We have plotted most likely peak temperatures as a function of four different cumulative emission metrics: year 1750 — 2500 (figure 3a), year 1750 to the time at which
peak warming occurs (figure 3b), year 1750 — 2100 (figure 3c) and year 1750 — 2200 (figure 3d).
Not exact matches
Previous estimates suggested that
peak temperatures during the
warmest interglacial periods — which
occurred at around 125,000, 240,000 and 340,000 years ago — were about three degrees higher than they are today.
«Accidents most frequently
occurred when no parental supervision was present from the time of school dismissal until the early evening hours, and were most often located mid-block,» said orthopaedic surgery resident and lead study author Alexa J. Karkenny, MD. «Injuries
peaked during the
warm months and clustered both near schools and bus stops located near schools.
The
peak upper level
warming that
occurs as optical thickness in a «new» band is increased should be larger for a wider band, as it can gain greater dominance over controlling the temperature profile at smaller optical thickness and will have a greater
peak in it's influence.
The other thing we need to be aware of is the cause of the temperature
peak that
occurred prior to the eruption of Novarupta, because THAT is the source of the initial
warm - up we see after 1910, NOT the absence of aerosols from a volcano that had not yet erupted.
Conditions like this
occurred at the
peaks of every
warm period in the past ten thousand years.
@ - Herman Alexander Pope» Conditions like this
occurred at the
peaks of every
warm period in the past ten thousand years.
QUESTION: If this hypothetical +0.03 C per decade trend line for the seven hottest
peak years on record between 1998 and 2028 stayed within the CMIP5 min - max boundary line, as shown on the above graphic, could climate scientists justifiably claim in the year 2028 that «global
warming» a.k.a. «climate change» had
occurred on schedule according to AR5's climate model predictions?
more than 0.4 °C cooler than the
warmest February, which
occurred in 2016 at the
peak of the recent
warm period.
This
occurs because the cumulative totals include contributions for portions of the emissions floor that are emitted after the time of
peak warming, which can have no effect on
peak warming, as illustrated by the green curves in figure 1.
The correlation is almost as strong if cumulative emissions out to 2500 are considered (shown in black squares in figure 3a) because the vast majority of the emissions in these zero emissions floor pathways have
occurred by the time of
peak warming.
Based on the metrics presented in figure 2, we conclude that, for cases with no emissions floor, the strongest correlation across all pathways
occurs between
peak warming and the cumulative emissions from pre-industrial times to the time of that
peak warming, as shown in figure 2a.
From a 10 - year average global temperature low, established during November 1976, the modern
warming period spanned 410 months, ending during December 2010 when the 10 - year average
peak occurred.
As the climate of the Pacific Northwest
warms, more winter precipitation is falling as rain, compared with historical averages.2 With declining snowpack in Oregon's Cascade Mountains,
peak stream flows are
occurring earlier, and summer flows are declining.2 These changes are expected to continue as heat - trapping emissions grow, putting more stress on already endangered salmon that return to the Columbia and other rivers in the region to spawn.2
A second set of
warm pulses was detected at Fram Strait in 2004 were a little
warmer, but followed the same trajectory as in 1990 so that
peak warming in the Eurasian Basin
occurred in about 2007.
As a result, the
peaks in California's snow melt and surface runoff are likely to be more pronounced and to
occur earlier in the calendar year, increasing the duration of the
warm - season low - runoff period and potentially reducing surface soil moisture.
«Some of the heat spreads into the Northern Hemisphere tropics, and since
warmer ocean waters are where the heaviest rains
occur, precipitation
peaks in the Northern Hemisphere.»
As I have stated publicly on many occasions, there is no definitive scientific proof, through real - world observation, that carbon dioxide is responsible for any of the slight
warming of the global climate that has
occurred during the past 300 years, since the
peak of the Little Ice Age.
However, as shown in Fig. 4.5 of the above referenced report, if continued natural
warming from the 1000 year cycle is still
occurring and would be expected to
peak about 2100, then most of the
warming since 1950 would have to be attributed to natural occurrences and the IPCC AR5 claim would be FALSE.
California's record
warmest year
occurs at the
peak of a sustained, long - term
warming trend in the state over the past century or so — the same period over which the Earth's global mean temperature has risen by 1.5 ° F.
The
peak forcing in the Eemian was over 66 W / m2 greater than today (and it
occurred in the middle of the interglacial) so the statement that the Eemian was only 1 °C
warmer is just silly.
Consider these two «consensus» points that Lomborg completely omits: «It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone
peak wind - speed and rainfall will
occur if the climate continues to
warm.