Sentences with phrase «persistence forecast»

Give an independent observer data from 10 or 20 or 30 years ago, going back your choice of years, and let the observer produce a naive persistence forecast for today.

(Compare that to an anomaly persistence forecast which has zero skill at this lead time.)

Tivy, 4.7, + / -0.5, Statistical A persistence forecast based on anomalies in July extent where the mean period is defined as the average of the previous five years.

I decided to start a blog to demonstrate a simple paleo climate persistence forecast since I have not run across one in what I have read so far.

A persistence forecast based on February ice concentration anomalies is generated using CCA.

My personal belief is that our best forecast of future climate at this point is a simple paleo climate persistence forecast based on our best reconstructions of climate for the last 500,000 years.

Slater (Persistence), 5.16, Statistical Three different types of persistence forecasting at 85 - day or 3 - month lead - time.

Slater Persistence, 4.93 (± 0.39), Statistical Three different types of persistence forecasting at 50 - day or 2 month lead time.

Back to naive persistence forecasts — following a trend.

The ocean surface varies in reflectivity and height from moment to moment, and precise calculation of tide variations and heights on a moment to moment basis etc is impossible, being based on naive persistence forecasts of past data.

Not exact matches

Persistence Research has forecast that global HPA demand will soar from 25,315 tonnes in 2016 to 86,831 tonnes in 2024, representing a staggering annual compounded growth rate of nearly 17 %.

Given the persistence of these factors, our latest forecasts have incorporated a flatter profile for consumption growth than has been the case in previous forecasts.

Since we generally observe about two shifts in the Market Climate per year, on average, there tends to be some persistence in our investment positions, but it's incorrect to think of these as «forecasts.»

A recent report by Persistence Market Research, «Pallets Market: Global Industry Analysis 2012 — 2016 and Forecast 2017 — 2025,» has forecasted strong future growth for the plastic pallet industry.

According to the research report compiled by Persistence Market Research, the global frozen foods market will expand at a CAGR of 3.6 % and reach market value of US$ 156.4 billion by the end of forecast period 2014 - 2020.

The experts, who include Professor Mark Baldwin from the University of Exeter, argue that the predictability and persistence of stratospheric events could help scientists enhance both short term, and seasonal, forecast skills.

At the Askwith Forum, «Urban Neighborhoods and the Persistence of Racial Inequality,» on April 29, panelists shared bleak forecasts about whether the country would turn around the downward spiral of poverty and racial inequality in America.

the forecast outperforms persistence (r = 0.74 vs 0.36), OLS regression = 0.98 compared to 0.5 (though the bias is less, -0.01 compared to 0.07).

They claim a mean error of 0.06 C for those forecasts, but the mean error if your forecast method is to use the same temperature as the current year is -0.005 C, doesn't that suggest «persistence» is more accurate that their forecast?

[Response: Short term seasonal forecasting is very much an experimental endeavour and relies not on the predictability due to changes in forcings, but the persistence of ocean temperature anomalies.

Thus for weather forecasts, a prediction is described as skillful if it works better than just assuming that each day is the same as the last («persistence»).

«A previously developed simple statistical tool — the El Niño — Southern Oscillation Climatology and Persistence (ENSO — CLIPER) model — is utilized as a baseline for determination of skill in forecasting this event.»

As the lead time shortens, there is more opportunity for heuristic forecasts based on persistence or observations of the current state of the atmosphere and ocean.

In addition, the persistence of regional features (such as above - normal multi-year ice concentrations compared to recent years in the southern Beaufort and Chukchi Seas) and geographic constraints (such as the confinement of ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) can lend predictive skill to forecasts.

Forecasts of the September sea ice area for the Greenland Sea and Kara - Barents Sea, based on persistence, were provided by Tivy.

SWIF's performance was evaluated during disturbed conditions against standard models (e.g., climatology and persistence) and other forecasting models of different philosophy such as the TSAR that is a purely autoregressive technique and the Geomagnetically Correlated Autoregression Model — GCAM (Muhtarov et al. 2002) that is driven by the geomagnetic activity level by incorporating the cross-correlation between the foF2 and the Ap - index into the auto - correlation analysis (Tsagouri et al. 2009).

For April - June the daily persistence at 85 - day lead time looks like a nice forecast (and is giving better results than a 50 - day lead time), however, this is pure coincidence.

To a large extent the probability forecasts in Figure 11 resemble the surface air temperature anomaly of the last two months in Figure 7 in the high latitudes, illustrating the persistence of weak climate anomalies over the sea ice and ocean covered regions throughout the summer months.

Well, the focus was on a 20y forecast, since that is the amount of data we now have for validation, but yes, we tried a range of different hindcast periods for fitting the trend and for averaging for the sake of persistence - up to 30y, IIRC.