New gridded daily wind fields from Metop / ASCAT scatterometer retrievals are produced in near real - time
over global ocean with a spatial resolution of 0.25 °.
They are calculated as daily turbulent air - sea fluxes
over global oceans with a spatial resolution of 0.25 ° in longitude and latitude.
Not exact matches
Since these set of
ocean currents are known to influence
global climate, the researchers were interested to see if it correlated
with rainfall in the Western Hemisphere, and how such a correlation could change
over time.
Total column water vapour has increased
over the
global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3 % per decade from 1988 to 2004, consistent in pattern and amount
with changes in SST and a fairly constant relative humidity.
However, atmospheric CO2 content plays an important internal feedback role.Orbital - scale variability in CO2 concentrations
over the last several hundred thousand years covaries (Figure 5.3)
with variability in proxy records including reconstructions of
global ice volume (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005), climatic conditions in central Asia (Prokopenko et al., 2006), tropical (Herbert et al., 2010) and Southern
Ocean SST (Pahnke et al., 2003; Lang and Wolff, 2011), Antarctic temperature (Parrenin et al., 2013), deep - ocean temperature (Elder eld et al., 2010), biogeochemical conditions in the Northet al., 2
Ocean SST (Pahnke et al., 2003; Lang and Wolff, 2011), Antarctic temperature (Parrenin et al., 2013), deep -
ocean temperature (Elder eld et al., 2010), biogeochemical conditions in the Northet al., 2
ocean temperature (Elder eld et al., 2010), biogeochemical conditions in the Northet al., 2008).
«The combined average temperature
over global land and
ocean surfaces tied
with 2010 as the highest on record for April, at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century average.»
You may now understand why
global temperature, i.e.
ocean heat content, shows such a strong correlation
with atmospheric CO2
over the last 800,000 years — as shown in the ice core records.
Some of the very wet years are caused by El Nino, a reversal of winds
over the Pacific
Ocean that has been going on every few years ever since there was a Pacific
Ocean... People... will cite computer models predicting that El Ninos should become stronger or more frequent
with global warming, but there are an awful lot of other models showing that they won't change or that they might even lessen in frequency.
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep ocean to come into balance), and variations over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
Over very long time periods such that the carbon cycle is in equilibrium
with the climate, one gets a sensitivity to
global temperature of about 20 ppm CO2 / deg C, or 75 ppb CH4 / deg C. On shorter timescales, the sensitivity for CO2 must be less (since there is no time for the deep
ocean to come into balance), and variations
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitiv
over the last 1000 years or so (which are less than 10 ppm), indicate that even if Moberg is correct, the maximum sensitivity is around 15 ppm CO2 / deg C. CH4 reacts faster, but even for short term excursions (such as the 8.2 kyr event) has a similar sensitivity.
Limited validations for the results include comparisons of 1) the PERSIANN - derived diurnal cycle of rainfall at Rondonia, Brazil,
with that derived from the Tropical
Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Oceanï ¿ 1/2 Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) radar data; 2) the PERSIANN diurnal cycle of rainfall
over the western Pacific
Ocean with that derived from the data of the optical rain gauges mounted on the TOGA - moored buoys; and 3) the monthly accumulations of rainfall samples from the orbital TMI and PR surface rainfall
with the accumulations of concurrent PERSIANN estimates.
Over the long - term, melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could yield as much as 10 to 14 feet of
global average sea level rise,
with local sea level rise varying considerably depending on land elevation trends,
ocean currents and other factors.
The principal scientific objective is to make
global SSS measurements
over the ice - free
oceans with 150 - km spatial resolution, and to achieve a measurement error less than 0.2 (PSS - 78 [practical salinity scale of 1978]-RRB- on a 30 - day time scale, taking into account all sensors and geophysical random errors and biases.Salinity is indeed a key indicator of the strength of the hydrologic cycle because it tracks the differences created by varying evaporation and precipitation, runoff, and ice processes.
Given that it is all eventually going to come back to the issue of the gradual gain we've been seeing in
ocean heat content
over many decades, the most accurate thing we can say is that 2014's warmth is very consistent
with the general accumulation of energy in Earth's climate system caused by increasing GH gases and is well accounted for dynamically in
global climate models.
Drought is expected to occur 20 - 40 percent more often in most of Australia
over the coming decades.6, 18 If our heat - trapping emissions continue to rise at high rates, 19 more severe droughts are projected for eastern Australia in the first half of this century.6, 17 And droughts may occur up to 40 percent more often in southeast Australia by 2070.2 Unless we act now to curb
global warming emissions, most regions of the country are expected to suffer exceptionally low soil moisture at almost double the frequency that they do now.3 Studies suggest that climate change is helping to weaken the trade winds
over the Pacific
Ocean,
with the potential to change rainfall patterns in the region, including Australia.20, 21,16,22
While the warming of average
global surface temperatures has slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount of heat accumulated by the
global climate has not,
with over 90 percent being absorbed by the
oceans.
Monitoring the
ocean to its full depth
with consistently calibrated instrumentation all
over the globe — and doing so for decades at a time — is critical to track how
global warming impacts the
oceans» ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.
However,
over long time periods, the variation of the
global average temperature
with CO2 concentration depends on various factors such as the placement of the continents on Earth, the functionality of
ocean currents, the past history of the climate, the orientation of the Earth's orbit relative to the Sun, the luminosity of the Sun, the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere, volcanic action, land clearing, biological evolution, etc..
