If you hold a broadly diversified bond portfolio, you'll probably have exposure to
all parts of the yield curve.
The lesson here is that the different
parts of the yield curve do not move in lockstep, and various lending markets can behave differently over any given period.
Generally, a bank looks to borrow, or pay short - term rates to depositors, and lend at the longer - term
part of the yield curve.
This is also printing money * but it is used to buy debt instruments at different
parts of the yield curve, of different maturities.
This includes hedging techniques, such as using futures, options and swap spreads to speculate on rising (or falling) rates along certain
parts of the yield curve, or on specific bond classes or credit ratings.
Not exact matches
In
part, the bond
yield curve — the difference between short - term and long - term interest rates — is an indicator
of future economic growth expectations.
Poor economic performance following inverted
yield curves is one
part of the explanation for these results.
Hence, a flat
yield curve can be seen as a yardstick
of ineffective policy normalization focusing on the «wrong
part of the term structure.»
One factor supporting the Australian dollar over the past couple
of years has been that interest rates right across the
yield curve in Australia, and perceived returns on other assets, have been higher than those in a number
of other countries, particularly those which experienced a recession and a collapse
of share prices in the early
part of this decade.
Flooding the short end
of the
yield curve with liquidity has overwhelmed those seeking permanent liquidity cheaply, by offering large amounts
of temporary liquidity cheaply, and saying that the program could become a regular
part of the Fed's policy tools.
Or does the steepening
yield curve mean investors are worried about the deterioration in the U.S. fiscal outlook, or the potential for a collapse in the U.S. dollar as the Fed floods the world with newly minted currency as
part of its quantitative easing program.
This is a more logical way to think
of the equity premium by decomposing it into three more understandable
parts:
yield curve slope, credit spread, and economic earnings.
Poor economic performance following inverted
yield curves is one
part of the explanation for these results.
Regarding the inverted
yield curve, the falling rates environment sounds logical, but it doesn't explain the early
part of this decade when the
yield on the ten - year went from over 6 % down to under 4 %.
In the intermediate
part of the
curve, seven year non-callable municipal bonds tracked in the S&P AMT - Free Municipal Series 2021 Index have outpaced the equity market by returning 4.41 % with
yields dropping by 33bps this year.
Depending on the shape
of the prevailing SGS
yield curve, there may be certain occasions where the reference SGS
yields do not allow a particular Savings Bond issue to have a monotonically increasing step - up interest feature (i.e. the implied coupon rates based on the reference SGS
yields may decrease over
part or all
of the issue's tenor).
That said, my recent 2 -
part series on the shape
of the
yield curve suggested that the
curve shape was the sort where we often get negative surprises.
That's
part of what I would tell you to watch — if the
yield curve flattens quickly, the FOMC will not do so much, most likely.
Of course, part of the reason the yield curve is low in the first place is because markets are weighing recession risk, perhaps using historical probabilitie
Of course,
part of the reason the yield curve is low in the first place is because markets are weighing recession risk, perhaps using historical probabilitie
of the reason the
yield curve is low in the first place is because markets are weighing recession risk, perhaps using historical probabilities.
Other
parts of the gold story include indicators
of economic confidence and financial - market liquidity, such as credit spreads and the
yield curve.