This metric comes follows on from work that Hansen did a decade ago exploring the question of what it would take for people to notice climate changing, since they only directly experience the weather (Hansen et al, 1998)(pdf), and is similar to metrics used by Pall et al and other recent
papers on the attribution of extremes.
The team did not only look at specific events however but also published a number of conceptual
papers on attribution as a science, CPDN as a unique capability and climate modelling in general (10 - 15).
Not exact matches
Extracts sourced from ACCC, «Cattle and beef markets — a market study by the ACCC Issues
Paper (7 April 2016) and reproduced pursuant to Creative Commons By
Attribution 3.0 Australia licence as specified
on the ACCC website.
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Paper and Draft Report) and reproduced pursuant to Creative Commons By
Attribution 3.0 Australia licence as specified
on the PC website.
Harper Review Issues
Paper 2014 Material reproduced pursuant to Creative Commons By
Attribution 3.0 Australia licence as specified
on Harper Review website © Commonwealth of Australia 2014
As ScienceInsider reported
on Thursday, the journal's editor, Graham Parker, retracted the
paper on 21 July after it was discovered that several paragraphs in the introduction had been copied, without
attribution, from a 2007 review article.
The understanding of the physics of greenhouse gases and the accumulation of evidence for GHG - driven climate change is now overwhelming — and much of that information has not yet made it into formal
attribution studies — thus scientists
on the whole are more sure of the
attribution than is reflected in those
papers.
Note that (somewhat confusingly) she * assumes * the
attribution is 100 % in her
papers on estimating climate sensitivity.
We recently published a
paper exploring the impact of observational uncertainty
on an
attribution analysis.
In this case, the committee might have discovered more than a few
papers by one of them
on the subject, such as Risbey and Kandlikar (2002) «Expert Assessment of Uncertainties in Detection and
Attribution of Climate Change» in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, or that Prof. Risbey was a faculty member in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference).
Well, given that I was working
on the reply to my uncertainty monster
paper, where the IPCC grand poobahs were telling me that they did it right in AR4 and they had natural variability figured out, I was rather surprised to see these comments, especially since one of the persons quoted was a coauthor of the reply criticizing the
attribution arguments in my uncertainty monster
paper.
I refer to this generally in my draft «uncertainty monster»
paper (will resume working
on the revisions to that
paper once my proposal is submitted) as a significant reason in support of my thesis that the «very likely» statement in the IPCC
attribution statement is over confident
Scientists do have better things to do with their time than answer questions raised
on climate skeptic blogs, and as a result, you will only generally be assured of a climate change
paper taking a stance
on the cause of the change if the subject of the
paper is an
attribution study.
That is, to the best of our current knowledge, ~ 87 % of climate scientists (
on attribution), and ~ 97 % of climate science
papers.
there is a highly interesting discussion of how a «very likely» level of confidence as to
attribution was obtained in AR4 in a McKitrick
paper in 2007: http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick.final.pdf after having a look
on it, you may conclude that IPCC expert knowledge may be closer to alchemy than to science
Dr Peter Stott, who leads the Climate Monitoring and
Attribution team at the Met Office and wasn't involved in the
paper, says we shouldn't admit defeat and ignore the impacts of climate change
on circulation patterns.
A new report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) presents the findings of their analysis of all research
papers published since the Paris summit two years ago
on the
attribution of specific events to climate change.
Thanks for the 3
papers, the 1st was a real eye openner but was essentially confirming what I said which is that most model
attribution expts based
on comparison of historical forcing and runs held at pre - industrial condition suggest long term change is essentially forced.The point is the Karnauskas
paper bucks the trend in understanding as expressed by the Ipcc (the consensus or whatever).
Other honourable mentions in the Carbon Brief survey of most influential climate
papers go to Norman Phillips, whose 1956
paper described the first general circulation model, William Nordhaus's 1991 paperon the economics of the greenhouse effect, and a
paper by Camile Parmesan and Gary Yohe in 2003, considered by many to provide the first formal
attribution of climate change impacts
on animal and plant species.
Never mind that oceanic forcing
attribution was established prior to 2006, climate science is still cranking out lightweight
papers that try to peg the blame
on fossil fuel emissions.
We discussed this in detail in our survey
paper http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es501998e, because the responses suggested that the AR4 statement
on attribution has been widely misinterpreted.
The measure used by TCP is perfectly reasonable, if you understand the nature of scientific publication, and are aware that
attribution studies are only a small fraction of the
papers publiched
on climate change.
Duarte (and many AGW «skeptics») treat Cook et al as a survey of
papers which provide evidence for
attribution of 50 % (or greater than 0 % based
on their misrepresentation) of recent warming to anthropogenic factors.
In the case of that climate
attribution chart it is based
on a clearly identified
paper, so I don't think it is too much of a leap of faith to accept it at face value.
Dr Balan Sarojini's co-authors
on the new
paper were Prof Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and
Attribution at the Met Office and Professor of Detection and
Attribution at the University of Exeter, and Dr Emily Black, Associate Professor and expert in water cycle variability at NCAS based at the University of Reading.