Sentences with phrase «over warming of the climate system»

(1) there is established scientific concern over warming of the climate system based upon evidence from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level;

Not exact matches

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

New research published in Geophysical Research Letters by University of Melbourne scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global warming over the next decade.

A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

Using 19 climate models, a team of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor modeling of atmospheric convective systems — the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

Of course, this contrasts sharply with other forecasts of the climate system; the purple line roughly indicates the model - based forecast of Smith et al. (2007), suggesting with a warming of roughly 0.3 deg C over the 2005 - 2015 perioOf course, this contrasts sharply with other forecasts of the climate system; the purple line roughly indicates the model - based forecast of Smith et al. (2007), suggesting with a warming of roughly 0.3 deg C over the 2005 - 2015 perioof the climate system; the purple line roughly indicates the model - based forecast of Smith et al. (2007), suggesting with a warming of roughly 0.3 deg C over the 2005 - 2015 perioof Smith et al. (2007), suggesting with a warming of roughly 0.3 deg C over the 2005 - 2015 perioof roughly 0.3 deg C over the 2005 - 2015 period.

Such large variations of the climate likely won't occur every year over the next few decades given the limited global warming to date, but it would seem likely such conditions will occur more and more frequently as global warming continues, disrupting both social systems and ecosystems.

There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from changes in ocean circulation patterns that can make the global temperature increase or decrease, over and above the global warming due to CO2.

An interdisciplinary team of researchers say they have found «missing heat» in the climate system, casting doubt on suggestions that global warming has slowed or stopped over the past decade.

The conclusion that greenhouse warming dominates over solar warming is supported further by a detection and attribution analysis using 13 models from the MMD at PCMDI (Stone et al., 2007a) and an analysis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM1.4; Stone et al., 2007b).

But because of the inertia of the climate system, any warming will take place over many decades.

First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.

It is possible that Earth warms so much that it reaches what is called a «tipping point,» where the global climate system is seriously and permanently disrupted — like when a glass of water has been tipped over and the water can not realistically be put back into the glass.

We've only had 0.8 C warming since humanity started burning fossil fuels and we're already committed over the next 100 years to another 0.6 C warming with what's already in the atmosphere because of the huge time lags in the climate system.

``... warming of the climate system is unequivocal... most of the global average warming over the past 50 years is very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases increases...» — Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Dec. 10, 2007

J. T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem & B. Hamlington Scientific Reports 6, Article number: 31245 (2016) doi: 10.1038 / srep31245 Download Citation Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction Received: 13 April 2016 Accepted: 15 July 2016 Published online: 10 August 2016 Erratum: 10 November 2016 Updated online 10 November 2016 Abstract Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase oveClimate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction Received: 13 April 2016 Accepted: 15 July 2016 Published online: 10 August 2016 Erratum: 10 November 2016 Updated online 10 November 2016 Abstract Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase oveclimate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time.

Assuming a good bit of this was added after the natural warming cycle was started we are probably looking at closer to 1200 ppm over the next century or two before C02 levels begin to decrease again as this natural green house locks up carbon primarily in phytoplankton blooms caused by fertilization from the new large desert regions near the equator and excessive erosion from very intense storm systems the develop in such a hot house climate.

But the rate of global surface warming can fluctuate due to natural variations in the climate system over periods of a decade or so.»

and of course «If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability»

In recent decades, much research on these topics has raised the questions of «tipping points» and «system flips,» where feedbacks in the system compound to rapidly cause massive reorganization of global climate over very short periods of time — a truncation or reorganization of the thermohaline circulation or of food web structures, for instance, caused by the loss of sea ice or warming ocean temperatures.

In doing so we see that even though El Niños over the past 60 years or more remove a bit of energy each time, the longer term trend is net warming and expansion of this major reservoir of energy in the climate system.

This time period is too short to signify a change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34

Over the past 50 years, the oceans have absorbed about 90 % of the total heat added to the climate system while the rest goes to melting sea and land ice, and warming the land surface and atmosphere.

