First, this is possible because helioseismic data provide the most precise measure ever of the solar cycle, which ultimately yields more profound physical limits on
past irradiance variations.
Not exact matches
Changes in insolation are also thought to have arisen from small
variations in solar
irradiance, although both timing and magnitude of
past solar radiation fluctuations are highly uncertain (see Chapters 2 and 6; Lean et al., 2002; Gray et al., 2005; Foukal et al., 2006).
Tying those factors together in order to estimate solar
irradiance variations in the
past is crucial for attributing
past climate changes, particularly in the pre-industrial.
We only have direct observations of total solar
irradiance (TSI) since the beginning of the satellite era and substantial evidence for
variations in the level of solar activity (from cosmogenic isotopes or sunspot records) in the
past.
See e.g. this review paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated
past changes in natural forcing due to solar
irradiance variations and explosive volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little Ice Age» (which includes enhanced cooling in certain regions such as Europe).
Recent sun - cloud connections have a decreasing correlation with CRF, but a good correlation between (low) clouds and solar
irradiance, see figure 1 in http://folk.uio.no/jegill/papers/2002GL015646.pdf Also in the 6 May 2005 Science, there is an article which finds a long - term link between solar intensity (based on 14C
variations) and monsoon intensity over the
past 9000 years...
Soon, W., 2005: Variable solar
irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal
variations in the Arctic - wide surface air temperature record of the
past 130 years, Geophysical Research Letters32: doi.10.1029 / 2005GL023429.
http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «Global (and regional) surface temperature fluctuations in the
past 120 years reflect, as in the space era, a combination of solar, volcanic, ENSO, and anthropogenic influences, with relative contributions shown in Figure 6.22 The adopted solar brightness changes in this scenario are based on a solar surface flux transport model; although long - term changes are «50 % larger than the 11 - year
irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller than the original estimates based on
variations in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic activity.
During the
past 10000 years, the Sun has experienced the substantial
variations in activity and there have been numerous attempts to reconstruct solar
irradiance.
6.11.1 Total Solar
Irradiance 6.11.1.1 The observational record 6.11.1.2 Reconstructions of past variations of total solar irradiance 6.11.2 Mechanisms for Amplification of Solar Forcing 6.11.2.1 Solar ultraviolet variation 6.11.2.2 Cosmic rays
Irradiance 6.11.1.1 The observational record 6.11.1.2 Reconstructions of
past variations of total solar
irradiance 6.11.2 Mechanisms for Amplification of Solar Forcing 6.11.2.1 Solar ultraviolet variation 6.11.2.2 Cosmic rays
irradiance 6.11.2 Mechanisms for Amplification of Solar Forcing 6.11.2.1 Solar ultraviolet
variation 6.11.2.2 Cosmic rays and clouds
There have been numerous research papers and reviews published over the
past 10 years, including several in prestigious journals such as Nature and Science, that conclude that the observed temperature changes over the
past 100 years are consistent with the combined changes in atmospheric aerosols (volcanic and anthropogenic), land surface changes,
variations in solar
irradiance and increases in greenhouse gases.
Variable solar
irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal
variations in the Arctic - wide surface air temperature record of the
past 130 years.Geophys.
W. Soon, «Variable solar
irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal
variations in the Arctic - wide surface air temperature record of the
past 130 years», Geophysical Research Letters, 32, doi.10.1029 / 2005GL023429 (2005).