In each of these experiments, a non-uniform
pattern of sea level rise emerges above the background of temporal variability in the latter part of the 21st century.
Increased melting from high latitudes should produce an identifiable
pattern of sea level change («fingerprints») that may provide evidence of an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.
There is a strong regional
pattern of sea level variation on multidecadal and longer timescales associated with e.g. the differential gravitational pull of growing or decaying continental ice sheets.
«That isn't even close,» Harvard University geophysicist Jerry Mitrovica told attendees yesterday at the annual meeting of AAAS (which publishes Science) in Washington, D.C. «Each ice sheet has its own
pattern of sea level rise.»
Over the Pacific Ocean, the PDO and NPGO are the two dominant climate modes and they are associated with global signatures and distinct spatial
patterns of sea level changes.
Not exact matches
From disease to weather
patterns, the meltdown
of Arctic
sea ice — close to record
levels again this year — is changing the globe
Excessive swings in the world's climate
patterns include the potential
of increasing global warming and
sea level rise.
As a result, estimates
of coastal vulnerability — which once focussed on
sea level rise — now have to factor in changing
patterns of storm erosion, more intense storms, and other coastal effects.
The gathering will draw approximately 400 representatives from other Arctic nations and interested foreign observers, and will give Obama a platform to highlight how changes in the Arctic will affect the rest
of the world by accelerating warming, contributing to
sea -
level rise and changing precipitation
patterns at lower altitudes.
As climate change alters weather
patterns — hastening desertification in some places and sopping others — increases the strength
of natural disasters — from cyclones to landslides — and raises
sea levels world wide, it will make many areas and livelihoods untenable, say the authors.
If there's anything more complicated than the global forces
of thermal expansion, ice sheet melt and ocean circulation that contribute to worldwide
sea -
level rise, it might be the forces
of real estate speculation and the race - based historical housing
patterns that color present - day gentrification in Miami.
With the cooperation
of the countries involved and funding from the Asian Development Bank, the institute coordinated the work
of 60 researchers, who studied the likely effects that rising
sea levels and changed weather
patterns will have on Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Most
of the world's
seas are yellow and orange, indicating a
pattern of rising
levels.
In late June, the U.S. Government Accountability Office released an assessment
of how the consequences
of climate change, from rising temperatures and
sea levels to changes in precipitation
patterns and
sea ice cover, might impact the military.
It may not be a road map to the next 100 years, but the Pliocene is a rough guide to the high
sea levels, vanishing ice and altered weather
patterns that might arrive hundreds to thousands
of years from now.
At a global scale, the increased melting
of the ice sheet contributes to rising
sea level and may impact global ocean circulation
patterns through the so - called «thermohaline circulation'that sustains among others, the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe warm.
«By refining the spatial
pattern of mass loss in the world's second largest — and most unstable — ice sheet, and learning how that
pattern has evolved, we are steadily increasing our understanding
of ice loss processes, which will lead to better - informed projections
of sea level rise.»
In the future, Conrad wants to use this new understanding
of mantle flow
patterns to predict changes in
sea level over geologic time.
The large error bars on that number inject uncertainty into our projections
of the effects
of climate change — from changing storm
patterns to
sea level rise.
The analysis acknowledges that several U.S. cities and regions have taken the lead in examining how to adapt to
sea level rise, changing rain and snowfall
patterns, heat waves and other effects
of climate change.
In the latest 161 - page document, dated March 9, EPA officials include several new studies highlighting how a warming planet is likely to mean more intense U.S. heat waves and hurricanes, shifting migration
patterns for plants and wildlife, and the possibility
of up to a foot
of global
sea level rise in the next century.
Researchers have shown that
sea -
level rise is changing
patterns of the tides in the Delaware and Chesapeake bays.
Adding one meter
of sea -
level rise to the model resulted in a distinct
pattern of changes to the high and low tides throughout the Chesapeake Bay.
In addition, global
sea level can fluctuate due to climate
patterns such as El Niños and La Niñas (the opposing phases
of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) which influence ocean temperature and global precipitation
patterns.
The team used geological evidence
of the past few million years to derive a background
pattern of natural
sea -
level rise.
They are identifiable in
sea level rise, altered rainfall
patterns, retreat
of Arctic
sea ice, ocean acidification, and many other aspects
of the climate system.
Axel Timmermann and Tobias Friedrich constructed a numerical model that quantifies the effects
of past climate and
sea -
level change on global human migration
patterns over the past 125,000 years.
Normalised RMS error in simulation
of climatological
patterns of monthly precipitation, mean
sea level pressure and surface air temperature.
