The Oil Drum, a website dedicated to peak oil news and discussion (if you don't know what «peak oil» is, you can read this primer), has a nice summary of arguments and analyses that tend to indicate that we are either on
the peak of oil production or very close to it.
Hence we have a world in denial about the impending
peak of oil production.
The point is this: As
the peak of oil production comes and goes, and as natural gas does the same sometime later, people are going to become ever more desperate in a fossil - fuel constrained world.
As
the peak of oil production is approached and passed, we must expect the price of oil and LPG to rise.
It has been particularly unfortunate for the U.S. that at the very time discussions of peak oil have turned serious, with
the peak of oil production now in sight (or maybe already behind us), we elected two oil men to run our nation.
Charles Hall, a professor at the State University of New York who researches energy and wealth, in graph after graph showed that almost every oil - producing country has reached
its peak of oil production.
The «peak oil» school, which has argued that we have passed
the peak of oil discovery and are now in permanent decline, has been proved wrong.
«You could have multiple
peaks of oiled birds.
Not exact matches
Andurand, who runs
oil hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP, wrote in a string
of tweets on Sunday that companies may be less willing to risk investment in long term
oil projects because
of low crude barrel prices and a predicted
peak in electric vehicle demand.
Transporting sand, drilling pipe, and crude
oil furnished only 4.5 %
of UP's volumes at the
peak in 2014.
At its
peak, in the spring
of 2012, light
oil at Edmonton was trading at a discount
of almost $ CDN 40 per barrel to Brent prices, and at a discount
of almost $ CDN 20 / barrel to U.S. mid-continent prices.
It has concluded that
oil demand is likely to
peak sometime between the late 2020s and the late 2040s because
of an epic shift underway in the energy industry: a transition from petroleum to electricity.
Internal studies by a group
of analysts within Shell known as the «scenarios» team had concluded that global demand for
oil might
peak in as little as a decade — essentially tomorrow in an industry that plans in quarter - century increments.
The acceptance
of the notion that global
oil demand will
peak within a generation is mind - blowing given that, just a decade ago, the chatter in the energy world was about a coming
peak in
oil supply.
When the
oil - demand
peak came, Shell believed, petroleum prices might begin a slow slide, dipping too low to cover the costs
of oil - sands production.
The International Energy Agency, which says that global
oil demand could
peak around 2020 if governments adopted particularly green policies, predicts that even if it happened,
oil still would account for 23 %
of total global energy in 2040, down from 32 % in 2016.
The new Vito is right - sized, the Shell team hopes, for a world
of peaking oil demand.
With other parts
of the world already in turmoil, fallout from Syria could upend the dynamic, as the
peak summer season for
oil demand approaches, keeping
oil prices in a new, elevated range.
A survey conducted recently by COMPAS Inc. found a majority
of Canadian CEOs polled subscribe to
peak -
oil theory — the idea that the planet is running out
of easily accessible and economical
oil — but believe it is difficult to predict when
peak production will occur.
Neither cut was a particular surprise: Buffett had previously said he erred in buying Conoco at a
peak price for
oil (though now,
of course, the commodity's rising price is putting a different cast on the investment) and he had publicly protested Kraft's 2010 purchase
of Cadbury, which he thought not in the interests
of Kraft's shareholders.
This billionaire inrnthe
oil and gas businessrnsaw his pilernshrink somewhat this year withrnthe declining share price
of CanadianrnNatural Resources, the firmrnhe shepherded to the
peak ofrnthe country's energy market.rnEdwards, who is also the ownerrnof the Calgary Flames, has hadrnother issues on his mind, however — this fall he has been anrninfluential player in the NHLrnlockout negotiations.
Thiel's
peak -
oil thesis did well by Clarium until mid-2008, as the price
of oil soared from about $ 40 a barrel in 2002 to nearly $ 140.
The price drop is an unexpected turn
of events for an industry that for decades has operated under the assumption
of Peak Oil — geophysicist M. King Hubbert's theory, first proposed in 1956, that the United States» then soaring oil production would peak and begin to decline around 1
Peak Oil — geophysicist M. King Hubbert's theory, first proposed in 1956, that the United States» then soaring oil production would peak and begin to decline around 19
Oil — geophysicist M. King Hubbert's theory, first proposed in 1956, that the United States» then soaring
oil production would peak and begin to decline around 19
oil production would
peak and begin to decline around 1
peak and begin to decline around 1970.
And unlike with the
oil industry, no «fracking» method has been invented yet to extract gold from hard - to - reach areas, though Barrick — the world's largest producer by output — has been experimenting with sensors at its Cortez project in Nevada.What Pierre is talking about,
of course, is the idea
of «
peak gold.»
