Assuming the spatial
patterns of the warming shown by the GISS LOTI data are close to being correct, then the differences with the lower troposphere data appear to show that lower troposphere temperature data would be of questionable value for infilling the HADCRUT4 data.
Not exact matches
An analysis
of influenza
patterns show that
warmer - than - average winters coincided with more severe outbreaks, bad news for a
warming world
Although scientists hesitate to draw a direct relationship between weather and climate, observation
of weather
patterns shows a definite correlation between extreme weather events and a
warming climate.
While the
pattern for Central and Western Europe was one
of a consistent increase in flood risk, the study also found that flood risk may actually decrease with
warmer temperatures in some countries in Eastern Europe, but those results also
show a high degree
of uncertainty.
The thinness
of the fibers and the
pattern of the scales on them
showed they were cashmere, the extraordinarily fine,
warm wool from cashmere goats.
«The
pattern and magnitude
of warming shown in this [Geophysical Research Letters] study is alarming,» said Nick Golledge, a Victoria University
of Wellington researcher who led the Nature Communications study.
The
patterns typically
show lower numbers
of wasps after cold, wet springs, and higher numbers after
warm, dry springs,» says lead author Professor Phil Lester from Victoria's School
of Biological Sciences.
The north - south gradient
of increasing glacier retreat was found to
show a strong
pattern with ocean temperatures, whereby water is cold in the north - west, and becomes progressively
warmer at depths below 100m further south.
the Arctic has
shown a
pattern of strong low - level atmospheric
warming over the Arctic Ocean in autumn because
of heat loss from the ocean back to the atmosphere....
For the change in annual mean surface air temperature in the various cases, the model experiments
show the familiar
pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum
warming in the high latitudes
of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern Ocean (due to ocean heat uptake)(2)
In the lower left panel
of Figure 1, which
shows temperature trends since 1979, the
pattern in the Pacific Ocean features
warming and cooling regions related to El Niño.
Thompson and Solomon (2002)
showed that the Southern Annular Mode (a
pattern of variability that affects the westerly winds around Antarctica) had been in a more positive phase (stronger winds) in recent years, and that this acts as a barrier, preventing
warmer air from reaching the continent.
First is the ocean
warming pattern in the top 100 metres
of ocean
shown in panel 3 (a).
(2) Climate models
show a «cold blob» in the subpolar Atlantic as well as enhanced
warming off the US east coast as a characteristic response
pattern to a slowdown
of the AMOC.
This may demonstrate that the impact
of warming on precipitation
patterns was localized, with different regions
showing a range
of effects.
While weather
patterns have a big impact on monthly temperatures — as the cooler weather
of early August
shows — the overall
warming of the planet is tipping the odds in favor
of record heat.
While a strong El Niño and other climate
patterns are playing a role in regional and global temperatures, the vast majority
of the excess heat this year comes from manmade global
warming, a Climate Central analysis
showed.
«The observed
pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, doesn't
show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse
warming,» wrote lead author David Douglas, a climate expert from the University
of Rochester, in New York state.
Remember also that the US is only about 2 %
of the globe and the global surface record corresponds closely with satellite measurements
of the lower troposhere, and also the sea surface temperatures
show a strikingly similar
pattern of warming.
Dr. Easterling said that the new analysis
shows that the adjustments that are made to account for shifting
patterns of climate - data collection (the same adjustments are among the targets
of those challenging global
warming evidence) are robust.
Using (i) a state -
of - the - art global climate model and (ii) a low - order energy balance model, we
show that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic
pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic
pattern of surface
warming at any given time.
Therefore, in order to come up with an alternative explanation, one has to simultaneously
show why GHGs are not causing the
warming they would be expected to based on physical principles, and at the same time come up with a natural source
of temperature change that can match the magnitude and
patterns of the observed change.
In terms
of the gold that a climate science denier might find in the paper, at the very least, they could argue that the fact that the troposphere isn't
warming more quickly than the surface
shows that the climate models are unreliable — even though the models predict just the
pattern of warming that we see — with the troposphere
warming more quickly than the surface over the ocean but less quickly than the surface over land.
Winter 2009 - 2010
showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind
patterns of the Arctic; the so - called
Warm Arctic - Cold Continents
pattern.
Even if it could be
shown that climate is more sensitive to solar variability than the strict radiative forcing would suggest (along the lines
of Shindell et al) one would still have to contend with the fact that we know the solar variability for the past fifty years quite well, and it does not do the kind
of things necessary to give the present
warming pattern.
Your single PDO - related link in # 65 provides a single reference that apparently supports the idea that most CGCMs
show global
warming inducing an anomaly
pattern similar to that
of the
warm phase
of ENSO.
There was an interesting study in Nature Geoscience last Sunday
showing pretty clearly that the accelerating flow
of the Jacobshavn glacier in recent years was most likely driven by an influx
of warm deep seawater, and that shift was likely due to changes in pressure and wind
patterns over the North Atlantic Ocean.
