Sentences with phrase «over the historical period in»

The recent paper by Kate Marvel and others (including me) in Nature Climate Change looks at the different forcings and their climate responses over the historical period in more detail than any previous modeling study.

Not exact matches

Their newest paper uses historical data from multiple countries to show that an increase in the ratio of household debt to gross domestic product over a three - to - four - year period predicts a decline in economic growth.

And while NerdWallet emphasizes that past market performance doesn't guarantee you'll earn the average historical return of 10 % in the future, the value of investing in stocks over a long period of time is still significant.

The rollercoaster ride in oil prices over the past three years may be old hat to investors familiar with the commodity's historical sensitivity to macro events (see chart below), but oil price volatility is by no means endemic and several factors are now lining up to suggest a calmer period for crude may lie ahead.

This rally has been so strong that many global indices have gone up in a straight line, registering gains up to 300 % over that time period with volatility hitting historical lows.

Finally, if we assume a sustained explosion in productivity growth to 2.8 % annually, joining the highest quintile of historical U.S. productivity growth rates for any 8 - year period, and assuming an unemployment rate of just 4 % in 2024, the result would still be real U.S. GDP growth averaging just 3.2 % annually over the next 8 years.

The scenario model is pre-populated with data based on a large sample of U.S. public companies (more than 2,500 companies) over a seven - year period (2004 - 2011), as compiled by BoardEx.1 To access the pre-populated model calculations, click the Calculations / Historical data and Attrition data tabs in the Excel spreadsheet that you can download from this page.

Since the inception of the Fund (as well, of course, in long - term historical tests), our present approach to risk management has both added to returns and reduced volatility - not necessarily in any short period, but over the complete market cycle.

In the charts below, you will be able to see the historical performance of the Fund over various periods.

If you look at historical market data, over two - thirds of the best 30 weeks, for example, have occurred in periods when market valuations were below their historical medians.

If one excludes the 1980 - 1997 period, the historical correlation between 10 - year Treasury yields and 10 - year prospective (and actual realized) equity returns is actually slightly negative over the past century, and is only weakly positive in post-war data.

In this book Bill Schultheis presents a simple investing plan built on establishing an investment portfolio of low cost index funds that, based on historical performance, will generate positive returns over a long time period (10 + years).

Indeed, in historical perspective the figures for membership and attendance could easily be used to argue that the so - called conservative churches have been growing less spectacularly over the past 20 years than in the period from 1920 to 1965.

The historical data [11] listed in Table 2 shows that, in the face of nationally falling abortions, down to 92 \ % in 2009 versus 2000 levels, Planned Parenthood succeeded in growing its abortions by 68 \ %, government funding by 79 \ % and contraception distribution by 38 \ % over roughly the same period.

The # 1m on paper profit for the financial year does not reflect that # 6.8 m was also spent on investment in the first team squad over the same time period, nor that historical liabilities totalling # 8.475 m had to be repaid.

When we look back at the historical data summarised in Figure 1 below, we find the period since the mid-1980s has been one in which successive governments have opted for small, year - to - year reductions in the growth of overall public spending, rather than greater reductions over a shorter period.

He points out that over that period Britain experienced a severe recession and a significant squeeze on living standards and yet industrial relations in Britain were generally good and the number of strikes were and still are low by historical standards.

Finally, Manning and colleagues pored over historical texts from Ptolemaic Egypt, comparing periods of unrest with the volcanic record in the ice cores.

Despite no historical changes in average annual precipitation between 1950 and 2015, there have been changes in average seasonal precipitation over the same period.

Digital analysis of nearly 9,000 paintings spanning 10 historical periods (over 800 years) depicts changes in artists» pallets and identifies signatures that correspond with the development of new painting techniques.

Discover the historical buildings and those men, women and children who worked in them over a 950 year period as you get to take a step back in time to learn more about what life was like in rural West Sussex.

The film is a rare case of a historical film not looking back on its source through the legacy it may have developed over time (usually peppered with winking irony), but is presented straight, immersed in the present of the period depicted where the prospect of Nixon resigning is all but preposterous.

The average printed book cover is only about 50 square inches, but in that space designers can evoke the whole range of emotions, allude to every historical period, and — subtly and not so subtly — entice us to pick up the book, flip it over, and get so interested that we just have to have it.

Historical Volatility: The speed or rate of change in an asset's price movement over a period of time.

It should be noted that although COFI generally follows trends in market rates, it can move in an opposite direction over the near term (one of these periods is marked on the historical graph above).

Since Schwab's fundamentally - indexed mutual funds have been in existence for over six years now, and that period spanned a significant market downturn, it is worthwhile to take a look at their historical risk - adjusted performance, as measured by the trailing five - year Sharpe Ratio (all data from Morningstar):

In the 2012 Vanguard study, «Dollar - cost averaging just means taking risk later,» the authors looked at historical monthly returns for $ 1 million invested as a lump sum and through dollar - cost averaging over periods as short as 6 months and as long as 36 months, assuming that funds were kept in cash before being investeIn the 2012 Vanguard study, «Dollar - cost averaging just means taking risk later,» the authors looked at historical monthly returns for $ 1 million invested as a lump sum and through dollar - cost averaging over periods as short as 6 months and as long as 36 months, assuming that funds were kept in cash before being investein cash before being invested.

Over this same period of time, prices for salt in the U.S. have increased at an historical average of 3 % per year.

One historical record of the impact of taxes on returns in Australia is the annual Russell Investments / Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) Long - term Investing Report, which measures pre - and post-tax returns for various asset classes over 20 - year periods.

