The second is a short - term
period of warmer surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (called an El Niño).
You can have a long period of cold air at the surface with little turbulent mixing and little energy transfer, followed by a short
period of a warm surface and lots of turbulence and energy transfer - ending with a time average of warm over cold, but a time average of upward energy transfer.
Not exact matches
Scientists define them as
periods when the sea
surface in a given area
of the ocean gets unusually
warm for at least five days in a row.
Analyzing data collected over a 20 - month
period, scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight center in Greenbelt, Md., and the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology found that the number
of cirrus clouds above the Pacific Ocean declines with
warmer sea
surface temperatures.
The deceleration in rising temperatures during this 15 - year
period is sometimes referred to as a «pause» or «hiatus» in global
warming, and has raised questions about why the rate
of surface warming on Earth has been markedly slower than in previous decades.
Experiments carried out in the OU Mars Simulation Chamber — specialised equipment, which is able to simulate the atmospheric conditions on Mars — reveal that Mars» thin atmosphere (about 7 mbar — compared to 1,000 mbar on Earth) combined with
periods of relatively
warm surface temperatures causes water flowing on the
surface to violently boil.
This is a marine crocodilian, here a dyrosaurid, swimming in the
warm surface waters during the end
of the Cretaceous
period.
It refers to a
period of slower
surface warming in the wake
of the 1997 - 98 super El Niño compared to the previous decades.
If this rapid
warming continues, it could mean the end
of the so - called slowdown — the
period over the past decade or so when global
surface temperatures increased less rapidly than before.
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half
of 2013, the January — June global temperature across land and ocean
surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh
warmest such
period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century average.
Bacteria, however, have remained Earth's most successful form
of life — found miles deep below as well as within and on
surface rock, within and beneath the oceans and polar ice, floating in the air, and within as well as on Homo sapiens sapiens; and some Arctic thermophiles apparently even have life - cycle hibernation
periods of up to a 100 million years while waiting for
warmer conditions underneath increasing layers
of sea sediments (Lewis Dartnell, New Scientist, September 20, 2010; and Hubert et al, 2010).
Both are slightly positive since 1850, and account for approximately 0.2 °C
of the observed 0.8 °C
surface warming over that
period.
These so - called «modest hyperthermals» (meaning a rapid, pronounced
period of global
warming) had shorter durations and recoveries (about a 40,000 year cycle) and involved an exchange
of carbon between
surface reservoirs into the atmosphere and then into sediment.
Today, researchers use the term El Niño only for those
periods when the
surface water around the equator in the eastern and central Pacific
warms for an extended
period of time.
Beginning in the mid-1970s, the equatorial Pacific Ocean began a
period of warmer than normal sea -
surface temperatures.
Large - scale
surface temperature reconstructions yield a generally consistent picture
of temperature trends during the preceding millennium, including relatively
warm conditions centered around A.D. 1000 (identified by some as the «Medieval Warm Period») and a relatively cold period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around 1
warm conditions centered around A.D. 1000 (identified by some as the «Medieval
Warm Period») and a relatively cold period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around 1
Warm Period») and a relatively cold period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around
Period») and a relatively cold
period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around
period (or «Little Ice Age») centered around 1700.
This animation shows how the same temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long - term global
surface air
warming trend
of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time
periods that show a cooling trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the trend is dominated by short - term noise in the data (blue steps).
They suggest this «pause» in the acceleration
of carbon dioxide concentrations was, in part, due to the effect
of the temporary slowdown in global average
surface warming during that same
period on respiration, the process by which plants and soils release CO2.
The main point is that just as
surface temperatures has experienced
periods of short term cooling during long term global
warming, similarly the ocean shows short term variability during a long term
warming trend.
Only 250 million years after life reached the earth's
surface emerged, the first
warm - blooded animals appeared, as for example the dinosaurs
of the Jurassic
period, that disappeared 66 million years ago due to a supposed asteroid impact on Earth.
A proper
warm - up
period is 5 to 15 minutes
of light walking or trotting on a
surface similar to the event
surface.
The gestation
period is about 13.5 months and the calf is born head first (unusual for cetaceans) and near the
surface of the
warm, shallow waters.
-- The combined global land and ocean average
surface temperature for the December — February
period was 0.41 °C (0.74 °F) above the 20th century average
of 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), making it the 17th
warmest such
period on record and the coolest December — February since 2008.
Item 8 could be confusing in having so many messages: «It is extremely likely that more than half
of the observed increase in global average
surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas... The best estimate
of the human - induced contribution to
warming is similar to the observed
warming over this
period....
These results suggest that sea
surface temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the
period of reduced
warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation
of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low 4.
Our results support previous findings
of a reduced rate
of surface warming over the 2001 — 2014
period — a
period in which anthropogenic forcing increased at a relatively constant rate.»
