Now, the practical implication of
paleoclimate work on the political scene.
At least then, its missions did not include
paleoclimate work or using bad social network analysis to attack peer review in paleoclimate.
One thing I keep wondering about (in relationship to storms, drought, in particular) is how
paleoclimate work so often resets the bar on what is thought of as rare or extreme.
A) implicit, but rare (as revealed, for example, through
paleoclimate work in sub-Saharan Africa) and the Northeastern U.S.,
Not exact matches
Other prior
work suggesting a link between terrestrial
paleoclimate and solar luminosity variations has not provided any specific mechanism.
The award is well - deserved for many reasons, including but not limited to pioneering
work on
paleoclimate, a very productive scientific output, and for aplomb in spite of being a «lightning rod» for personal attacks from anti-science forces.
For question (1) IPCC 2013
Working Group, The Physical Basis, Chapter 5, Information from
Paleoclimate Archives:
Although some earlier
work along similar lines had been done by other
paleoclimate researchers (Ed Cook, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Ray Bradley, Malcolm Hughes, and Henry Diaz being just a few examples), before Mike, no one had seriously attempted to use all the available
paleoclimate data together, to try to reconstruct the global patterns of climate back in time before the start of direct instrumental observations of climate, or to estimate the underlying statistical uncertainties in reconstructing past temperature changes.
Indeed, the
paleoclimate community, with help from the various funding agencies, e.g. NSF, NOAA, etc., is actively engaged in
work that should extend our knowledge at the relevant temporal resolutions (i.e. decadal) several millennia back in time.
However, it is not foolproof — a deeply flawed paper can end up being published under a number of different potential circumstances: (i) the
work is submitted to a journal outside the relevant field (e.g. a paper on
paleoclimate submitted to a social science journal) where the reviewers are likely to be chosen from a pool of individuals lacking the expertise to properly review the paper, (ii) too few or too unqualified a set of reviewers are chosen by the editor, (iii) the reviewers or editor (or both) have agendas, and overlook flaws that invalidate the paper's conclusions, and (iv) the journal may process and publish so many papers that individual manuscripts occasionally do not get the editorial attention they deserve.
Now, on the thresholds business, you should be aware that I'm probably more conservative on this than most in the
paleoclimate research community, especially those (like Alley, and me) that have
worked mostly on ice cores, looking at longer timescales.
(However, McIttrick's information did not hold up under world wide fact checking - «Wahl and Ammann (2007 and Briffa, Keith R.; Duplessy, Jean - Claude; Joos, Fortunat; Masson - Delmotte, Valérie (2007), «Chapter 6:
Paleoclimate»,
Working Group I: The Physical Basis of Climate Change, IPCC).
Think of all the
work on the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth, the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis on the Early Earth and its role in the transition from a methane - dominated to a CO2 - dominated greenhouse, Martian
paleoclimate, the climate of Venus and Titan, the nature of the glacial - interglacial cycles, and so many more.
Almost all of the authors here at Realclimate have done substantial
work in
paleoclimate for decades, as you can see from our publication lists (including the textbook Paleoclimatology).
It would be desirable as well if journals publishing statistical
paleoclimate articles followed econometric journal practices by requiring the archiving of
working code as a condition of review.
I am
working with Dr. Katrin Meissner, who primarily studies ocean, carbon cycle, and
paleoclimate modelling.
The investigative blogger Deep Climate has been
working to set the record straight on how an orchestrated campaign by members of Congress, industry - funded global warming denialist groups and PR operatives, and professional «skeptics» has spread misleading information about the
paleoclimate... Continue reading →
As Review Editor of Chapter 6
Paleoclimate of the
Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, «Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis», I can confirm that the authors have in my view dealt with reviewers comments to the extent that can be reasonably expected.
In my opinion, while the techniques used in the original Mann et al papers may have been slightly flawed, the
work was the first of its kind and deserves considerable credit for moving the field of
paleoclimate research forward.
This network consists of scientists from 9 regional
working groups, each of which collects and processes the best
paleoclimate (past climate change) data from their respective region.
My subsequent
work over many years has explored several different aspects of the field of
paleoclimate.
Steve McIntyre was another Expert Reviewer who made a large number of detailed criticisms on the
Working Group 1 report, specifically on the
paleoclimate chapter (Chapter 6).
The project's
working groups continue to grow, sourced from the broad
paleoclimate science community.
Similarly, sort of fittiing into this concern... I was very bothered that Wegman did not FOLLOW UP his initial report with more
work in
paleoclimate.
Cordially invite them to engage, and
work with them to try to change the culture in the
paleoclimate community.
Actually, there is not a good open access option for most of my
work, as I have grumbled before, what with the EGU climate journal focussing specifically on
paleoclimate.
I'm tempted to post this question: «Gavin, in light of the two responses I've quoted, how far back in
paleoclimate record do you think is relevant to your
work?»
Any who are interested in an meticulous analysis of
paleoclimate proxies and reconstructions should see the archives at climate Audit.The
work done there is of the highest quality.
Anyone who would like to discuss with me the facts revealed by the Wegman report that there is a
paleoclimate mafia controlling what gets published, that they have systematically published erroneous interpretations of paleoclimatic data, and that almost any paleoclimatic temperature profile can be obtained depending on how you manipulate the proxies, just email me at drdrapp [at] earthlink.net and tell me your name, address, professional affiliation, and recent
work you have done climate science.
It was mainly because guys like this — ok, shall be nameless, you read it yourself [points to slide with images of David Halpern, NASA and Mark Eakin NOAA]-- Who at that time was actually
working for NOAA and NASA and was funding some of those guys like Michael Mann and all that on
paleoclimate study was saying, look man, we need some kind of cogent reply, some kind of serious critical discussion so they could pass on to somebody in OSTP.
PS — I'd be very interested to hear a bit more about what you are referring to when you say a «procedure of
working out from good data has much to recommend to
paleoclimate.»
A: Even 20 years ago there was
work on time series modeling of recent and
paleoclimate temperatures (Ghil and Vautard, etc.) The tools of (then current) large scale Kalman filtering were well understood by climate scientists from the dynamic meteorology side of the game (I think Eugene Isaacson brokered some of that deal).
Broecker is most famous for his extensive
work on
paleoclimate and ocean geochemistry.
Plus, we
work with proxies for
paleoclimate.