There are good reasons for doing so in the cited articles, specifically the much better historical and
paleo records for the NH.
Not exact matches
Moreover, random interactions within the sun's magnetic field can flip the fluctuations from one cycle length to the other, matching the
paleo - temperature
record for ice ages on Earth
for over the past 5.3 million years, when ice ages occurred occurred roughly every 41,000 years until about a million years ago when they switched to a roughly 100,000 - year cycle.
It's surely no coincidence that gut - healing diets, such as
Paleo or GAPS, involve cutting right back on sugar and other carbohydrates, and they have a strong track
record of being effective
for many people.
What evidence is there
for the assumption that climate sensitivity based on
paleo record is applicable to present day?
My understanding of the
paleo - climate
record implied (to me) that the wide spread of results from (
for instance, the first reports from the climateprediction.net experiment) were a function of their methodology but not a possible feature of the real world.
Since the volume of ice at risk under BAU is within a factor of two of the volume of ice at risk during a deglaciation under orbital forcing, while the forcing is much more rapidly applied under BAU, looking at sea level rise rates in the
paleo -
record might actually be considered a search
for lower limits on what to expect if reticence did not run so strongly in our approach.
Over even longer time scales (hundreds of years) there are a number of
paleo -
records that correlate with
records of cosmogenic isotopes (particularly 10Be and 14C), however, these
records are somewhat modulated by climate processes themselves (the carbon cycle in the case of 14C, aerosol deposition and transport processes
for 10Be) and so don't offer an absolutely clean attribution.
The geologic legacy of Hurricane Irene: Implications
for the fidelity of the
paleo - storm
record Scott Hippensteel et al., Dept. of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223, USA;
[email protected].
Neither the
paleo record nor current work looking
for this feedback support this in any way.
As noted above however as the earth's temperature does not widely oscillate when there are large temporary forcing changes, the explanation
for cyclic abrupt climate change in the
paleo record is not that the planet amplifies the forcing.
The NOAA Paleoclimatology Reconstructions Network has made available
paleo data
for download including 92 high - resolution temperature
records over the past 2 + millennia.
But, again, the CET
record (even as extended by Tony) is the only real continuous regional temperature
record we have prior to the mid-19th century so, ignoring
paleo data (which are arguably less representative than the CET) it's the best «proxy» we have
for a global temperature prior to ~ 1850.
The dramatic variations in temperature seen in the instrumental
record seem a more likely explanation
for glacial changes than a
paleo temp
record that is basically static.
After these threats are identified
for each resource, then the relative risk from natural - and human - caused climate change (estimated from the global climate model projections, but also the historical,
paleo -
record and worst case sequences of events) can be compared with other risks in order to adopt the optimal mitigation / adaptation strategy.
There is LOTS of evidence
for a global MWP (studies from all over the globe using different
paleo methodologies, composite studies from several sites, historical
records from all over the civilized world at the time, actual physical evidence, etc..)
These real - world events can be constructed not only from the historical
record, but,
for example, from the
paleo -
record and by sequencing different historical time periods together (e.g, the driest 10 years in the historical
record, etc).
Apparently according to McKay et al 1991 concentrations as low as 250ppm
for extended periods of time (as depicted in the ice - core) would have led to the extinction of certain C4 plant species and this has not been
recorded by
paleo - botanists.
So
for global
paleo record we should switch to Loehle 2007, and
for longer time span the Greenland drill
record is not bad as well.
Facts, being pesky things, have shown that nothing can account
for the change in our climate — from
paleo records, to ice
records, to dendro
records, and to heliological studies — and the only thing left, as Sherlock would say, however improbable, is the answer.
Searching
for past regional extreme events through the historical and
paleo records should be the focus, rather than working to air brush the past global variability.
More substantial changes would be along the lines of «Exploring potential impacts of a 2C world using insights from
paleo climate
records, modern observations and climate modelling» or «Exploring the potential
for tipping points in the climate system before 2C».
For example, we know that if the climate wasn't changing, it would be broken, since the evidence tells us that the climate is in a state of continuous change, moreover; nothing about contemporary change is unusual compared to the
paleo record, and this is even true when we compare changes in recent 5 year averages to the changes in multi-century averages
recorded in ice cores.
Early TRL projects focused on establishing long tree - ring
records from temperature - sensitive boreal forest locations in North American
for studies of global change, using dendrochronologically dated wood, to investigate the value of stable isotope ratios in cellulose as
paleo - thermometers and developing the necessary computer software
for processing the data.
See Annan et al 2005 and 2006
for interesting approach using the
paleo record.
Ultimately
for me as a non expert, I haven't seen any convincing explanation to explain why the
paleo record (which shows a warmer arctic and no corresponding large methane release) isn't a good analogue of the current warming trend in the arctic.
The
paleo record is clearly showing a constancy in climate with a variability from 1500 to 1920 centred on around the minus 0.3 to 0.5 C anomaly mark,
for the core models.
Worst - case droughts of the 20th century, unlike those of the
paleo record, do not contain episodes of many consecutive decades without high flows, so critical
for refilling of reservoirs (41).
The oscillations in the
paleo record were TOO LARGE
for the model to account
for.
Even issues which are typically taken to be the sign of a more legitimate skepticism (like arguing
for a low sensitivity), are now constrained by data and paleoclimate evidence, and mechanisms that could cause such model errors or misinterpretation of the
paleo -
record need to be shown by those who argue so confidently against it.
Of
for pete's sake, Gavin is only saying that the
paleo record during just the past few ice age cycles seems to constrain the «sensitivity of CO2 to temperature» to far less than what Salby seems to be implying.
Paleo proxies, fun entertainment value though they be, add up to a puny fragment of the reliability and utility of the lamentably vague modern instrumental
record,
for the uses that Climatology would wish to put them,
for all the efforts made to clean up the datasets.
A great many people have looked at the
paleo record at many locations, and more such
records — each
for a particular site — are being published.
Also, the extreme event validity is very difficult one
for climate models because even in the
paleo record we don't have an exact analogue
for what we might be looking at in 100 years.
Thanks
for your historical perspective on a topic where we have myopically concentrated on
paleo - climate evidence but neglected the historical
record, which may actually tell us much more.