«So he is wrong about inflation, but he is right to worry about
overvalued asset markets.»
Not exact matches
With
market volatility hitting multi-decade lows, junk bond yields also at record lows, the median price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously
overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket» in the prices of risky
assets that could attend even a modest upward shift in risk premiums.
Finding relative bargains in the stock
market used to be a real challenge in months past as nearly every stock and
asset class was deemed
overvalued by historical measures.
That stocks appear
overvalued could be a driver of gold's performance right now, with savvy investors, anticipating a possible
market correction, loading up on
assets that have historically held their value in times of economic crisis.
In our view, the current
market environment begs for investors to honestly assess their tolerance for loss, to align the duration of their investment portfolio with the horizon over which they expect to spend their
assets; to consider their tolerance for missing returns should even this obscenely
overvalued market continue to advance for a while; to understand historical precedents; to consider whether they care about such precedents; and to decide the extent to which they truly believe this time is different.
First, when there is a shock to
markets, the most vulnerable
assets are the ones that are in a bubble, and we have been saying for quite some time that US Treasuries appear to be
overvalued.
The prevailing
overvalued, overbought, and overbullish combination of conditions has historically been associated with subsequent
market returns below Treasury bill yields, so while we hold about 1 % of
assets in call options as a modest speculative exposure to
market fluctuations, a larger exposure closer to 2 % continues to await a short - term pullback sufficient to «clear» that overbought condition.
When the stock
market is near a record high, interest rates are headed much higher and the
market fear index, the VIX, suddenly shoots up, this is a clear sign of an
overvalued market for conventional intangible
assets.
To avoid losing money in the
markets, don't follow the crowd and don't buy into
overvalued assets.
Who in their right mind would lend $ 2.5 billion for a century to an emerging
markets company that in April wrote off $ 17 billion in
overvalued assets and billions more in bribes?
This drives prices up substantially over a short period of time and leads to the
asset being
overvalued until the
market corrects.
In our view, the current
market environment begs for investors to honestly assess their tolerance for loss, to align the duration of their investment portfolio with the horizon over which they expect to spend their
assets; to consider their tolerance for missing returns should even this obscenely
overvalued market continue to advance for a while; to understand historical precedents; to consider whether they care about such precedents; and to decide the extent to which they truly believe this time is different.
In this brilliant presentation, Graham explores how an investor should go about determining whether the
market is
overvalued, how to tell what
asset allocation is right for you, and how to pick stocks wisely.
Low P / B stocks tend to be securities where the
market thinks the
assets are
overvalued at historic cost, or there is some risk due to the size of the liabilities.
I think that the
market is maybe slightly
overvalued relative to earnings and
assets, but this doesn't mean that there aren't opportunities to buy cheap stocks.
While much investor concern has been voiced about the overall levels of the stock
market, we think the most important risk that investors face today is making sure that they do not buy into
overvalued, «safe»
assets.
«We use the difference between prices and net
asset values of closed - end mutual funds at the end of the 1920s to estimate the degree to which the stock
market was
overvalued on the eve of the 1929 crash.
There are at least three ways of doing that: making bets that the
market or particular sectors or securities will fall (long / short equity), shifting
assets from
overvalued asset classes to undervalued ones (flexible portfolios) or selling stocks as they become
overvalued and holding the proceeds in cash until stocks become undervalued again (absolute value investing).