If a person can not detect a rather precise pattern of warming and
pause in warming in the Global temperature record starting in 1880 I can only say that to me the pattern is obvious.
Not exact matches
It offers many dividends: The opportunity to meet And chat with old and new - found friends; The amiable atmosphere; The comfortable cushioned seat; The promise of two hours clear Of irritating chores, restraints, Dilemmas, quarrels, and complaints; The vespertine impressive hall That grants equality to all And cover for a nap to some; The stirring burst of
warm applause When the conductor comes
in view And talkers instantly grow dumb; The pleasantly suspenseful
pause As the ensemble waits its cue.
On the
warm afternoon of Labor Day, five days before Nebraska would open its football season with a 55 - 14 pasting of Michigan State, Cornhuskers junior defensive end Grant Wistrom
paused as he left the practice field
in Lincoln and pondered the ribbon of greatness that stretched back over two years.
Once
in fresh water he will
pause in holes and runs when freezes set
in; thus the angler, who needs clear water, is eternally forced out
in horrible weather, both when streams are dropping or when they first begin to
warm (a word used only relatively) and rise.
Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was also an author on the paper, said this research expanded on past work, including his own research, that pointed to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation as a factor
in a
warming slowdown by finding a mechanism behind how the Pacific Ocean was able to store enough heat to produce a
pause in surface
warming.
In recent years, scientists have worked to understand why this «pause» in warming has occurred and was not predicted by models (ClimateWire Nov. 1, 2013
In recent years, scientists have worked to understand why this «
pause»
in warming has occurred and was not predicted by models (ClimateWire Nov. 1, 2013
in warming has occurred and was not predicted by models (ClimateWire Nov. 1, 2013).
Jochem Marotzke and Piers M. Forster have now explained the
warming pause in terms of random fluctuations arising from chaotic processes
in the climate system.
However,
in light of our substantiation of the effects of «grand solar minima» upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the current
pausing of «Global
Warming», which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least
in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown
in the recent sunspot cycle.»
A supposed
pause in global
warming that has been fodder for climate change doubters never really existed, researchers reported
in 2015.
FORGET the «
pause»
in global
warming.
«There really hasn't been a
pause in global
warming,» Robeson said.
A whistleblower at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reportedly told the newspaper the agency violated scientific integrity and rushed to publish a landmark scientific paper, which showed no
pause in global
warming, for political reasons.
«There's been a
pause in Northern Hemisphere winter
warming.»
«What this study addresses is what's better described as a false
pause, or slowdown,» rather than a hiatus
in warming, says climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, University Park.
The study also examined anomalies during the «
pause»
in global
warming that scientists have observed since 1998.
Lamar Smith says he has new evidence that a government study discrediting a purported
pause in global
warming was politically motivated, but independent research supports the findings
The deceleration
in rising temperatures during this 15 - year period is sometimes referred to as a «
pause» or «hiatus»
in global
warming, and has raised questions about why the rate of surface
warming on Earth has been markedly slower than
in previous decades.
But that hasn't stopped British newspaper The Mail on Sunday trying to resurrect a dead duck: this time claiming that scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) played fast and loose with data on a well - regarded 2015 paper
in Science that definitively showed there was no
pause in global
warming.
A favourite climate contrarian talking point is that there was a
pause or «hiatus»
in warming from 1998 until the early part of the current decade.
ENJOY the
pause in global
warming while it lasts, because it's probably the last one we will get this century.
So the report notes that the current «
pause»
in new global average temperature records since 1998 — a year that saw the second strongest El Nino on record and shattered
warming records — does not reflect the long - term trend and may be explained by the oceans absorbing the majority of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases as well as the cooling contributions of volcanic eruptions.
Study links stronger Pacific trade winds to
pause in global
warming.
Evidence of the «
pause»
in surface
warming «has sparked a lively scientific and public debate», says the Nature Climate Change editorial.
If opposed forcings caused the
pauses in warming then, again, why such a patterned occurence?
A 20 - year
pause in global
warming does not occur
in a single modeled scenario.
There is no longer any evidence of a
pause in warming through present
in any of the land surface temperature records.
They suggest this «
pause»
in the acceleration of carbon dioxide concentrations was,
in part, due to the effect of the temporary slowdown
in global average surface
warming during that same period on respiration, the process by which plants and soils release CO2.
