The advantage of such partially - coupled models is that they can be driven by
past atmospheric conditions and the simulations match well the observed sea ice variability, which is strongly forced by the atmosphere.
Ice cores not only contain evidence of
past atmospheric conditions, but they also may hold clues about astronomical events.
Not exact matches
Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to
past changes of boundary
conditions, including
atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.
In Kiehl and Trenberth 1997, they find a 155 W / m2 total greenhouse effect for approximately present - day Earth
conditions (among the approximations: surface is a perfect (isothermal **) blackbody, and the use a representative 1 - dimensional
atmospheric column (instead of seperate calculations for each location over the globe at each time over the course of a period of time sufficient to describe a climatic state — but note righthand side of p. 200, just
past halfway down the column)... a few other things).
Locked in the ancient striations — each representing a winter's accumulation of compacted snow — is a unique natural record of climatic and
atmospheric conditions from decades, centuries, even millenniums
past.
While the
conditions in the geological
past are useful indicators in suggesting climate and
atmospheric conditions only vary within a a certain range (for example, that life has existed for over 3 billion years indicates that the oxygen level of the atmosphere has stayed between about 20 and 25 % throughout that time), I also think some skeptics are too quick to suggest the lack of correlation between temperature and CO2 during the last 550 million years falsifies the link between CO2 and warming (too many differences in
conditions to allow any such a conclusion to be drawn — for example the Ordovician with high CO2 and an ice age didn't have any terrestrial life).
Arbetter et al. (National Ice Center); 4.4; Statistical The system determines the relationships between sea ice and
atmospheric conditions over the
past ten years to determine the likelihood of ice being present this year.
With current greenhouse gas levels now in the range of 400 - 405 parts per million coinciding with substantial jumps in glacial melt and sea level rise, it may be worth taking a look back at times in the geological
past when
atmospheric heating
conditions were similar to those seen today.
Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to
past changes of boundary
conditions, including
atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.
While different continental configurations, elevations, and
atmospheric circulation patterns now prevail on Earth, precluding a return to those exact
past conditions, the underlying message is that warming of 4o - 7o will result in a biotically very different world.
There are numerous models that show a relationship, but the models omit more elements of
atmospheric complexity than they include (and exclude any solar forcing with the exception of irradiance in some models), they can not backcast
past ca 1900, they can not forecast next month, and they do generate greatly dissimilar forecasts when fed with the same assumptions of future
conditions.
It's the Earth's history - how the Earth responded in the
past to changes in boundary
conditions, such as
atmospheric composition.
Teleconnected
atmospheric / oceanic / orbital systems causes rapid heat rise over land but jagged falls back to cold
conditions, thus explaining the
past 800,000 years of stadial / interstadial swings.