Total column water vapour has increased
over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3 % per decade from 1988 to 2004, consistent in pattern and amount with changes in SST and a fairly constant relative humidity.
Not exact matches
nice question — there was indeed a
global ocean in earths history and it was salt water — according to modern science when the plates moved and enclosed land creating a land locked
ocean which
over time turn to fresh water
by leaking the salt into the bedrock... or something like that — i have rough understanding.
Global ocean levels have risen
by 4 to 10 inches
over the past 100 years.
According to the new findings, Earth may be able to significantly reduce
global warming
by releasing some of the heat through a «vent» in the cloud cover
over the Pacific
Ocean.
In the last two years alone,
over 2.6 million square kilometers have been added to the portion of the
global ocean covered
by MPAs, bringing the total to
over 14.9 million square kilometers.
The observed and projected rates of increase in freshwater runoff could potentially disrupt
ocean circulation if
global temperatures rise
by 3 to 4 °C
over this century as forecast
by the IPCC 2001 report.
But as the
ocean gets warmer, some models predict the glacier could make the
global sea level rise
by two or three feet
over the next hundred years.
Since the CMIP5 models used
by the IPCC on average adequately reproduce observed
global warming in the last two and a half decades of the 20th century without any contribution from multidecadal
ocean variability, it follows that those models (whose mean TCR is slightly
over 1.8 °C) must be substantially too sensitive.
Unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases (at least
over the last few hundred thousand years) continue to accumulate in the atmosphere and the
global climate (land surface,
ocean, glaciers, stratosphere) continues to respond as predicted
by theory and models.
But the same paucity of ice, which Arctic climate specialists say is driven increasingly
by global greenhouse warming, has made it easy for an enormous bulk carrier, the MV Nordic Barents, to achieve a new feat of northern navigation — carrying more than 40,000 tons of concentrated iron ore from Kirkenes, Norway, along the Northern Sea Route
over Russia and, as of yesterday, out of the Arctic
Ocean on its way to a Chinese port.
Mercury levels in the upper layers of the
ocean are up 3.4 x since the beginning of the industrial revolution, according to the first study to have done truly
global measurements of marine mercury levels
by taking thousands of samples around the world
over half a decade.
In one projected event, large parts of the ice sheet melt and drain into the
ocean over the next millennia, raising
global sea levels
by several tens of meters.
Some of the very wet years are caused
by El Nino, a reversal of winds
over the Pacific
Ocean that has been going on every few years ever since there was a Pacific
Ocean... People... will cite computer models predicting that El Ninos should become stronger or more frequent with
global warming, but there are an awful lot of other models showing that they won't change or that they might even lessen in frequency.
Albedo from medium / low level clouds warms or cools the
ocean surface
by increasing or decreasing
over time across the
global surface.
Here the adjustment is determined
by (1) calculating the collocated ship - buoy SST difference
over the
global ocean from 1982 - 2012, (2) calculating the
global areal weighted average of ship - buoy SST difference, (3) applying a 12 - month running filter to the
global averaged ship - buoy SST difference, and (4) evaluating the mean difference and its STD of ship - buoy SSTs based on the data from 1990 to 2012 (the data are noisy before 1990 due to sparse buoy observations).
The results for change scaled
by global mean warming are rather similar across the four scenarios, an exception being a relatively large increase
over the equatorial
ocean for the commitment case.
The mechanism
by which the effect of oceanic variability
over time is transferred to the atmosphere involves evaporation, conduction, convection, clouds and rainfall the significance of which has to date been almost entirely ignored due to the absence of the necessary data especially as regards the effect of cloudiness changes on
global albedo and thus the amount of solar energy able to enter the
oceans.
Global warming is caused
by the Sun, especially its radiation
over the past century plus or minus a half century which is dominantly absorbed and stored in the
ocean because the
ocean is dark and because it has a high heat capacity (inertia in some Earth sciences).
The variation of net
global sensible and latent heat flux from the
ocean, being impacted greatly
by ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, plays the dominant role in the fluctuations in total energy output measured at the TOA
over short - term time frames.
By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variabilit
By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the
global mean surface temperature, the land -
ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature
over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained
by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variabilit
by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
The principal scientific objective is to make
global SSS measurements
over the ice - free
oceans with 150 - km spatial resolution, and to achieve a measurement error less than 0.2 (PSS - 78 [practical salinity scale of 1978]-RRB- on a 30 - day time scale, taking into account all sensors and geophysical random errors and biases.Salinity is indeed a key indicator of the strength of the hydrologic cycle because it tracks the differences created
by varying evaporation and precipitation, runoff, and ice processes.
Given that it is all eventually going to come back to the issue of the gradual gain we've been seeing in
ocean heat content
over many decades, the most accurate thing we can say is that 2014's warmth is very consistent with the general accumulation of energy in Earth's climate system caused
by increasing GH gases and is well accounted for dynamically in
global climate models.
Drought is expected to occur 20 - 40 percent more often in most of Australia
over the coming decades.6, 18 If our heat - trapping emissions continue to rise at high rates, 19 more severe droughts are projected for eastern Australia in the first half of this century.6, 17 And droughts may occur up to 40 percent more often in southeast Australia
by 2070.2 Unless we act now to curb
global warming emissions, most regions of the country are expected to suffer exceptionally low soil moisture at almost double the frequency that they do now.3 Studies suggest that climate change is helping to weaken the trade winds
over the Pacific
Ocean, with the potential to change rainfall patterns in the region, including Australia.20, 21,16,22
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed
by Willis et al. [2003], to produce
global estimates of upper
ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability
over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003...