Nieves said an example is the U.S. West Coast, where the phase
of a multi-decadal ocean climate
pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has helped keep
sea level rise lower during the past two decades.
Some things we might do if we got desperate enough: scrub greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere technologically, geo - engineering to create cooling effects to offset greenhouse heating, [SLIDE 42] lots
of adaptation policies, cropping
patterns, heat drought and salt - resistant crops, strengthen public health and environmental engineering defenses against tropical disease, new water projects for flood control and drought management, dyke storm surge barriers, avoiding further development on flood plains in near
sea level.
Mitrovica, J. X., Tamisiea, M. E., Davis, J. L. & Milne, G. A. Recent mass balance
of polar ice sheets inferred from
patterns of global
sea -
level change.
While it is often occurring in remote regions, ongoing change with the cryosphere has impacts on people all around the world:
sea level rise affects coastlines globally, billions
of people rely on water from snowpack, and the diminishing
sea ice that covers the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in Earth's climate and weather
patterns.
In the long term, changes in
sea level were
of minor importance to rainfall
patterns in north western Sumatra With the end
of the last Ice Age came rising temperatures and melting polar ice sheets, which were accompanied by an increase in rainfall around Indonesia and many other regions
of the world..
A reconstruction
of extratropical Indo - Pacific
sea -
level pressure
patterns during the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
Throughout the record, they found that a combination
of two naturally - occurring climate
patterns — the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-- were associated with «hot spots»
of sea level rise along the Eastern seaboard, including the southeastern hot spot from 2011 to 2015.
Increases and decreases in glaciation during the Pennsylvanian resulted in
sea level fluctuations that can be seen in the rocks as striped
patterns of alternating shale and coal layers.
Features information on; -
sea level rise - threatened species - changing rainfall
patterns - changing to farming - the threat
of climate driven conflict A sheet to complete accompanies this information.
The frequency and magnitude
of extreme events, relative to current
levels, follows a sharply escalating
pattern as the magnitude
of future
sea level rise increases.
This approach may not be useful for quantitative reconstructions
of past spatial
patterns of climate fields, e.g. surface temperature,
sea level pressure, drought, etc..
The assessment considered the impacts
of several key drivers
of climate change:
sea level change; alterations in precipitation
patterns and subsequent delivery
of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation
patterns; changes in frequency and intensity
of coastal storms; and increased
levels of atmospheric CO2.
Does the
pattern of change (warming raises the equilibrium temperature, cooling decreases it), indicate a negative feedback on
sea level change (e.g. as land ice melts it requires a little warmer temperature to continue to melt further land ice... and vice versa??).
I think these are simply features
of global climate that are embedded and as predictable as other large features like hurricane
patterns, the gulf stream, the jet stream,
sea ice extent and mass, global glacial conditions,
sea level etc..
Given the number
of ways that things can go wrong with continued CO2 emissions (from ocean acidfication and
sea level rise to simple warming, shifting precipitation
patterns, release
of buried carbon in perma - frost, and the possibility
of higher climate sensitivities — which seem to be needed to account for glacial / inter-glacial transitions), crossing our fingers and carrying on with BAU seems nothing short
of crazy to me.
In the frozen wilds
of Alaska, the Arctic, Antarctic, and elsewhere, wildlife biologists have noted sudden changes in animal migration
patterns, a loss
of their habitat, a rise in
sea levels.
Note also that when you do a PCA decomposition
of the total
sea level field (as done, e.g., in Church and White), the ENSO effect goes mostly into the next - in - line PCA (their number 1) and its EOF, which indeed looks like an ENSO type
pattern (their figure 2 top right).
Mike's work, like that
of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use
of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth
of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role
of solar variations in explaining the
pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes
of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global
sea level, and even a bit
of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis
of beryllium - 7 measurements).
If the gas concentration exceeds that for long, they warn, the world can expect decades
of disruptive climate
patterns, rising
sea levels, drought and famine.
Here are some possible choices — in order
of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting,
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing *
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior
of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed
PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints»)
of the past 30 years agree
An equally important step is to place the areas
of ongoing scientific dispute (hurricane strength, extinction impact, pace
of sea -
level rise) within the broader context
of what is not in dispute (more CO2 emissions will heat the world, changing climate
patterns and raising
seas for centuries to come).
Patterns of anomalously high
sea levels are attributed to El Niño — related changes to atmospheric pressure over the Gulf
of Mexico and eastern Canada and to the wind field over the Northeast U.S. continental shelf.