In order to answer this question, I then performed exactly the same historical performance analyses to the ones described above, with the exception that instead of using the Vanguard Long - Term Treasury Fund for the fixed income portion of my portfolio, I employed the Vanguard Short - Term Federal Fund (ticker symbol: VSGBX), which exhibited a much more conservative increase in price over the 20 year period in questioIn order to answer this question, I then performed exactly the same historical performance analyses to the ones described above, with the exception that instead of using the Vanguard Long - Term Treasury Fund for the fixed income portion of my portfolio, I employed the Vanguard Short - Term Federal Fund (ticker symbol: VSGBX), which exhibited a much more conservative increase in price over the 20 year period in questioin price over the 20 year period in questioin question.

What is less appreciated is that it would have also indicated a fully unhedged position with - a few percent of assets in call options to provide leverage - in over 50 % of historical periods since 1940.

Believers in fundamental indices point out that repeated research by Kenneth French from Dartmouth's Tuck School and the University of Chicago's Eugene Fama has shown that small cap and value stocks have outperformed other securities over most significant historical periods, and haven't yet displayed a reversion to the mean.

The backtesting feature provides a hypothetical calculation of how a security or portfolio of securities would perform over a historical time period according to the criteria in the example trading strategy.

Take on the role of a warrior summoned by a shrine princess, and fight over various historical periods in order to defeat the dark monarch.

Over that time period she has had more than fifteen solo exhibitions at Farleigh Dickenson and Columbia University's Teacher's College, Mehu Gallery in Manhattan, the James E Lewis Museum at Morgan State University, the Barbados Museum and Historical Society and others.

Made over a period of six years, the series brackets a historical period that saw the much debated Culture Wars and the de-funding of the National Endowment of the Arts, the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, and perhaps most significantly the death of nearly 350,000 Americans to AIDS - related causes prior to the development of an effective combination of antiretroviral medications in 1996.

In 1980 the museum was entrusted with the care of a collection of historical artifacts acquired over a three - year period by the Junior League of Abilene.

Two things have changed in recent years — first, the temperature changes over the historical period are now more persistent, and so the trend in relation to the year - to - year variability has become more significant (this is still true even if you think there has been a «hiatus»).

Some people looked at parts of that work (for example, the lower right panel of Figure 1) and point out how the climate model oceans show a smooth and pretty much unbroken increase in heat content over the historical period.

In your case, the ice cores must be wrong, in my case, there is no problem with ice core CO2 (neither with historical CO2 levels over the oceans), as the 0.3 K temperature increase in the period 1900 - 1950 causes an increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed increase is due to human emissionIn your case, the ice cores must be wrong, in my case, there is no problem with ice core CO2 (neither with historical CO2 levels over the oceans), as the 0.3 K temperature increase in the period 1900 - 1950 causes an increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed increase is due to human emissionin my case, there is no problem with ice core CO2 (neither with historical CO2 levels over the oceans), as the 0.3 K temperature increase in the period 1900 - 1950 causes an increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed increase is due to human emissionin the period 1900 - 1950 causes an increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed increase is due to human emissions.

GOAL 1: Examine the historical evolution of the arctic ice - ocean system from 1948 to 2003 to understand the large - scale changes that have occurred in sea ice and the upper Arctic Ocean over this time period.

«It should be borne in mind that internal ocean oscillations substantially modulate the solar induced effects by inducing a similar atmospheric response but from the bottom up (and primarily from the equator) sometimes offsetting and sometimes compounding the top down (and primarily from the poles) solar effects but over multi-decadal periods of time the solar influence becomes clear enough in the historical records.

In summary, our results show that in the CESM - LE, the range of uncertainty in projected NAO trends and associated influences on SAT and P over the next 30 years can be obtained to a large degree from the Gaussian statistics of NAO variability during the historical period, with some regional exceptions possibly associated with AMOC variabilitIn summary, our results show that in the CESM - LE, the range of uncertainty in projected NAO trends and associated influences on SAT and P over the next 30 years can be obtained to a large degree from the Gaussian statistics of NAO variability during the historical period, with some regional exceptions possibly associated with AMOC variabilitin the CESM - LE, the range of uncertainty in projected NAO trends and associated influences on SAT and P over the next 30 years can be obtained to a large degree from the Gaussian statistics of NAO variability during the historical period, with some regional exceptions possibly associated with AMOC variabilitin projected NAO trends and associated influences on SAT and P over the next 30 years can be obtained to a large degree from the Gaussian statistics of NAO variability during the historical period, with some regional exceptions possibly associated with AMOC variability.

And, you can see by looking at slopes over other historical time periods during the last 40 years that the slopes can vary significantly over such time periods because, as I explained above, the slope is a very noisy metric in a system with noise except if you look over large enough time periods that the trend dominates the noise.

The prediction is initialised with the mean of the observed sea ice extent for September 2009 - 2013 and an ensemble prediction is created simply by adding all of the observed changes in the sea ice extent record from one September to the next over the historical period 1979 - 2013.

And of course, there is the Vostok data, which shows the historical warming and cooling behavior in a single location but over 100 year periods.

In the analysis of observed phenomena, the validity of a conjecture can be tested over «a longer period of time by using historical data, including (with cognizance of the limits of accuracy) proxy assessment methods.

As sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend in sea ice, there will be time periods with both rapid ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term changes in ice conditions.

an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.

It follows that the real effect of masking to HadCRUT4 coverage over the historical period is, in the southern extra-tropics, almost certainly the opposite of that simulated by CMIP5 models.