And so are the Tide's chances against either of two potential East champions: Georgia (the Dawgs have about a 78 percent chance of winning the East, and Alabama would have a 71 percent chance of beating them) or Missouri (Mizzou has a 22 percent chance of winning the East, and Alabama would have a 93
percent chance of winning that game).
According to one model, the Buckeyes had just a 2.7 -
percent chance of winning the game with barely over seven minutes left.
Not exact matches
Odds
of reaching the postseason 4.7
percent, which sounds low until you remember that they were down to a 2.9 -
percent chance of winning the Wild Card
Game in 2014 and a 1.6 -
percent chance of coming back to
win Game 5
of the ALDS in 2015.
Illinois is given between a 34 and 66
percent chance of winning in six
games; that means that if the Illini come in a little bit below their No. 76 S&P + projection, they could end up in the 2 - 10 range.
That means that, despite only a No. 90 S&P + projection, they are favored in six
games and have at least a 35
percent chance of winning in nine.
The Dortmund
game showed clearly why we are no hopers with a zero
percent chance of winning the Champions League, if we can't beat Dortmund can we beat Bayern, Madrid or Barca??
S&P + gives CMU a better than 56
percent chance of winning in just one
game (Maine), but six
games are within a range
of 37
percent and 56
percent.
S&P + projects the Pirates 125th and gives them a better than 26
percent chance of winning in just three
games.
In the ALDS this year, the Royals were down to less than a 2
percent chance of winning the must -
win Game 4.
Even with a pessimistic S&P +, the Hawkeyes are given between a 39 and 56
percent chance of winning in five
games, with four likely
wins and three likely losses.
Because
of the title
game, OU's odds
of finishing with one loss drop from 66
percent to about 36
percent because they have only about a 55
percent chance of winning said
game.
But a battle against likely West champion Wisconsin is looking tougher and tougher, and Ohio State's
chances of winning the Big Ten title
game are only currently around 73
percent.
(One last thing: Alabama is the No. 1 team in the country and now has a lower - than - 50
percent chance of winning two particular
games.
Thanks to home
games against Georgia and Arkansas, the Tigers have a better than 50
percent chance of winning each remaining home
game.
Their postgame
win expectancy, based on a
game's key stats, was 82
percent against ECU and 64
percent against BC, meaning there was only about a 6
percent chance of losing both (and a 52
percent chance of winning both).
Even a team with a 95
percent win probability in every
game only has a little better than a 50 %
chance of winning 12 out
of 12.
Even in a brutal SEC West, the Rebels are given a 37
percent chance of winning 10 or more
games (and, yes, a 10
percent chance of going 7 - 5 or worse).
Aside from the trip to Miami on September 23, they are given at least a 68
percent chance of winning each
of their other 11
games.
Heading into Week 4, teams given a 50 - 70
percent chance of winning a given
game were
winning 59
percent of the time, while teams given better than 70
percent chances were
winning 90
percent of the time.
Combine the general nature
of odds with the fact that F / + projections have been even more conservative (with 70
percent chances playing out like 80
percent chances, et al, so far), and you get the Big Ten's three superior teams (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin) projected to
win just 17.6
of 24 combined
games.
Still, even factoring in an SEC title
game battle versus either Georgia or South Carolina, it appears «Bama's
chances of winning each
game following LSU are at least 90
percent.
Ignacio Palacios - Huerta, a professor
of game theory, calculates that «the first team begins with a 60.2
percent chance of winning.»
S&P + gives Vandy between a 35 and 65
percent chance of winning in six
of 12
games.
The
game first presented the subjects pictures
of arbitrary Japanese characters that would have different probabilities
of rewards if chosen ranging from a 20
percent to 80
percent chance of winning a point or losing a point.