Not exact matches
Overall, based on 13 yr of data, a relatively contrasting pattern in
trends appears to have emerged in the tropics / subtropics largely modulated by dust
emissions and transport processes encompassing the Saharan arid lands and the Arabian Peninsula and their downwind oceanic regions, with downward and upward tendencies, respectively.
The energy
trends envisioned in the New Policies Scenario imply that national commitments to reduce greenhouse - gas
emissions, while expected to have some impact, are collectively inadequate to meet the Copenhagen Accord's
overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2 °C.
Now, new research in Nature Climate Change [1] not only reinforces the reality of this
trend — which is already provoking debate about the
overall climate consequences of a warming Arctic — but statistically attributes it to human causes, which largely means greenhouse gas
emissions (albeit with a mix of other elements as well)
The
overall trend looks more like an oscillation, non-linear (just like the Arctic air temperature), and without any clear connection to anthropogenic CO2
emissions:
The numerous mitigation measures that have been undertaken by many Parties to the UNFCCC and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in February 2005 (all of which are steps towards the implementation of Article 2) are inadequate for reversing
overall GHG
emission trends.
In other words, if it continues, the recent
trend in sea ice loss may triple
overall Arctic warming, causing large
emissions in carbon dioxide and methane from the tundra this century (for a review of recent literature on the tundra, see «Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting; NSF issues world a wake - up call: «Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming»).
For short time variations (1 month to years), the incluence is about 3 ppmv / °C, mainly caused by upper ocean absorption / desorption, superposed over the
overall CO2
trend caused by human
emissions.
This «
overall warming
trend» started long before there were any human CO2
emissions to speak of (as we have been emerging from the Little Ice Age) and has continued through the most recent warming.
Electricity generation
emission reductions are clearly the driver of the
overall downward
trend in CO2
emissions in the U.S. since 2005, as natural gas» share of the U.S. electricity generation fuel mix has grown from 21 percent to 34 percent during that timespan.