However, other
periods of warming prior to that peiod suggests that co2 is a pretty minor driver and the variation we can see is basically natural tonyb
Not exact matches
An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty will be assessed to the head coach if the team is not back on the field
prior to the start
of the
warm - up
period.
A confounding factor in discussions
of this
period is the unfortunate tendency of some authors to label any warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their r
period is the unfortunate tendency
of some authors to label any
warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their rec
warm peak
prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval
Warm Period» in their rec
Warm Period» in their r
Period» in their record.
This is a vision more befitting our time, one that does not look back to a heavy industry, carbon polluting economy, now infeasible as it imperils a
warming planet and can not be remade in a globally competitive market unlike the
period prior to global trade liberalization
of the early 1970s.
Prevention
of these injuries involves maintaining your dog's physical conditioning through adequate exercise,
warm - up
periods prior to performance events such as agility and common sense (think about what you would do for yourself).
Higher levels
of CO2
prior to 1940 had some role in
warming at that
period, because
of the greenhouse effect, but are insufficient when calculated to explain all the
warming.
-- The same goes for the earlier multi-decadal
period of slight cooling (~ 1940 - 1970) and especially for the early 20thC
period of rapid
warming (1910 - 1940), which occurred
prior to significant human GHG emissions.
I have been arguing that the IPCC's attribution arguments are unconvincing unless they can also explain the early 20th century
warming, and the longer
period of overall
warming prior to the 20th century.
[Recall that the
warm period in the first half
of the century would have been
prior to the time when man - made greenhouse gas emissions are supposed to have
warmed up the climate.]
The party line is only
warming since 1980 is anthropogenic therefore
warming periods prior to then are evidence
of non-anthropogenic
warming.
If part
of the 1910 - 40
warming was, say, the atmosphere being
warmed by the ocean (because, say, the ocean had not yet cooled down since the
warmer period prior to 1900) then one wouldn't expect to see a lag.
Any
warming observed
prior to WWII is indicative
of «global
warming» (GW), but (since there were no significant human GHG emissions yet) is counterindicative
of anthropogenic greenhouse
warming (AGW), since something other than human GHGs caused it, raising the question: if non GH
warming caused this
warming, could it not also have caused the most recent extended
warming period?
«Surface temperature reconstructions for
periods prior to the industrial era are only one
of multiple lines
of evidence supporting the conclusion that climatic
warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence.»
Our interpretations
of the δ18O and MS records suggest a
warming event ~ 400 k.y.
prior to the Cretaceous - Paleogene (K - Pg) boundary, and a
period of climatic and environmental instability in the earliest Danian.
Warming over the Arctic proper during such
periods would also be common with a wind reversal from the common winter westerlies to the vortex disrupted easterlies, but
of course historical documentation
of this is virtually non-existent
prior to the modern
period.
In order to produce a visual apple - to - apple comparison
of the amount
of warming for the two
periods, the
prior period's 5 - year averages were offset to start at the exactly same point as the modern
warming period («offsetting» the datapoints does not affect the slope
of the earlier
period's
warming trend, nor the amount
of warming).
Indeed, a portion
of that small linear trend difference might be due to human CO2 emissions; or, then again, it might be due to the vast urbanization effect over the last 60 + years; or due to the large deforestation that's taken place; or, maybe it's entirely due to the serial fabrication
of global
warming by the world's climate agencies; or it's even possible that the post-1950
warming was entirely a natural phenomenon - the same as the
prior 64 - year
period experience.
Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a
period of similar
warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well
prior to the greatest phase
of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
Lacking CO2 data going back as far as 1850 what is your theory for the other plateaus / cooling
periods in between the
warming, and indeed the
warming itself
prior to our tracking
of that CO2?
Note that today's temperature, and perhaps its duration if it ends soon, matches 3
of the 4
prior brief
warm periods (temp and duration) in this 100,000 year cycle.
If this exercise is well publicized, millions in America will be saying to themselves, «WTF, you mean climate scientists have been discussing aspects
of prior warm periods?
«Surface temperature reconstructions for
periods prior to the industrial era are only one
of multiple lines
of evidence supporting the conclusion that climatic
warming is occurring in response to human activities, and they are not the primary evidence,» the report said.
ust sticking a trend line through a recent
period (eg 1998 - present) and declare it has no
warming with no comparison to a
prior period (or at least no mention
of the confidence ranges).
The suggestion that recent
warming is anthropogenic due to divergence from a simple 60/20 year curve fit over a mere 100 years ignores
prior divergence from both competing models
of distantly past temperature, one being a hockey stick that shows a slow decline instead
of incline
prior 1850 and the other showing two similar «non-cyclical» spikes in the Roman and medieval
periods.
As this adjacent chart reveals, modern
warming increases over the last 60 years don't even match the
warming increases
of the
prior 60 - year
period, when earlier human emissions were just a fraction
of contemporary amounts.
However, that was a
period of warming just
prior to the industrial surge
of atmospheric sulfates, so if the ice did diminish at that time, it would likely be attributed to human caused global
warming.
By this same token, Marcott et al could have also «confirmed» Loehle et al and whatever other reconstructions that exist during that same
period that show general
warming prior to the top
of the WMP and then a cooling afterward to the LIA (but only differed in their amplitudes and peak maxes).
These claims
of statistical «skill» were not an idle puff by MBH, but were relevant to the widespread view that MBH methods represented a new level
of sophistication, separating their work from Lamb's
prior work purporting to show a Medieval
Warm Period.
«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters
of an Earth System Model
of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations
of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as
prior information on the magnitudes
of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty)
warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a
warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005
period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»
The best
of the ice core records from Greenland (see www.WilliamCalvin.com/climate) show a sharp cooling at about 117,000 years ago, effectively ending the
prior warm period, but it took a long time for the ice sheets to return.
That conclusion is based not on climate models or recent trends in forest fires, but rather on records
of forest fires that occurred more than a millennium ago, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, a
period when global temperatures were comparable to what they are today, and about half a degree
warmer (on the Celsius scale) than they had been for several centuries
prior.
In the abstract he elaborates it further: ``... There is evidence
of ice melt, sea level rise to +5 — 9 m, and extreme storms in the
prior interglacial
period that was less than 1 °C
warmer than today....»
There is evidence
of ice melt, sea level rise to +5 — 9 m, and extreme storms in the
prior interglacial
period that was less than 1 C
warmer than today.
For instance, if ocean flows do represent some
of the heat during the modern
warming then it implies some
of the cooling in the
period prior was related to this and then some
of the
warming prior to that is because
of this effect.
The
warming for the 20 years
prior to 2005 appears to be at a greater rate
of warming for a 20 year
period than for the latter years
of all RCP scenarios and even RCP 8.5.
In addition to Adrian Burd's recommendation, Al should read the comprehensive review by Wild: «Global dimming and brightening: A review» http://www.leif.org/EOS/2008JD011470.pdf «Recent brightening can not supersede the greenhouse effect as the main cause
of global
warming, since land surface temperatures overall increased by 0.8 °C from 1960 to 2000, even though solar brightening did not fully outweigh
prior dimming within this
period...» The story is nowhere near as simplistic as Al would have it.