And it's the year
in which any credible sign of a
pause or «hiatus»
in the
warming of Earth's surface through present day was thoroughly refuted.
However, colder temperatures can just
pause the process and result
in larval growth resuming when the air
warms up.2 It's just one more reason why year - round heartworm protection is important.
So if you just took the relative change since 1999, not the absolute numbers as compared to the red curve, their new model would predict the same
warming as a standard scenario run (i.e. the black one), which would hardly have been a reason to go to the worldwide media with a «
pause in warming» prediction.
Using Cowtan and Way as an example again, the team would chose a specific subject;
in this case the claims of a «
warming pause from 1998 to 2012».
The fact that the hindcasts with their method perform worse than a standard IPCC scenario, the number of failed previous cooling predictions, the negative skill
in the Gulf Stream and deep - water formation regions... should these not have cautioned them against going to the media to forecast a
pause in global
warming?
Updated, 7:48 p.m. On time scales from decades to months, fluctuations
in ocean conditions present persistent challenges to climate scientists (see the «
pause»
in warming) and weather forecasters.
(see http: / / wattsupwiththat.com / 2014 / 09 / 11 / list - of - excuses - for - the -
pause -
in - global -
warming - is - now - up - to - 52 /).
Increasingly shrill and scary pronouncements
in the face of the
warming «
pause» (however you want to spin it or explain it) don't sound credible.
Mainly because we were concerned by the global media coverage which made it appear as if a coming
pause in global
warming was almost a given fact, rather than an experimental forecast.
«Now, an entirely new discussion is capturing the imagination, based on a group of scientists from Germany predicting a
pause in global
warming last week»
@» the lack of heating», the best comment was from a Royal Society spokesman
in 2007 around the time of the Keenlyside «AMOC shutdown» simulation... «global
warming could
pause... even for a decade».
«We've had a
pause in this so - called
warming for now 21 years, depends how you measure it, 21 years.
And then Joe goes on to point out that one possible explanation for the
pause is measurement — there's been a ton of
warming in the Arctic as if we are somehow hiding that fact when we talk about the
pause.
Explanations for the recent «
pause»
in SST
warming include La Niña - like cooling
in the eastern equatorial Pacific, strengthening of the Pacific trade winds, and tropical latent heat anomalies together with extratropical atmospheric teleconnections.
Our point was not to focus on 1998;
in fact,
in the longer version of our article that we sent to Nature we talk explicitly (and cite heavily) the work that has pinned the «
pause» to shifts
in El Nino / La Nina cycles and we also prominently mention the high latitude
warming.
I think that the idea of a
pause in the global
warming has been a red herring ever since it was suggested, and we have commented on this several times here on RC: On how data gaps
in some regions (eg.
Regarding the «
pause»
in surface
warming.
It isn't a
pause in global
warming trend (GT Warming) which you need more than 10 years (around 30 will do fine) but a drift from the trend (which CAN be seen in 10 years, if barely) that added to the trend which hasn't paused and gives an * appearance * of the climate (30 year) trend of having s
warming trend (GT
Warming) which you need more than 10 years (around 30 will do fine) but a drift from the trend (which CAN be seen in 10 years, if barely) that added to the trend which hasn't paused and gives an * appearance * of the climate (30 year) trend of having s
Warming) which you need more than 10 years (around 30 will do fine) but a drift from the trend (which CAN be seen
in 10 years, if barely) that added to the trend which hasn't
paused and gives an * appearance * of the climate (30 year) trend of having stopped.
But the
pause has persisted, sparking a minor crisis of confidence
in the field... On a chart of global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands
in stark contrast to the rapid
warming of the two decades that preceded it.
I think the interesting question raised (though not definitively answered) by this line of work is the extent to which some of the
pause in warming mid-century might have been more due to decadal ocean variability rather than aerosols than is commonly thought.
If that is the case, then a
pause or temporary reduction
in warming rate could recur even if aerosols are unchanged.
When ocean patterns had some scientists
in 2008 projecting a protected
pause in warming, I wrote a relevant piece entitled «Can Climate Campaigns Withstand a Cooling Test?»
Dr. Swanson: Another question — This prediction of a
pause in the
warming seems somewhat similar to the prediction of Keenlyside et al., although, as I understand it, theirs is based simply on a direct model prediction (with an attempt, whether successful or not, to use realistic initial conditions
in initializing their model).