Piper Jaffray analyst David Amsellem projects that Syndros will
reach peak annual sales of $ 300 million to $ 400 million.
The drug generated $ 172 million in revenue in the second quarter, according to Reuters, and was expected to
generate peak annual sales of about $ 2.3 billion.
The Summit, NJ, company has said that if approved, it could
hit peak annual sales of as much as $ 6 billion.
Given the early nature of Merck's experimental product, Citi currently forecasts heavily risk -
adjusted peak annual sales of $ 150 million for EFdA but it believes commercial success could add more than $ 5 billion to forecasts.
J&J hopes to expand its presence in the immunology market by launching new drugs like Tremfya, which could
reach peak annual sales of close to $ 1.6 billion.
Kite's stock is currently trading about 2X estimated
peak annual sales of $ 1.9 billion or 2.8 X the $ 1.4 billion peak annual sales estimate.
In Figure 1, we break down an estimate of
the peak annual sales revenues for a hypothetical biotech drug in a competitive market with a potential market size of 1 million patients, an estimated sales price of $ 20,000 per year and a royalty rate of 10 %.