Not exact matches
Whether or not the IPO market picks up speed, and when, will depend on the
overall performance
of the
stock market, the performance
of other companies that have recently gone public, and the willingness
of those companies waiting in the wings to take significant haircuts on their
valuations.
In any event, I'm pleased with the
overall behavior
of our
stock holdings, and I expect that we'll have plenty
of opportunity to increase our exposure to market fluctuations at more appropriate
valuations.
Given the absence
of a public trading market
of our common
stock, and in accordance with the American Institute
of Certified Public Accountants Accounting and
Valuation Guide,
Valuation of Privately - Held Company Equity Securities Issued as Compensation, our board
of directors exercised reasonable judgment and considered numerous and subjective factors to determine the best estimate
of fair value
of our common
stock, including independent third - party
valuations of our common
stock; the prices at which we sold shares
of our convertible preferred
stock to outside investors in arms - length transactions; the rights, preferences, and privileges
of our convertible preferred
stock relative to those
of our common
stock; our operating results, financial position, and capital resources; current business conditions and projections; the lack
of marketability
of our common
stock; the hiring
of key personnel and the experience
of our management; the introduction
of new products; our stage
of development and material risks related to our business; the fact that the option grants involve illiquid securities in a private company; the likelihood
of achieving a liquidity event, such as an initial public offering or a sale
of our company given the prevailing market conditions and the nature and history
of our business; industry trends and competitive environment; trends in consumer spending, including consumer confidence; and
overall economic indicators, including gross domestic product, employment, inflation and interest rates, and the general economic outlook.
The odds strongly favor a decrease in
overall stock valuations in the intermediate - term (
of 5 to 20 years or approximately 10 years).
In that sense all analysis
of stock market based on historical metrics do nt make much sense since composition
of stocks is entirely different in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks
stocks likely to command higher
valuations and suddenly lower
valuations during short period
of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence
of technology on
overall cost structure
of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many
of employees cost etc)
valuation matrix
of most companies likely to get affected dynamically in short duration
of time than in the past.
Are the current large market leaders enjoying higher
stock prices simply because
of their position as larger weights in the
overall market funds (into which vast sums
of money are pouring every month), rather than because they are good profitable companies with fair
valuations?
In this part 2, I will present the final 10
of 20 attractively - valued dividend growth
stocks that I felt were currently worthy
of consideration based on attractive or fair
valuation relative to the
overall market.
An example is the Tech bubble
of 1999 - 2000, when
overall valuations were very high, but there existed many opportunities in «old - world» industries that didn't get caught up in the speculative craze that affected technology, telecommunications and media
stocks.
To the extent that
valuations predict the
overall return
of the
stock market, they tell us everything about the first component and quite a bit about Safe Withdrawal Rates in general.
But with the levels
of dividends, profit growth and
valuation expected over the next five years it would suggest to me a 5 % to 7 % return from the
overall stock market.
The Fund may emphasize a «value» style
of investing that emphasizes undervalued companies with characteristics for improved
valuations, which may never improve and may actually have lower returns than other styles
of investing or the
overall stock market.
This style
of investing is subject to the risk that the
valuations never improve or that the returns on «value» equity securities are less than returns on other styles
of investing or the
overall stock market.