The paleoclimate record (8.2 kyr, and earlier «large lake collapses») shows a dramatic drop in
surface temperatures for a substantial
period of time when the ocean circulation shuts off or changes, but is that actually what would be expected under these
warming conditions?
«We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce
periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged
surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence
of longer - term
warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a
period to reinforce a point
of view.»
The 2007 IPCC report highlights
surface temperature projections for the
period 2090 - 2099 under a business - as - ususal scenario that reveals +5 °C to +7 °C
warming warming of annually average temperatures over much
of Eurasia under an aggressive A2 scenario.
But this is in a
period that the Bureau has predicted is likely, based on statistical analysis
of historical data and current sea
surface conditions, to be
warmer than the historical average (see here.
They relate the current hiatus
period at the
surface and a deeper penetration
of the
warming into the ocean with changes in the trade winds on the subtropical Pacific (intensification).
And in turn this
warm surface water is left in greater control
of the shorter time - scale climate which we have been able to observe during the instrumental
period.
During a
period in which
surface warming is stifled by internal variability the rate
of energy accumulation would be influenced only by the forcing — there would be no difference between a high - sensitivity model and a zero - feedback model (assuming zero - dimensional models; the reality, with regionally varying temperatures and feedbacks, would be more complex).
To achieve such a cycle, BNO (S) must at a minimum
warm the
surface and atmosphere
of the planet by a total
of 0.31 °C during 1970 - 99 which would require more than perhaps 20 ZJ during the
warming phase, equally divided between the first half and the last half
of this 1970 - 99
period.
# 92 Spencer el al 2007 paper doesn't really support the precise mechanism proposed by Lindzen for Iris effect, but more simply observes a strong TOA negative correction associated with
warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005
period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes
of the
surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top
of the atmosphere).
For most recent sampling see: New Peer - Reviewed Study finds «Solar changes significantly alter climate» (11-3-07)(LINK) & «New Peer - Reviewed Study Halves the Global Average
Surface Temperature Trend 1980 — 2002» (LINK) & New Study finds Medieval
Warm Period «0.3 C
Warmer than 20th Century» (LINK) For a more comprehensive sampling
of peer - reviewed studies earlier in 2007 see «New Peer - Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global
Warming Fears» LINK]
... but more simply observes a strong TOA negative correction associated with
warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005
period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes
of the
surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top
of the atmosphere).
It also concludes that current northern hemisphere
surface air temperatures are significantly higher than during the peak
of the Medieval
Warm Period (MWP).
• Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean
surface warming likely to be in the range
of 0.5 °C to 1.3 °C over the
period 1951 to 2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect
of aerosols, likely to be in the range
of − 0.6 °C to 0.1 °C.
A main control on atmospheric CO2 appears to be the ocean
surface temperature, and remains a possibility that a significant part
of the overall increase
of atmospheric CO2 since at least 1958 (start
of Mauna Loa observations) simply relflects the gradual
warming of the oceans as a result
of the prolonged
period of high solar activity since 1920 (Solanki et al., 2004).
For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide grew by approximately 30 % during the transition from the most recent cold glacial
period, about 20,000 years ago, to the current
warm interglacial
period; the corresponding rate
of decrease in
surface ocean pH, driven by geological processes, was approximately 50 times slower than the current rate driven largely by fossil fuel burning.
And for the
period of 1997 to 2012, there are no similarities between the
warming and cooling patterns for lower troposphere temperatures over the oceans and the satellite - enhanced sea
surface temperature data.
The size
of the imbalance varies with the time span you consider, because it is larger in
periods of weak
surface warming such as the last decade, when 0.9 W / m2 pertains, but smaller over longer
periods that have more
warming at the
surface such as the last 20 - 30 years.
In the real world the most obvious and most common reason for an increase in the speed
of energy flow through the system occurs naturally when the oceans are in
warm surface mode and solar input to the oceans due to reduced global albedo is high as apparently occurred during the
period 1975 to 1998.
First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global
surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over
periods as short as a decade, even in the presence
of an underlying long - term
warming trend, because
of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.
«If the
surface temperature resumed the
warming rate that we observed from, say 1977 through 1998, we would still go close to a quarter
of a century without significant net
warming because there's such a long flat
period built into the record now.
Additionally, the observed
surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range
of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal
periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term
warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).
The
periods of intense hurricanes uncovered by the new research were driven in part by intervals
of warm sea
surface temperatures that previous research has shown occurred during these time
periods, according to the new study.
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
Surface warming / ocean
warming: «A reassessment
of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial
period» «Possible artifacts
of data biases in the recent global
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends
surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact
of satellite - based observations in sea
surface temperature trends
surface temperature trends»
Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean
surface warming likely to be in the range
of 0.5 °C to 1.3 °C over the
period 1951 − 2010, with the contributions from other anthropogenic forcings, including the cooling effect
of aerosols, likely to be in the range
of − 0.6 °C to 0.1 °C.