In a series of Atlantic basin - specific dynamical downscaling studies (Bender et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013), we attempted to address both of these limitations by letting the Atlantic basin regional model of Knutson et al. (2008) provide
the overall storm frequency information, and then downscaling each individual storm from the regional model study into the GFDL hurricane prediction system.
(
Overall storm frequency was unchanged.)
Not exact matches
Also, unlike the bulk of climate models to date, the increase in odds of extreme
storms found in the study stems both from a shift toward more intense hurricanes as well as an
overall increase in hurricane
frequency.
As the climate changes, tropical cyclones are expected to produce more rain and the
frequency of the highest intensity
storms is projected to increase even though the
overall number of
storms may remain unchanged or perhaps even decrease.
At the end of their comment # 27 the authors state «Turning to very important question of the
frequency of the strongest
storms, it is entirely possible that a large increase in category 4 - 5
storms will result from increasing greenhouse gases, despite an
overall reduction in hurricane numbers.
I find the entire concept of attempting to partially attribute cyclone power or
frequency of specific
storms to climate change wanting, in light of the fact that the
overall numbers do not appear to demonstrate any trend.
But focusing the debate within societies on
overall frequency or intensity or degrees of this or that in this or that geographical basin as a way to evaluate the relationship between climate change and tropical
storms is confusing the issue.
Mid-latitude
storms have decreased in
frequency (e.g., in the United States
overall) while high - latitude
storm activity has increased (e.g., in Canada).4 It is likely that human influence contributed to these changes.5
-- «Other trends in severe
storms, including the intensity &
frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain» — «lack of any clear trend in landfall
frequency along the U.S. eastern and Gulf coasts» — «when averaging over the entire contiguous U.S., there is no
overall trend in flood magnitudes»
When we consider this effect in combination with the likely increase in
storm frequency due to El Niño, it's clear the potential exists for a very active winter
overall.
Whether warming worsens
storms [still very difficult to determine whether global warming will increase the
overall frequency of intense
storms (partly because these are difficult to resolve in current - generation climate models), but clear evidence has emerged of the increase in most intense category 4 - 5 hurricanes / cyclones / typhoons]