Besides showing the cumulative CO2 growth, this chart depicts the plots (pinkish circles sans the connecting curve lines) of the 12 - month, 24 - month, and 36 - month rolling
per century warming acceleration trends
=== > that's equal to a 96 °C
per century warming trend if NASA continues with a pattern of similar «corrections.»
Yet, as this charts reveals,
the per century warming trends are remarkably similar with the fastest warming acceleration happening in the earlier period.
The Super El Niño of 1997 - 1998 caused a huge spike in global temperatures that was only temporary in nature, but long enough to impact the entire decade's
per century warming rate.
Per the IPCC's gold - standard of global temperature measurements, since the late 1800s, the highest
per century warming trend achieved occurred during the 42 - year period ending in 1949.
The warming since records began consists of 1/2 ° C
per century warming superimposed on a 60 year ocean cycle.
Using the UK's HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset and NOAA's datasets for CO2, one can plot
the per century warming / cooling trends on a monthly basis going back to 1850.
Not exact matches
From AD 1300 to 1600, wildfires ignited during late summer, with about 5 - 10 ignitions
per quarter
century, generally occurring during
warm, dry summers.
«Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 C mean surface
warming per century due to land - use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone7, 8.»
It has been estimated that to have at least a 50
per cent chance of keeping
warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty - first
century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2).
Pages 12 - 13 ignore all this and instead use «a constant - rate
warming» of 1.8 degrees C
per century «based on actual observations.»
Warming and cooling rates range from 0.01 to > 3.0 degrees
per century.
This calculates into
warming rates of 0.5 degrees C to 0.7 degrees C
per century.
With
warming rates of 0.5 to over 1.3 degrees C
per century this has caused considerable alarm for many.
A smaller ice sheet extent might still respond with the observed high rate of sea level rise (5 m
per century) if the
warming is much more rapid than when ice sheets were more extensive.
Correction, my post # 5 should read 2 degrees Centigrade of
warming per century instead of
per decade.
I would bet that the IPCC prediction for the first three decades of this
century as I understand it (0.2 degrees
per decade) overstates the amount of global
warming we will actually experience.
The current rate (over the last 2 years) is about 1 m
per century and we still have a lot more
warming to cause in a BAU scenario.
Even if poor and rich countries agree, magically, to meet in the middle — at, say, 10 tons of carbon dioxide
per person
per year (about Europe's emissions rate)-- that produces a world well on the way to
centuries of
warming and coastal retreats, even at the low end of estimates of carbon dioxide's heat - trapping power.
It does show that positive feedbacks are dominant, and for timescales of anthropogenic global
warming about 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius
per doubling, and a bit higher if you include
century - timescale «slower feedbacks» such as ice sheets.
«A significant share of the
warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th
Century was due to these cycles â $ «perhaps as much as 50
per cent.
And the GISS record says we've
warmed by 0.48 Â °
per century.
The Jones record says weâ $ ™ ve
warmed by 0.64 Â °
per century.
Despite an approximate 35 % monthly increase in human CO2 emissions subsequent to the Super El Niño, the global
warming trend decelerated to a
per century trend some 50 % less than that prior to the El Niño event.
More specifically, there was slow global
warming, with large fluctuations, over the
century up to 1975 and subsequent rapid
warming of almost 0.2 Â °C
per decade.»
The Jones record says we've
warmed by 0.64 Â °
per century.
More specifically, there was slow global
warming, with large fluctuations, over the
century up to 1975 and subsequent rapid
warming of almost 0.2 Â °C
per decade.â $?
Since 1880, the GHCN record says we've
warmed by 0.76 Â °
per century.
Even if CO2 causes 1.5 C
per doubling (and that's a low estimate), and you double CO2, you are going to get 1.5 C
warming — twice the
warming seen in the 20th
century.
China's «FGOALS - g2 ″ appears to be the best performer at replicating regional trends, but still over / under - predicts the
warming trend by about 0.5 C
per century almost everywhere.»
I am no longer a «believer» in human caused global
warming, there is simply no evidece for more than a small fraction of one degree C
per century — and without that and the fertilisation effect of the increased CO2 that we are enjoying, the human race would starve.
As a result, the current
warming rate is only 0.8 deg C
per century and not 2 deg C
per century.
Did IPCC project
warming of 0.2 C
per decade (AR4) and previously 0.225 C, (i.e. 0.15 to 0.3 C)
per decade (TAR) for first decades of 21st
century?
For policy - makers, the speed of climate change over the coming decades matters as much as the total long - term change, since this rate of change will determine whether human societies and natural ecosystems will be able to adapt fast enough to survive.New results indicate a
warming rate of about 2.5 C
per century over the coming decades (assuming no attempt is made to reduce GHG emissions).
The
warming rate coming out of the last ice age was about a degree
per millennium and sea level rose about 2m
per century.
If it were not for thermometers, nobody would even notice a
warming of 1 °
per century, we don't live long enough.
No one knows what it will do for the next 15 years, although it would seem likely that the long - term
warming since 1850 of around 06 - 0.7 C
per century would resume.
Temperatures rocketed to 0.27 C above the 1981 - 2010 average, 0.63 C above the 20th
Century average and showed a severe pace of
warming of 0.70 C
per Century.
Adjusting richardbriscoe's sentence for this
warming bias: ``... the man - made element would appear to be only about 0.0 ° C
per century.
These happen during
warming periods as glaciers melt and can lead to sea - level rise rates of 4 m
per century.
Let us assume that Hadcrut4 and Hadcrut3 exhibit a similar
warming bias, about 0.07 C
per decade or 0.7 C
per century.
Overall there has been a fairly steady
warming trend of 0.5 °C
per century since 1680, which is when that notorious playboy Charles II of England began racing his Ferrari at Silverstone.»
The IPCC AR4 «projected» that it is «very unlikely» that
warming would be less than 1.1 deg.C over the coming
century, and said it is «very likely» that the rate of
warming would be «2 deg.C
per decade».
In 2007 IPCC used greenhouse
warming theory to predict that
warming in the twenty - first
century shall proceed at the rate of 0.2 degrees Celsius
per decade.
In 2007 IPCC predicted from the greenhouse theory that global
warming in the twenty - first
century shall proceed at the rate of 0.2 degrees
per decade.
Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science say incorporating observational data of «Earth's top - of - atmosphere energy budget» shows the «
warming projection for the end of the twenty - first
century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15
per cent
warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius)... relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»
IPCC computer models dating from 1990 through the present have consistently predicted at least 2.4 degrees of global
warming per century.
Accordingly, global
warming has occurred at a pace of approximately 1 degree Celsius
per century over the duration of the satellite record.
By the end of the
century with extreme
warming, it could hit 10 millimeters (or 1 centimeter)
per year, or even higher.
The IPCC says scientists are now 95
per cent certain that the buildup of such gases from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation is the main cause of
warming seen since the middle of the 20th
century.