Translation: The less public support a team gets, the better
they perform against the spread.
The table below shows seven teams that received more than 70 % of spread bets in Week 3 and how well
they performed Against the Spread (ATS).
Or, in other words, we examined how teams
performed against the spread (ATS) when «expected» to be better than their opponents.
I then analyzed favorites at the -3 and -7 point - spread levels to see how teams
perform against the spread (ATS) as they get better (or are expected to be better) than their opponents.
The table below shows the five teams that received less than 30 % of spread bets in Week 5 and how well
they performed against the spread.
Not exact matches
Which NBA superstar has
performed better
Against the
Spread throughout the playoffs?
Multiple metrics that
perform favorably
against Vegas
spreads had UCF as a top - 10 team almost two months before the Peach Bowl, and yet the committee parked the undefeated Knights at No. 18 behind eight two - loss teams and then at No. 15 behind a three - loss team.
With high - profile coaching changes at USC, Washington and Boise State this season, we looked back in our database of sports betting information to examine how teams historically
perform ATS (
against the
spread) with new coaches in bowl games.
That's not even necessarily a bad thing, seeing as ranked teams
perform better
against the
spread early in the season than at any other point.
At this point in the year, the best
performing teams ATS (
Against The
Spread) can be viewed as «overachievers» since they're continually
performing well regardless of the line that sportsbooks are posting.
Although these leans only went 1 - 2
against the
spread (ATS), many of the featured betting systems
performed very well.
Although their replacements have
performed better
against the
spread, they have still struggled with an 851 - 951 ATS (47.22 %) record.
While the betting public historically does not
perform well ATS (
against the
spread) in the NFL, this season has been historically bad for bettors consistently backing popular teams.
When executing analysis like this, we always prefer using
against the
spread (ATS) records as a measure of how a team, or player in this instance,
performs because point
spreads include a level of «expectation» that straight - up wins and losses do not.
Our latest hypothesis is simple and reminiscent of our Week 6 system: Bettors overreact to teams that have
performed poorly
against the
spread.
Teams coming off a blowout
against a top 10 ranked team have
performed well
against the
spread after their beatdown.
He has Washington in contention for the College Football Playoff and is a big favorite in Week 5
against Cal but his teams
perform much better
against - the -
spread on the road than at home.