Not exact matches
Most scientists expect the increase in the
number of strong
hurricanes as the climate warms to be at the expense of smaller ones, meaning fewer
overall.
Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100 - year trend leading to related increases of over 0.78 C in SST and over 100 % in tropical cyclone and
hurricane numbers.
It is concluded that the
overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and
hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming.
At the end of their comment # 27 the authors state «Turning to very important question of the frequency of the strongest storms, it is entirely possible that a large increase in category 4 - 5 storms will result from increasing greenhouse gases, despite an
overall reduction in
hurricane numbers.
Although the
overall number of storms in the region are expected to drop, the
number of strong ones — those reaching Category 4 or 5 in the
hurricane index — are expected to double from the
number produced now, the study says.
But the
overall number of
hurricanes in many regions was likely to «either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.»
As noted above, there is some indication from high resolution models of substantial increases in the
numbers of the most intense
hurricanes even if the
overall number of tropical storms or
hurricanes decreases.
The model also supports the notion of a substantial decrease (~ 25 %) in the
overall number of Atlantic
hurricanes and tropical storms with projected 21st century climate warming.