Thus, modeling exercises have for decades now
shown some pretty persistent
patterns of recurrence, such as drying trends under
warming in certain areas (notably the Mediterranean basin, including the Middle East) and the American Southwest —
patterns we see in the real world.
However, to support the assertion that global
warming is responsible for a great deal
of damage from such events, it is sufficient to
show that such events have the «signature»
of global
warming — for example, that specific global
warming - related factors such as abnormally high sea surface temperatures, elevated water vapor levels, and altered jet stream
patterns contributed to making Hurricane Sandy what it was — even if those factors can not be precisely quantified.
Typical temperature reconstructions for the late Pliocene however [see one at the top
of this story - 3.3 - 3.0 Ma] already
show an Earth in which a
warmer climatic state is indeed [through for instance ice albedo feedbacks] relatively strong around the poles, and (on average) weaker around the equator, exactly the
pattern that is monitored under the current climate
warming.
We are just in the
warming phase
of the climate
pattern and this increased the sea level and the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere as
shown:
Interestingly, the paper «Climate Trends and Global food production since 1980» (Lobell, Schlenker, Costa - Roberts, in Sciencexpress, 5 May, Science 1204531) confirms my finding
of the absence
of climate change in the USA: «A notable exception to the [global]
warming pattern is the United States, which produces c. 40 %
of global maize and soybean and experienced a slight cooling over the period... the country with largest overall share
of crop production (United States)
showed no [adverse] effect due to the lack
of significant climate trends».
This single
pattern has a long - term global
warming rate
of 0.06 deg C per decade and an oscillation due to ocean cycles (http://bit.ly/nfQr92)
of 0.5 deg C every 30 years as
shown in the following two graphs.
«These findings
show that climate change can have dramatic effects on human societies and highlight the necessity to understand the effect
of global
warming on rainfall
patterns in China and all over the world,» the authors write.
Nares Strait Recent ice advection
patterns;
warm water advances into the Arctic from the Atlantic; ice distribution
patterns: all
of these things
show that conditions continue to be advantageous for export
of ice through Fram Strait.
2) Even if the satellite data contradicted the remainder
of the data, is it more likely that one data set depending on the calibration
of one instrument is correct, or dozens
of data sets using dozens
of methods all
showing the same
pattern of warming?
The paleo record
shows the same
pattern of warming which we are now experiencing has occurred cyclically and correlates with solar cycle changes.
And remember, the satellite data are one small part
of a vast amount
of data that overwhelmingly
show our planet is
warming up: retreating glaciers, huge amounts
of ice melting at both poles, the «death spiral»
of arctic ice every year at the summer minimum over time, earlier annual starts
of warm weather and later starts
of cold weather,
warming oceans, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, more extreme weather, changing weather
patterns overall, earlier snow melts, and lower snow cover in the spring...
Stations ranked as «poor» in a survey by Anthony Watts and his team
of the most important temperature recording stations in the U.S., (known as the USHCN — the US Historical Climatology Network),
showed the same
pattern of global
warming as stations ranked «OK.»
This is based on the high correlation (r = 0.88)
of the observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented by cyclic global mean temperature
pattern with an overall linear
warming rate
of 0.6 deg C per century as
shown below:
In addition, the
pattern of sea surface temperatures at low latitudes is extremely important for regional climate variations (
shown, for example, by the increased likelihood
of heavy winter rainfall in California when the eastern tropical Pacific
warms in El Niño events).
One recent study that examined the
patterns in
warming and coral bleaching between 1985 and 2012 found that 97 percent
of the sites it studied had
warming trends with 60 percent
showing severe conditions.
The
pattern of temperatures
shows a rise as the world emerged from the last deglaciation,
warm conditions until the middle
of the Holocene, and a cooling trend over the next 5000 years that culminated around 200 years ago in the Little Ice Age.
They
show that CCS
warm events are associated with a strong and southeastward displacement
of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional
pattern of poleward coastal wind anomalies.
We can
show that the
warming we see (rate and
pattern, plus absence
of any other drivers) suggests strongly that CO2 is the factor.
As for the statistical test, what it does
show (if various assumptions hold and if the null is rejected) is that the
pattern of temperatures was quite unlikely to have been produced if there was no
warming during the period.
«The solar fingerprint
shows a vertical
pattern of free atmosphere temperature changes that has
warming throughout the atmosphere unlike the observed
pattern of warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere -LSB-...]» http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00191.1
The last four indicators
show that the observed
pattern of warming is consistent with what is predicted to occur during greenhouse
warming:
Here we
show that robust across - model relationships exist between the global spatial
patterns of several fundamental attributes
of Earth's top -
of - atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude
of projected global
warming.
This
pattern is a uniform
warming of about 0.06 deg C per decade with an oscillation
of about 0.5 deg C every 30 years as
shown in the following plot.