But, given the failure
of decades of pledges and agreements aimed at curbing emissions, I suggested it was time to move away from a longstanding focus on numerical goals — such as 350 (
parts per million
of CO2), 80 percent (in emissions cuts) by 2050, a 2 -
degree limit on warming — and toward the goal
of maximizing the suite
of traits I described in those eight words.
Christy and McNider found the rate
of warming has been 0.096
degrees Celsius
per decade after «the removal
of volcanic cooling in the early
part of the record,» which «is essentially the same value we determined in 1994... using only 15 years
of data.»
The reasons for that are many: the timid language
of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called «scientific reticence» in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group
of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn't even see warming as a problem worth addressing; the way that climate denialism has made scientists even more cautious in offering speculative warnings; the simple speed
of change and, also, its slowness, such that we are only seeing effects now
of warming from
decades past; our uncertainty about uncertainty, which the climate writer Naomi Oreskes in particular has suggested stops us from preparing as though anything worse than a median outcome were even possible; the way we assume climate change will hit hardest elsewhere, not everywhere; the smallness (two
degrees) and largeness (1.8 trillion tons) and abstractness (400
parts per million)
of the numbers; the discomfort
of considering a problem that is very difficult, if not impossible, to solve; the altogether incomprehensible scale
of that problem, which amounts to the prospect
of our own annihilation; simple fear.
A doubling
of the pre-industrial levels
of atmospheric CO2
of roughly 280
parts per million, which could occur within
decades unless people curb greenhouse - gas emissions, could eventually boost global average temperatures by around 9
degrees C.»