In contrast, the much stronger 1974 period started at a price - to - peak earnings multiple of 7 (about 10 times 1972's
peak earnings level).
Not exact matches
And while the S&P 500's price compared to
earnings expectations is nearly 50 percent above the low
levels exhibited in the summer of 2011, valuations have fallen significantly below the July
peak.
Since that time, the market's P / E on «forward operating
earnings» has generally been substantially lower than the price /
peak earnings ratio based on the highest
level of trailing net
earnings to - date.
If we examine median price /
earnings ratios of different groups in the S&P 500 at the 2000 market
peak and at current
levels, we observe the following pattern:
The Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently suggested that
earnings growth may have
peaked in the first quarter, while Morgan Stanley calculated that expectations for stock returns were at their lowest
level since before the financial crisis.
Higgins adds that valuations were much more frothy: «Back [in the 90s], the price / 12m trailing operating
earnings ratio of the S&P 500 climbed to around 30 at its
peak, which was roughly double its
level in 1994.
While the current price /
peak -
earnings multiple is already at an elevated
level above 18, what I'll call the «P / E equivalent» multiples on other fundamentals are: 21 on the basis of book values, nearly 23 on the basis of enterprise value / EBITDA (which factors in the increasing share of debt on corporate balance sheets), over 25 on the basis of revenues, and 29 on the basis of dividends (largely because dividend payout ratios remain relatively low even on the basis of normalized
earnings).
The price /
peak -
earnings multiple is the ratio of the S&P 500 to the highest
level of
earnings attained to date, even if current
earnings on the index have declined below that
peak.
For example, since 1950, the S&P 500 has enjoyed total returns averaging 33.18 % annually during periods when the S&P 500 price /
peak earnings ratio was below 15 and both 3 - month T - bill yields and 10 - year Treasury yields were below their
levels of 6 months earlier.
The first is the very optimistic assumption that in the decade following each starting point, the price /
peak earnings multiple will move to a
level of 20 (the same
level seen in 1929 and other major extremes).
Those figures represent trough - to -
peak recoveries from depressed
levels, not sustainable
earnings trends that are appropriate for valuing stocks over the long - term.
On the subject of valuations, I believe that the
peak level of
earnings seen in the past market cycle was somewhat high, so I'd agree with Bill Gross at PIMCO in the sense that we're not likely to see that
level of
earnings as the «norm.»
For women,
earnings peak much earlier — around 40 — and then
level out.
Of course, none of this is to say a bear market can't occur, but overall, a healthy
earnings environment has kept valuations from approaching the
levels that marked the
peak back in 2000.
And
peak earnings make the assumption that index -
level profits will regain their previous highs.
Also, and I need to be more patient on this, a recessionary environment is actually «exciting» — if it goes on long enough, investors give up, mark down share prices to v reasonable
levels, and seem to completely forget what
peak (and possibly future)
earnings were — a potential multi-bagger situation.
Thanks to unusually high debt
levels and unusually low labor compensation in recent years, the
earnings peak in 2007 was based on profit margins that were about 50 % above the historical average, and which have now collapsed.
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