My conclusions and advice Investment advisors are human, and
performance chasing in investing is a human characteristic.
Morningstar's study on investor returns (hat tip to The Stingy Investor) confirms once again what other studies, such as DALBAR's Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, have consistently shown: investors are hurt
by performance chasing and market timing.
Ben Carlson at A Wealth of Common Sense highlights a recent example of extreme
performance chasing on the part of investors into a fund whose strategy that most investors likely don't understand.
In this Opalesque.TV BACKSTAGE video, Steve explains
how performance chasing leads to «crowding» and eventually to «explosive unwinding».
In a world in which, after inflation, even an average long - term return of 4 % annually might be hard to achieve, your
own performance chasing could take a bigger bite out of your returns than anything else.
But if you look at new cash coming into mutual funds — in taxable and tax - deferred accounts — you can clearly
see performance chasing, as investors try to hop aboard whatever has been hot recently.
A fascinating study in The Review of Financial Studies showed that financial professionals tended to
performance chase at about the same levels as consumers investing directly.
the popularity of currency hedging in the past 10 years simply
reflects performance chasing of the currency — there is nothing «passive» about this — it is active management, but at its worst
The Danger of
Performance Chasing Many investors routinely fire recently underperforming managers and hire recently outperforming managers.
Harvey and Liu (2017) demonstrate there is no repeatability in performance, which
makes performance chasing in manager selection largely futile.
This finding implies that investors who follow the common practice of firing underperforming managers and replacing them with recently outperforming managers tend to lose from
such performance chasing.
I have to agree that there is an element of
performance chasing in investors wanting currency hedging with the bulk of the negative move probably already behind us.
Studies such as those by DALBAR has consistently shown that investor returns have been much less than market returns because
of performance chasing, expenses, turnover and taxes.
Goldberg said there will always be
performance chasing, and a policy mistake by any of the big four central banks — the Fed, Bank of Japan, ECB, and BOC — could be the biggest risk to investors.
Performance chasing is as old as the hills and it tends to amplify things at the extremes.
That's when the insanity of
the performance chase and second guessing begins.
The second point is merely observing that
performance chasing is alive and well.
Performance chasing should not be due to myopia, irrational loss aversion, or other psychological biases.
But things almost always end badly for
those performance chasing investors.
Often succumbing to short term strategies such as market timing or
performance chasing, many investors can not exercise the necessary discipline to capture the benefits markets can provide over longer time horizons.»
One of the biggest unforced errors investors make is
performance chasing.
Of course, you wouldn't have called
it performance chasing — that's something other people do.
Problem is, while this sounds wise, it's little more than
performance chasing.
Almost always it's based on a combination of fear and
performance chasing.
Mutual funds, which get priced once daily, are traded excessively by
some performance chasing investors, but the amount of these trades is no where near the volume for ETFs.
Investors who wish to diversify away from past disappointment are, of course, welcome to do so — in reality, however, they are engaged in
performance chasing and the desired diversification benefits may be illusory!
profitable, and
performance chasing, which is arguably the most damaging error in the world of investing.
I personally don't do hedge because doing so now reeks of
performance chasing, IMO.
The widespread promotion by the quant community of products based on past performance — often backtests and simulations — has contributed, and still does contribute, to investors» costly bad habit of
performance chasing.
Vanguard's Kinniry cautions, however, that a blended benchmark can be distracting and lead to
performance chasing.
Putting It All Together In the brave new «smart beta» world, with the rapid proliferation of factor tilts and quant strategies, investors should be vigilant to the pitfalls of data mining and
performance chasing.
He thinks they are undermining the buy - and - hold principle of sound investing by tempting the little guy into ill - timed «
performance chasing».
This is called «
performance chasing» or «strategy hopping,» which results in buying high (moving into what has been working well recently) and selling low (moving out of what is not working well)-- not a recipe for success.
This kind of
performance chasing & lack of diversification is almost guaranteed to yield inferior returns — even if you can match the longer term return of a more diversified portfolio, you'll still suffer far more painful levels of volatility.
Studies such as DALBAR (see post Investors Behaving Badly) consistently show that investors underperform their investments due to
performance chasing.
Other reasons, in addition to
performance chasing, may account for fund investors» timing decisions, but the authors» purpose is not to seek an exact explanation.
Once you are cured of
any performance chasing and superior performance delusions, then we can start working together on the things that you actually can change and plan for.