Lu's predictions for increased polar
ozone loss in 2008/2009 as a function of the low solar activity (and therefore higher CR flux) did not come to pass.
This week, it's a paper on bromine - and iodine - mediated
ozone loss in marine boundary layer environments (see a good commentary here).
There were measurements in 1958 that found large
ozone loss in the Antarctic, but these measurement have been found to be false, due to instrument error.
In a simple model calculation, the observed halogen concentrations induced just about the extra 50 %
ozone loss in the region.
So
ozone loss in the troposphere is a good thing, really.
Ozone loss in the stratosphere and the consequent increase in penetration of UV into the upper troposphere tends to reduce the differential between the atmospheric pressure in the stationary high pressure cell East of Chile and the low over Indonesia tending to move the atmosphere towards a constant El Nino orientation.
Record - breaking
ozone loss in the Arctic winter 2010/2011: comparison with 1996/1997 — Kuttippurath et al. (2012) http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/7073/2012/acp-12-7073-2012.pdf
The combination of these two cooling effects causes dramatically increased ozone depletion so that
ozone loss in the Arctic by the year 2020 is roughly double what it would be without greenhouse gas increases.
It's no surprise the science article titled, «Unprecedented Arctic
ozone loss in 2011» appeared in Nature, on October 2, 2011.
Cold conditions and
ozone loss in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere (e.g., between potential temperatures of 360 to 400 K) were particularly unusual compared to previous years.
The recipe for massive springtime
ozone loss in the polar regions, such as the annual ozone hole seen over Antarctica during the past two decades, is fairly simple.
But total ozone maps are not able to support any statement about chemical
ozone loss in the Arctic.
«Until we did our recent work no - one realized that the Calbuco eruption in Chile, actually had significantly affected
the ozone loss in October of last year,» Solomon said.
So far the degree of Arctic
ozone loss in winter 2004/2005 is very similar to the previous record loss in the Arctic, that occurred during winter 1999/2000.
In 2016, their analyses suggest, about 3 % of the summer
ozone loss in the Antarctic could be traced to CH2Cl2.
Increasing greenhouse gases may therefore be at least partly responsible for the very large Arctic
ozone losses in recent winters, and the situation may worsen in the future.
«Accordingly, it is impossible to predict the potential severity of
ozone losses in a future climate.»
Not exact matches
He doesn't believe
in natural
loss of fossil fuels,
ozone... yet he is worried about limited cash flow.
In 1984, the US National Research Council reported that rates of
ozone loss were less than anticipated — fractions of 1 per cent.
Colder temperatures and weaker high - altitude winds may make the arctic polar vortex even more intense
in future winters and trigger greater
ozone loss, says atmospheric scientist Paul Newman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
in Greenbelt, Maryland, although the
losses probably won't approach those
in Antarctica.
It is possible to do a small - scale test, with quite low risks, that measures key aspects of the risk of geoengineering —
in this case the risk of
ozone loss.»
That falls short of Antarctica's total
loss at some altitudes, but it's one of the worst
ozone wipeouts ever seen
in the Arctic.
Atmospheric scientists are analyzing data from weather balloons and satellites for clues to how the
ozone will fare when sunlight — a third factor
in ozone loss — returns to the Arctic.
At present, naturally - emitted VSLS account for around 90 % of the total
ozone loss caused by VSLS
in the lower stratosphere.
That is why, over Antarctica,
ozone loss doesn't get going
in earnest until September, the beginning of the southern spring, when light returns to the pole.
They identified 10 environmental limits we might not want to transgress
in the Anthropocene: aerosol pollution; biodiversity
loss; chemical pollution; climate change; freshwater use; changes
in land use (forests to fields, for example); nitrogen and phosphorus cycles; ocean acidity; and the
ozone hole.