While the warming of average
global surface temperatures has slowed (though not nearly as much as previously believed), the overall amount of heat accumulated
by the
global climate has not, with
over 90 percent being absorbed
by the
oceans.
During that same period, average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined
by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires
over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an
ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
ocean cycle called the «Indian
Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian
Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
Ocean, likely in response to
global warming.15, 16
C: increase in atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a:
ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected sea level rise
by 2100 in cm (all contributions)(NUM) B: climate change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need to be reduced drastically
by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century
global temperature record is reliable (D / A) H:
over the last 1000 years
global temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted
by scientist to support the idea of anthropogenic climate change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important for the science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)
Parts of North America and Europe may cool naturally
over the next decade, as shifting
ocean currents temporarily blunt the
global - warming effect caused
by mankind, Germany's Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences said.
Considering all the short - term factors identified
by the scientific community that acted to slow the rate of
global warming
over the past two decades (volcanoes,
ocean heat uptake, solar decreases, predominance of La Niñas, etc.) it is likely the temperature increase would have accelerated in comparison to the late 20th Century increases.
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases
over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C
global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased
by almost 50 %
over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the
oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
In 1990, British cloud physicist John Latham published a paper arguing he could cool
global climate
by brightening clouds
over the
ocean.
HOW MUCH OF THE RISE IN
GLOBAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE 20TH CENTURY COULD BE EXPLAINED
BY THE
GLOBAL OCEANS INTEGRATING ENSO?
published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little Ice Age and shows further increases
over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C
global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased
by almost 50 %
over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the
oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
In recent decades, much research on these topics has raised the questions of «tipping points» and «system flips,» where feedbacks in the system compound to rapidly cause massive reorganization of
global climate
over very short periods of time — a truncation or reorganization of the thermohaline circulation or of food web structures, for instance, caused
by the loss of sea ice or warming
ocean temperatures.
Within hours of the announcement
by scientists in the US that 2017 was at least the third warmest year recorded, if not the second,
over the Earth's land and
oceans, there comes a further revelation: 2017 was also the warmest year on record for the
global oceans.
By examining the spatial pattern of both types of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic
global warming signal was relatively spatially uniform
over the tropical
oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted of warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated —
by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing» of the «rate» of increase in average ambient
global land and
ocean surface air temperatures
over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean of the 90s is also meaningless in terms of the basic issue, and why the average ambient increase in
global air temperatures
over such a short term is
by far the least important empirical indicia of the issue.
On a
global scale, the
ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed
by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C per decade
over the period 1971 — 2010.
The IPCC tells us that
Over the period 1961 to 2003,
global ocean temperature has risen
by 0.1 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m.
«The combined average temperature
over global land and
ocean surfaces for July 2015 was the highest for July in the 136 - year period of record, at 0.81 °C (1.46 °F) above the 20th century average of 15.8 °C (60.4 °F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998
by 0.08 °C (0.14 °F).»
The paper
by Tamisiea et al. (2010) examines how the exchange of water between the atmosphere,
oceans, and continents can contribute to the water cycle, load the Earth and change its geoid, and cause the annual variations in relative sea level
over the
global ocean.
The response of atmospheric CO2 and climate to the reconstructed variability in solar irradiance and radiative forcing
by volcanoes
over the last millennium is examined
by applying a coupled physical — biogeochemical climate model that includes the Lund - Potsdam - Jena dynamic
global vegetation model (LPJ - DGVM) and a simplified analogue of a coupled atmosphere —
ocean general circulation model.
This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured
over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the
global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed
by a sharp temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and
ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
The idea is, if the change in surface temperature
over that period is affected
by changes in cloud cover, but changes of the surface temperature associated with the
ocean warming are small, then changes in cloud cover must be driving the present
global warming.
Measuring the
global temperature is only reliably done
by satellites, which circle the world 24/7 measuring the temperature
over large swathes of land and
ocean.
They're also highly confident that if the
global surface temperature increases
by more than 2 degrees Celsius
over present temperatures we could see «a nearly ice - free Arctic
Ocean in late summer.»
Although we focus on a hypothesized CR - cloud connection, we note that it is difficult to separate changes in the CR flux from accompanying variations in solar irradiance and the solar wind, for which numerous causal links to climate have also been proposed, including: the influence of UV spectral irradiance on stratospheric heating and dynamic stratosphere - troposphere links (Haigh 1996); UV irradiance and radiative damage to phytoplankton influencing the release of volatile precursor compounds which form sulphate aerosols
over ocean environments (Kniveton et al. 2003); an amplification of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations
by the addition of energy in cloud - free regions enhancing tropospheric circulation features (Meehl et al. 2008; Roy & Haigh 2010); numerous solar - related influences (including solar wind inputs) to the properties of the
global electric circuit (GEC) and associated microphysical cloud changes (Tinsley 2008).
For
global average sea level, the main control on water density
over these times is
ocean temperature, with warming causing thermal expansion
by roughly 0.4 m per degree C (Levermann et al., 2013).
Rise of the
global average sea level
over the time periods of most interest to human economies is controlled primarily
by the mass or density of
ocean water.
A Bureau of
Ocean Energy Management report shows ceasing new Arctic and Gulf of Mexico drilling could decrease
global CO2
by over 2 billion tonnes cumulatively.