Since to me (and many scientists, although some wanted a lot more corroborative evidence, which they've also gotten) it makes absolutely no sense to presume that the earth would just go about its merry way and keep the climate nice and relatively stable for us (though this rare actual climate scientist pseudo skeptic seems to think it would, based upon some non scientific belief — see second half of this piece), when the earth changes climate easily as it is, climate is ultimately an expression of energy, it is stabilized (right now) by the oceans and ice sheets, and increasing the number of long term thermal radiation / heat energy absorbing and re radiating molecules to levels not seen on earth in several million years would add an enormous influx of energy to the lower atmosphere earth system, which would mildly warm the air and increasingly transfer energy to the earth over time, which in turn would start to alter those stabilizing systems (and which, with increasing ocean energy retention and accelerating polar ice sheet melting at both ends of the globe, is exactly what we've been seeing) and start to reinforce the same process until a new stases would be reached well after the atmospheric levels of ghg has stabilized.

The climate is a messy system and traditional attribution looking for the reasons for a warming of several tenths of a degree over a century can only reach the conclusion that it is «very likely», what chance, consequently, does anyone have to confidently attribute changes of a hundredth of a degree over a decade?

«TCR was originally defined as the warming at the time of CO2 doubling (i.e., after 70 years) in a 1 % yr — 1 increasing CO2 experiment (see Hegerl et al., 2007b), but like ECS, it can also be thought of as a generic property of the climate system that determines the global temperature response ΔT to any gradual increase in RF, ΔF, taking place over an approximately 70 - year time scale, normalized by the ratio of the forcing change to the forcing due to doubling CO2, F2 × CO2: TCR = F2 × CO2 ΔT / ΔF»

When the warming of the Earth's entire climate system is considered, global warming continues to rise at a rate equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations per second, faster over the past 15 years than the prior 15 years.

«When compared to the observed response of the climate system, the computer simulations all have forecast warming trends much steeper over the last several decades than measured.

If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability.

If the role of internal variability in the climate system is as large as this analysis would seem to suggest, warming over the 21st century may well be larger than that predicted by the current generation of models, given the propensity of those models to underestimate climate internal variability [Kravtsov and Spannagle, 2008].»

Using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model adapted to include a permafrost response module, the researchers calculated the contribution to climate warming of thawing permafrost over a range of varying paraClimate Model adapted to include a permafrost response module, the researchers calculated the contribution to climate warming of thawing permafrost over a range of varying paraclimate warming of thawing permafrost over a range of varying parameters.

This year's late winter heat wave over much of the United States, dubbed «March Madness,» has been cited as evidence that human - induced global warming is causing the climate system to stray far outside its normal range of variability.

«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»

Scientists at IITM's Centre for Climate Change and Research R K Madhura, R Krishnan, Jayashree Revadekar, M Mujumdar and B N Goswami published their paper, «Changes in western disturbances over western Himalayas in a warming environment» which talks of the increasing frequency of WDs — a low pressure system originating over the eastern Mediterranean sea and moves eastward.

The basic physics knowledge of the greenhouse effect have been examined since 1824 beginning with Joseph Fourier, the hypothesis that we should warm with continued CO2 emissions has been around for more than a hundred years, the general confirmations and realization that this will develop into a global problem have been germinating for over 50 years, and in the last three decades the knowledge that the warming we will experience will affect our climate and agricultural systems is well known.

Using datasets of actual temperatures recorded by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA GISS), the United Kingdom's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the University of East Anglia (Hadley - CRU), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), satellites measuring atmospheric and deep oceanic temperatures, and a remote sensor system in California, Christy found that «all show a lack of warming over the past 17 years.»

The predominant summary statements from the TAR WGI strengthened the SAR's attribution statement: «An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system», and «There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.»

The 5AR's «Summary for Policymakers,» released last week, acknowledged that «the rate of warming over the past 15 years... is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951,» before concluding that «warming of the climate system is unequivocal.»

The non-linearities are emergent properties of the complex interconnectivity of the many parts of the earth climate system — The presence and amplitude of El Nino changes the rainfall in the southeastern US, which affects evapotranspiration and cloudiness over the warm parts of the Atlantic, which affects the amount of sensible and latent heat which goes into the atmosphere, which the prevailing winds carry to Great Britain, and so on through a chain of events which eventually influence the barometric pressure differences between the Eastern and Western Pacific which drive the ENSO.

They will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere over the next years and possibly even decades, which together with the inertia of the climate system will support further warming.