Earth System Threshold Measure Boundary Current Level Preindustrial Climate Change CO2 Concentration 350 ppm 387 ppm 280 ppm Biodiversity
Loss Extinction Rate 10 pm > 100 pm * 0.1 - one pm Nitrogen Cycle N2 Tonnage 35 mmt ** 121 mmt 0 Phosphorous Cycle Level
in Ocean 11 mmt 8.5 - 9.5 mmt — 1 mmt
Ozone Layer O3 Concentration 276 DU # 283 DU 290 DU Ocean Acidification Aragonite ^ ^ Levels 2.75 2.90 3.44 Freshwater Usage Consumption 4,000 km3 ^ 2,600 km3 415 km3 Land Use Change Cropland Conversion 15 km3 11.7 km3 Low Aerosols Soot Concentration TBD TBD TBD Chemical Pollution TBD TBD TBD TBD * pm = per million ** mmt = millions of metric tons #DU = dobson unit ^ km3 = cubic kilometers ^ ^ Aragonite is a form of calcium carbonate.
Conditions are ripe for
losses to surpass a record Arctic
ozone hole observed
in the spring of 2011, he adds.
Through extensive modeling of stratospheric chemistry, the team found that calcite, a constituent of limestone, could counter
ozone loss by neutralizing emissions - borne acids
in the atmosphere, while also reflecting light and cooling the planet.
They point out that the 50 per cent
loss of
ozone at low altitudes
in the stratosphere is equivalent to a 15 per cent
loss of total
ozone (Nature, vol 259, p 283).
They fear that similar aerosol already
in the northern stratosphere, which came from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo
in the Philippines
in June 1991, may cause a dramatic
loss of
ozone in the northern hemisphere next February or March.
Ozone treatment caused no changes
in the PLGA and no
loss of function, with cells still able to grow on the polymer scaffold, as they would
in treatments.
Data from observations
in Japan itself show that the greatest
loss of
ozone — 4.5 per cent over the past 10 years — occurred over the city of Sapporo, which lies on the same latitude as Marseilles.
The figure for the column between 12 and 20 kilometres altitude was a record low of 18 Dobson units, representing a
loss of 83 per cent of the
ozone in that layer.
They also report that there was a 50 per cent
loss of the
ozone above southern Argentina and southern Chile for a few days
in early October.
Rumen Bojkov, of the UN's World Meteorological Organization, says this might explain the large
losses of
ozone observed at lower altitudes
in the stratosphere.
Balloon flights from McMurdo Station, which lies at 78 degrees South, revealed severe
ozone depletion
in October 1991 at altitudes between 12 and 20 kilometres, with a 93 per cent
loss of
ozone between 17 and 18 kilometres (Geophysical Research Letters, vol 19, p 1105).
This
ozone will help to compensate for any
losses in stratospheric
ozone, but at the cost of causing global warming.
In addition, the larger than expected
loss of UV light meant less stratospheric
ozone up to 45 kilometers above the surface, but more above that line.
Clearly Antarctica is supposed to warm
in the future as greenhouse levels increase (and
ozone loss decreases), but it is unclear just how it should be behaving to date.
The study, led by Simone Tilmes of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
in Boulder, Colo., warns that such an approach would delay the recovery of the Antarctic
ozone hole by decades and cause significant
ozone loss over the Arctic.»
result
in large
ozone losses.
The increasing depleation of
ozone over the Pole regions, Real Climate (6 May 2005) Record Artic Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and increased snow falls in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005) in Brief, p
ozone over the Pole regions, Real Climate (6 May 2005) Record Artic
Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and increased snow falls in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005) in Brief, p
Ozone Loss, has at least coincided with decreased temperatures, comment 5, and increased snow falls
in the Antartic continents interior, New Scientist (28 May 2005)
in Brief, p. 17.
Although the vortex broke down around mid-March of that winter,
ozone loss continued
in a stable remnant and by early April about 70 % of the
ozone at 20 km was destroyed
in this fragment of the vortex.
I would be very hesitant
in attributing mass extinctions to
ozone losses.
No specific mention of the «volume cold enough for
ozone loss» trend line is made
in the Nature text, although it is stated that «Certain clouds
in the stratosphere provide surfaces on which CFC decay products are converted into forms that destroy
ozone â??
The study about the research was published
in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences under the title «Stratospheric solar geoengineering without
ozone loss.»
So the maximum
loss occurrs
in the heart of the
ozone layer.
But again this does not prevent further
ozone loss, because stable remnants of the polar vortex often survive the breakdown for weeks and
ozone loss can continue
in these remnants.
Now that we're
in March, sufficient sunlight is available to cause sizeable
ozone losses.