The JGR paper is full of «might have», «may have», «could have» caveats along
with «Its comparison
with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep
ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm / yr to the
global mean SLR or one - third of the altimeter - observed rate of 3.11 ± 0.6 mm / yr
over 1993 — 2008.»
However, for radiosonde observations, which are irregularly spaced
with large gaps
over the
oceans (Figure 2.6),
global - mean temperature is estimated on the basis of those stations operating during the season in question.
The main improvements
with respect to V2 version flux products (Bentamy et al, 2008) are related to the improvements of the specific air humidity estimation from radiometer measurements, to the assessment of the surface winds retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometers, and to the use of the new objective method allowing the calculation of flux analyses
over the
global oceans.
The idea is, if the change in surface temperature
over that period is affected by changes in cloud cover, but changes of the surface temperature associated
with the
ocean warming are small, then changes in cloud cover must be driving the present
global warming.
Consistent
with the
global transfer of excess heat from the atmosphere to the
ocean, and the difference between warming
over land and
ocean, there is some discontinuity between the plotted means of the lower atmosphere and the upper
ocean.
The Nature study suggests that
global warming will mix growing amounts of higher, drier air
with ocean clouds
over the course of the century, thinning out the clouds and reducing their cooling effect.
It suggests that the
ocean's natural variability and change is leading to variability and change
with enhanced magnitudes
over the continents, causing much of the longer - time - scale (decadal)
global - scale continental climate variability.
Some examples from energy balance model calculations indicate that: (1) solar variability has a near -
global response,
with the amplitude of response slightly larger
over land; (2) volcanism has a proportionately larger amplitude of response
over land than
over ocean; and (3) the most oft - cited mode of internal variability, changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, has a hemispheric asymmetry in response.
In general, the pattern of change in return values for 20 - year extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2
with a
global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab
ocean shows moderate increases
over oceans and larger increases
over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
The
global warming century trend that was observed from 1906 to 2005 was 0.74 °C (
with a 90 % uncertainty range of 0.56 °C to 0.92 °C),
with more warming occurring in the Northern
over Southern Hemispheres, and more
over land compared to
oceans.
For
global average sea level, the main control on water density
over these times is
ocean temperature,
with warming causing thermal expansion by roughly 0.4 m per degree C (Levermann et al., 2013).
Over the Pacific
Ocean, the PDO and NPGO are the two dominant climate modes and they are associated
with global signatures and distinct spatial patterns of sea level changes.
«A well - known feature of
global warming scenarios is the land — sea contrast,
with stronger warming
over land than
over oceans.
Researchers have found at least eight occurrences of iron penetrating the Pacific
Ocean,
with each occurrence likely associated
with global climate change
over thousands of years.
There has not been shown to be a density variation of significance that correlates
with average temperature variation (e.g, the recent high average temperature came from a small very hot area
over the
ocean and a small northern area, and more normal to even colder temperatures everywhere else, not
global temperatures being warmer), and Solar activity has been shown to correlate very well
with much of the long term (thousands of years time scale)
global temperature trend.
For the real earth,
with a significant heat capacity and significant atmospheric and
ocean transport, the one summary number that has meaning is the average of T ^ 4
over the surface of the earth... That is what is going to go into determination of the
global surface radiative balance.
Global warming plays a role by 1) elevating the SSTs in the Indian
Ocean and Indonesian region, where it contributes to the excessive moisture and rains that gave the flooding
over Pakistan, India and China; and 2) In Russia by adding to the heat and drying, making the drought more intense, longer lasting, and
with stronger and record breaking heat waves.
RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to
global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen methane.A huge increase in the release of methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the
ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in methane
over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential methane releases be vievwed
with any less trepidation?
Comparing the trend in
global temperature
over the past 100 - 150 years
with the change in «radiative forcing» (heating or cooling power) from carbon dioxide, aerosols and other sources, minus
ocean heat uptake, can now give a good estimate of climate sensitivity.
Tinkering
with the Earth and its atmosphere in an attempt to fend off
global warming — a.k.a. geoengineering — seems like the stuff of science fiction: Lacing the stratosphere
with sulfur aerosols or whitening clouds
over the
ocean to reflect sunlight back into space.
Over the past three decades, changes in [CO2] have increased global average temperatures (approx. 0.2 °C decade − 1 [2]-RRB-, with much of the additional energy absorbed by the world's oceans causing a 0.8 °C rise in sea surface temperature over the past cent
Over the past three decades, changes in [CO2] have increased
global average temperatures (approx. 0.2 °C decade − 1 [2]-RRB-,
with much of the additional energy absorbed by the world's
oceans causing a 0.8 °C rise in sea surface temperature
over the past cent
over the past century.
Further affirmation of the reality of the warming is its spatial distribution, which has largest values at locations remote from any local human influence,
with a
global pattern consistent
with that expected for response to
global climate forcings (larger in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere, larger at high latitudes than low latitudes, larger
over land than
over ocean).
Global average air temperatures have increased relatively slowly since a high point in 1998 caused by the
ocean phenomenon El Niño, but observations show that heat is continuing to be trapped in increasing amounts by greenhouse gases,
with over 90 % disappearing into the
oceans.
Coupled
with paleontological analyses of marine microfossils in deep - sea sediments, these stable - isotope and trace - element microanalyses provide quantitative measures of
global climate and
ocean behavior
over diverse time scales.