Maps show projected
percent change in precipitation in each season for 2071 - 2099 (compared to the period 1970 - 1999) under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (A2).
Quantitation is one of the elements Trenberth discusses in the piece I quoted (e.g.,
a percent change in precipitation), and is relevant in that some of this thread had assumed that Trenberth was proposing a new null hypothesis with no quantitative aspects.
Not exact matches
The Nordic region relies on hydroelectric power for more than 50
percent of its power generation, and
change in precipitation is an important factor
in setting prices.
Under various climate and land - use scenarios, coniferous stands are expected to lose 71
percent to 100
percent of their current range to deciduous stands across New England by 2085, particularly
in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, due to increased temperature and
precipitation and
changes in timber harvesting.
ACPI assumes a 1
percent annual increase
in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through the year 2100, for little
change in precipitation and an average temperature increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade at least through the middle of 21st century.
A model by the Purdue Climate
Change Research Center
in West Lafayette forecasts, by 2050, the full growing seasons will expand by one month; there will be 33 to 45 more days with temperatures above 90 degrees; an increase
in precipitation between 14
percent and 22
percent; and 24 days to 36 days less snow cover.
By looking at the signatures of climate
change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense
precipitation on any given day has increased by 7
percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.
Our interactions with climate, for far more than 99
percent of history, ran
in one direction:
Precipitation or temperatures
changed, ice sheets or coastlines or deserts advanced or retreated, and communities thrived, suffered, or adjusted how or where they lived.
Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1 percent of events) from 1958 to 2012 show a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy
Percent changes in the amount of
precipitation falling
in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1
percent of events) from 1958 to 2012 show a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy
percent of events) from 1958 to 2012 show a clear national trend toward a greater amount of
precipitation being concentrated
in very heavy events.
On average
in the United States, the amount of rain falling during the heaviest 1
percent of rainstorms has increased nearly 20
percent during the past 50 years — almost three times the rate of increase
in total
precipitation.4, 5 The Midwest saw an even larger average increase of 31
percent, surpassed only by the Northeast (at 67
percent).4 Scientists attribute the rise
in heavy
precipitation to climate
change that has already occurred over the past half - century.6
Leaf area index, which is also enhanced by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, was the second most important factor, contributing an additional 21.8
percent, followed by climate
change (
precipitation and air temperature together) and the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, which accounted for the remaining 18.3 and 14.6
percent increase
in NPP, respectively.
Between 1958 and 2007, New England saw a 67
percent increase
in heavy
precipitation events and the Midwest experienced a 31
percent increase, according to the 2009 federal report «Global Climate
Change Impacts
in the United States.»
A sentence
in Chapter 13 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability states: «Up to 40
percent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction
in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system
in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation.»
Percent changes in the amount of
precipitation falling
in very heavy events (the heaviest 1 %) from 1958 to 2012 for each region.
Relative
changes in precipitation (
in percent) for the period 2090 — 2099, relative to 1980 — 1999.
Other factors for the observed 7
percent increase
in runoff from 1936 to 1999 could be
changes in ice and permafrost melt or
changes in the seasonality of
precipitation and runoff, he said.
''... report that «most trends exhibited no clear
precipitation change,» noting that «global
changes in precipitation over the Earth's land mass excluding Antarctica relative to 1961 - 90 were estimated to be: -1.2 ± 1.7, 2.6 ± 2.5 and -5.4 ± 8.1
percent per century for the periods 1850 - 2000, 1900 - 2000 and 1950 - 2000, respectively.»
Gavin said upfront: «By looking at the signatures of climate
change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense
precipitation on any given day has increased by 7
percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability».
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's June 2008 report «Climate
Change and Water»
precipitation will very likely, which the IPCC defines as more than a 90
percent probability, increase
in tropical and high - latitude regions and will likely (more than 66
percent probability) decrease
in subtropical and low - to mid-latitude regions.