Businesses have no control
over the valuation multiple assigned to them.
Not exact matches
When you purchase a broad swath of equities, say an S&P 500 index fund, the returns you can expect
over the next decade or so comprise four building blocks: the starting dividend yield, projected growth in real earnings per share, expected inflation, and the expected change in «
valuation» — that is, the expansion or contraction in the price / earnings (P / E)
multiple.
Another example, Macy's, which is popular with value investors for a high dividend combined with a low
valuation multiples, also saw its worst single - day stock performance post earnings in
over a decade, falling 14 percent.
It doesn't matter whether one looks at basic measures such as median
valuation multiples over the past (bull market) decade, or whether one uses a more complex discounted cash flow model.
So while the
valuation multiples of the largest stocks have dropped by
over 50 %, the
valuation multiples of the smallest stocks have more than doubled.
It is clear that the bulk of the gains
over the past few years have come from higher
valuation multiples.
«They are often looking to capitalize on building a brand capable of commanding the high
valuation multiples that have dominated the industry
over the past few years.
Let's look at what happened to the change in the CAPE
valuation multiple and its contribution to total returns in the 1960s, which was an environment of low interest rates to start with which moved higher
over the decade.
The first is that rising
valuation multiples have been the nearly singular cause for higher prices
over the last few years.
That being said, even at today's historically attractive
valuation multiples, investors should likely only expect to earn a potential total annual return of about 5.9 % to 6.9 % (1.9 % yield plus 4 % to 5 % annual earnings growth)
over the next decade, far below the company's historical return rate and the returns offered by most other dividend aristocrats.
The Aquirer's
Multiple is a
valuation method that attempts to find attractively priced companies that may be considered for take
over.
[NB: Noting market
valuations (and M&A
multiples)
over the years, my rule of thumb is a 10 - 12.5 % operating margin deserves a 1.0 P / S, on average.
Given the company's diverse business lines, projected better environment for financials
over the next twelve months and low
valuations the market
multiple could easily improve to a conservative 12 times forward earnings.