, but the subsequent lesson investors should have learned (and the same one I reviewed in detail last week in relation to the 2007 - 2009 collapse) is also the lesson that investors are likely to experience over the completion of the present cycle: Once extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions are joined by a deterioration in market internals, even easier Fed policy does not provide reliable support for the stock market.

I noted back in 2007, during a similar period of frustration, that less than half of the typical bull market gain is retained by the end of the subsequent bear market - «Once stocks become richly valued, the remaining gains achieved by the market are almost always purely speculative - they are generally erased over the remaining course of the market cycle.

The most significant volcanic gas is CO2, which has been monitored since 1958 through three eruption cycles Volcanic CO2 is greatest shortly after an eruption and then decreases exponentially over the subsequent years.

Subsequent three - axis - stabilized operational GOES - I - class sounders significantly improved upon VAS's precision and have collected long - term records of atmospheric variables and diurnal cycles over the Western Hemisphere through the present time.

Healthcare has dominated many news cycles over the last few years, thanks to the 2016 presidential election and Congress» subsequent attempts to undo the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare.