Sentences with phrase «paleo reconstructions»

I agree with you but the point you are raising here is surely how to deal with the expression of uncertainty, especially with paleo reconstructions.

The peninsula station smearing is the same effect that occurs when the heavily oversampled bristlecones are included in Mann's paleo reconstructions.

This is really pretty elementary compared to the paleo reconstructions.

A focus of paleo reconstructions for the past 2000 years should be detecting multidecadal variability, rather than trying to convince that the recent decade is the warmest decade, etc..

The use of RegEM in S09 is a bit different than the use in the paleo reconstructions.

Paleo reconstructions of the northern hemisphere have a lot more regional oscillations that tend to cancel.

Paleo reconstructions as a whole should be treated with caution when it relates to precise representations of temperature.

Everyone needs to remember paleo reconstructions of climate are about the handle, not the blade.

If indeed a discussion on the paleo reconstructions is your intention.

It is not wise, in my opinion, to begin a discussion on the valuable information given to us to by paleo reconstructions with an accusation of dishonesty on the part of the scientists involved.

Do you think that ALL the paleo reconstructions that show hockey sticks are flawed?

You can not seriously believe that a fruitful discussion on the paleo reconstructions can result from calling scientists» honesty into question.

Probably another pipe dream in reality but I really do think its a good idea to lose the paleo reconstructions at least for the time being.

There have been a number of different regional paleo reconstructions and hundreds of local reconstructions.

Choice 3, looking at the longer potential oscillations looks pretty sexy, especially when you start with the southern ocean paleo reconstructions.

If they would have came out and just said, we have a divergence problem, looks like this may foul up our paleo reconstructions because the same thing may have happened in the past, nearly everyone here would have understood.

It's not just the paleo reconstructions that Gavin seems to have given up on.

In my comments to AR4, I suggested that, if the paleo reconstructions don't «matter», the topic should be removed from AR4 with a short notice to Policy = makers that since AR3, it had been decided that the topic didn't matter after all.

I agree, but ask what is sacrosanct about 1950 to current temperatures that are melded with prior paleo reconstructions?

If he wants to keep any credibility at all, he really needs to address the clear evidence that Tingley provides showing that the LASSO method leads to severe overfitting in the context of paleo reconstructions.

Looking further back, the paleo reconstructions also do not replicate the considerable drop to the depths of the LIA around 1690, the (reconstructed) warmth around 1630, the period of well documented cold at the beginning of the 17th century and the sharp (reconstructed) rise around 1540 to something apparently approaching the temperatures at the end of the 20th century.

The coarser 50 year time scale noted in figure 4 appears to have completely masked the decadal variability of up to 2C through the record which is up to ten times larger than the paleo reconstructions using proxies.

I believe that the Earth's climate has moved through the last 50 million years within remarkably stable bounds and that Alex's hypothesis is a good match with current observations and even back many hundreds of thousand years from paleo reconstructions.

real world variability is much greater than is noted by the paleo reconstructions as they use too coarse a sieve

Note: the paleo reconstructions in the earlier part of the record that coincide with CET «paleo appear to run a little cool.

Comparison of the paleo reconstructions and CET instrumental data shows that the paleo reconstructions miss the great warming centred on 1730 the recovery around 1830 from the coldest decade (1810) since the depths of the LIA in 1690, and the final bursts of the LIA in 1840 and 1890.

Curiously, this variability can not be seen at all in the core paleo reconstructions (figure 2) which appear surprisingly stable, with no greater variance than around 0.2 to 0.4 C.degrees throughout the period 1500 to 1920 (by which time the instrumental record is utilised).

That the paleo reconstructions somewhat accurately capture long term variability makes this feature useful.

The very limited deviation from the considerable climate stability illustrated throughout the paleo reconstructions - including the Mann et al 1998 «hockey stick» - is difficult to corroborate with actual instrumental or historic evidence.

Trouble is these paleo reconstructions appear to be incorrect.

Specifically the paleo reconstructions exaggerate the NH summer trend which is cooling, but new winter data shows winters were warming to lead to overall warming.

This makes the use of paleo reconstructions as the basis for far reaching policy changes somewhat problematic and counter intuitive as it is based on a belief that the past comprised of a relatively unchanging climate.

While at AGU I saw some interesting papers on using downscaled GCMS for doing regional paleo reconstructions.

Paleo reconstructions tend to suppress variation, so past temperature change is likely underestimated by 0.1 to 0.5 C.

A number of less controversial paleo reconstructions indicate much longer term pseudo-periodic «cycles» with many indicating a pesky Bond event occurring every 1000 years or so.

In this case we know something about the distribution, based on the paleo reconstructions.

However, even if Mann were shown to be engaging in scientific fraud, this would not necessarily invalidate the existing paleo reconstructions, and would certainly not invalidate AGW.

If he shifted his synthetic spikes in time, He would find points that would have more and less attenuation as they synchronized or de-synchronized with the major paleo reconstructions.

miker, Quality of paleo reconstructions is a major issue, remember Mann et al?

The paper must be wrong because you can't use the modern instrumental record to compare with paleo reconstructions.

Which brings me back to my issue with Global versus regional paleo reconstructions.

Over the last 24 hours or so I've been asking you questions about sensitivity and paleo reconstructions.

All paleo reconstructions are flawed to varying degrees.

I have used the Indo - Pacific Warm Pool paleo reconstructions along with Law Dome CO2 to extend the reference sensitivities.

It is clear that because of the way paleo information is measured (and we can ask why such things as tree rings should be considered reliable thermometers) that real world annual and decadal weather completely passes paleo reconstructions by.

It shows the Hockey stick paleo reconstructions - smoothed 50 year records - and decadal CET instrumental (and reconstruction) The blue lines closed at the top represent glacial retreats and closed at the bottom glacial advances.

Another example is the «CO2 control knob» posit of Richard B. Alley, which is based on carefully selected paleo reconstructions.

f) you've got to love how he smoothly changes from obsrvations to syntheses when talking about paleo reconstructions in the tropics.

Since paleo reconstructions are highly dependent on ocean currents, without a proper model of the ocean currents, «averaging» Paleo reconstructions can lead to false conclusions.

To me, though, it doesn't seem to have happened enough, on paleo reconstructions or other topics.