The alleged news about the «Death
of Peak Oil» were grossly overestimated -
Peak Oil remains the reality
of yesterday, today and tomorrow.
My question is this... How does this affect
peak oil (or, as I like to call it, the end
of the Industrial Age)?
It was driven by growing Chinese and other Far East demand and by dwindling
oil supplies following the
peak of conventional production in 2005.
Oil prices must inevitably rise as unconventional production peaks over the next decade and oil - exporting countries increasingly consume more of their own o
Oil prices must inevitably rise as unconventional production
peaks over the next decade and
oil - exporting countries increasingly consume more of their own o
oil - exporting countries increasingly consume more
of their own
oiloil.
OPEC hopes to stimulate demand through low
oil prices back to the
peak levels that existed before the price shocks
of the 1970s and 1980s.
High
oil prices in 2007 and 2008 were due to a large and persistent production supply deficit because
of high demand from China and the Far East, and dwindling supplies following the
peak of conventional
oil production in 2005 (Figures 15 and 17).
What's more, analysts with Bank
of America Merrill Lynch believe that
oil demand will
peak sometime after 2050, «as long as we remain in a relatively low
oil price environment
of $ 55 - 75 per barrel in real terms.»
But
oil is still far cheaper than at the
peak of the previous eight - year boom that began in 2006 North Dakota's Bakken
oil patch and supercharged the city
of Williston.
However the EIA's own Drilling Productivity Report has shale
oil, the source
of almost all US production gains,
peaking in April with an increasing decline in May, June and July.
Before founding K2, he was with American Capital Ltd., a publicly - traded buyout and mezzanine fund (NASDAQ: ACAS), where he created the American Capital Energy Group, building a
peak portfolio
of nearly a billion dollars
of market value
of energy - related equity and debt investments across
oil and gas production, oilfield services, utility services and alternative energy.
It's worth noting that also leaves Saudi exports
of crude
oil significantly below their recent
peak.
So the sharp fall in
oil prices has certainly been disruptive, but stabilization from distressed trough levels should be good for economic growth even if the price
of oil doesn't rebound back to
peak levels
of above $ 100 a barrel in 2014.
Since 1999, the price
of West Texas Intermediate — one
of the price benchmarks for
oil used today in the market — has jumped by nearly 700 %, reaching a
peak of $ 147 in 2008.
The new calendar year has witnessed a sharp improve in revenue downgrades from
oil and fuel firms, which have been strike by the cost
of Brent crude a lot more than halving from its
peak of $ 115 a barrel in June.
Russia's economy grew at 7.2 % per year from 2000 to the
peak of the global financial crisis in 2009, fueled by huge
oil and gas revenues.
According to Bank
of America Merrill Lynch, an extended period
of low
oil prices could mark the
peak of the Gulf macro story.
The Conference Board report also predicts direct employment at
oil producers «will expand by just 2,150 net new positions» over the next four years, when it will reach «66,470 jobs, which is still below the 2015
peak»
of 72,600 jobs.
Instead
of the world on a collision course
of fighting over the last drop
of oil, now it seems that we have turned the world upside down and now we are seeing predictions that
oil demand will
peak.
Peak oil is a real threat to a huge segment
of the energy industry.
Having
peaked ahead
of the Iraq war and fallen sharply following its commencement, the price
of West Texas Intermediate crude
oil has since risen again, amidst uncertainty about the resumption and continuity
of Iraqi export supply.
In 1906, the year
of a
peak that was not exceeded for ten years, President Theodore Roosevelt filed his famous suit against the country's largest company, Standard
Oil.
If you haven't heard
of «
peak oil» before, you'll be hearing a lot more about it in the coming years, because it's here.
European
oil demand
peaked more than 20 years ago and has fallen in each
of the last five years.
Nonetheless, vehicle sales keep failing to rise through their previous cyclical
peaks, in spite
of rising employment, record low financing costs and low
oil prices (charts from CalculatedRisk)
This recent global
oil price drop is mostly due to slacking demand and the coincidence of U.S. shale output, not some infinite supply of tight oil that disproves the whole Peak Oil phenomen
oil price drop is mostly due to slacking demand and the coincidence
of U.S. shale output, not some infinite supply
of tight
oil that disproves the whole Peak Oil phenomen
oil that disproves the whole
Peak Oil phenomen
Oil phenomenon.
Chris Martenson, economic researcher, trend forecaster, The Crash Course author, and founder
of Peak Prosperity, discusses the eight forms
of capital you need to become resilient to crisis, how the financial system scams hapless investors, and why gold will get much more valuable once the next
oil crisis hits.