Not exact matches
The effects of aerosol injections are at least somewhat known, since
volcanic eruptions produce aerosols naturally and have produced
cooling in the
past.
See e.g. this review paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated
past changes in natural forcing due to solar irradiance variations and explosive
volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little Ice Age» (which includes enhanced
cooling in certain regions such as Europe).
Secondly, the conclusion at this stage simply a hypothesis, a hypothesis that can account for these key enigmatic features in the actual tree - ring hemisphere temperature reconstruction: the attenuation, and the increasing (back in time) delay and temporal smearing of the
cooling response to
past volcanic forcing.
If we take some notable volcanoes in the
past 600 years (Figure 1), we can confirm that frost rings in bristlecone pines are good indicators of large explosive
volcanic eruptions, similar to the known coincidence of hemispheric
cooling evidenced in growth rings of European trees in the years around historically dated eruptions.
Some longer - term effects may remain after several consecutive eruptions, but even then, the 0.1 K
cooling by
volcanic eruptions over the
past 600 years (0.3 K modeled over the
past 100 years, see fig. 1 on this page) seems rather high...
We now have excellent proxy
volcanic data and pretty good ocean heat content proxy data over the
past 2000 years, during which their were both warmer and
cooler periods.
Combining the effects of
volcanic aerosols, plus the negative IPO, it is actually amazing that instead of a mere «hiatus» we haven't seen more severe
cooling over the
past 15 years.
Best estimate of natural external forcings in the
past 50 years:
Cooling, due to solar and
volcanic measurements.
There they reflect sunlight back into space, mimicking the influence of large
volcanic eruptions that have temporarily
cooled the planet in the
past.
For example, the accumulated effect of
volcanic eruptions during the
past decade, including the Icelandic volcano with the impossible name, Eyjafjallajökull, may have had a greater
cooling effect on the earth's surface than has been accounted for in most climate model simulations.
Given the absence of large
volcanic eruptions in the
past two decades (the last one being Mount Pinatubo in 1991), multiple
volcanic eruptions would cause a
cooling tendency [196] and reduce heat storage in the ocean [197].