As the Arctic warms up it slows the weather - steering jet stream, «which leads to large persistent meanders in the jet stream associated with
persistent weather extremes.
There's also evidence that as it wobbles, it can get stuck out of kilter, which can lead to more
persistent weather extremes, including heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and flooding.
«Cold, hot or dry:
Persistent weather extremes associated with decreased storm activity: Decrease in storm activity over large parts of the US, Europe, Russia, and China is found to influence weather extremes.»
Not exact matches
Although looking at the rarity of these events one might presume that
weather extremes have little effect, the number of animals killed in the storms left a
persistent recruitment legacy.
The researchers looked at real - world observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern does correspond with the double - peaked jet stream and waveguide patter associated with
persistent extreme weather events in the late spring and summer such as droughts, floods and heat waves.
The reduced day - to - day variability that we observed makes
weather more
persistent, resulting in heat
extremes on monthly timescales.
More
extreme and
persistent swings in the jet stream may also be shaping a North American winter
weather pattern that's been common the past few years — a warm and dry West, especially California, and cold waves in the Eastern U.S.
Abstract: «
Persistent episodes of
extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high - amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6 — 8).
Slowly - traveling waves (or quasi-stationary waves) would lead to more
persistent and therefore more
extreme weather.
These patterns favor
persistent weather patterns, not necessarily more record - breaking cold or warm temperature
extremes.
A useful aspect of this low - frequency circulation is that it can often be described by just a few quasi-stationary regime states, broadly defined as recurrent or
persistent large - scale structures, that exert a significant impact on the probability of experiencing
extreme surface
weather conditions.»
These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse - gas concentrations, the frequency of
extreme weather events caused by
persistent jet - stream patterns will increase.
Evidence suggests that Arctic warming is causing
weather patterns to become more
persistent, which can lead to
extremes such as droughts, cold spells, heat waves, and some flooding events.
Regarding SSW events and N. Europe or British Isle
weather, without the modern satellite data some potential clues on these would be sudden outbreaks of
extreme cold (20C or more below average) with
persistent NE or E winds (as the vortex is disrupted).
A 2015 study by Francis and Stephen Vavrus, «Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming» concluded that global warming was driving an increase in the most
extreme events because of «more frequent high - amplitude (wavy) jet - stream configurations that favor
persistent weather patterns.»
Recent Changes in Blocking Characteristics Assessed Using Self - Organizing Maps Speaker: Jennifer Ann Francis Blocking anticyclones are known to be associated with
persistent weather patterns that often lead to
extreme weather events.
While
extreme events per se are not abrupt climate changes as defined in this report, changes in
extreme events could lead to abrupt changes in two ways: (1) an abrupt change in a
weather or climate
extremes regime, for example a sudden shift to
persistent drought conditions; or (2) a gradual trend in the frequency or severity of
extremes that causes abrupt impacts when societal or ecological thresholds are crossed, as illustrated in Figure 2.10.
According to research published last week by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (Geophysical Research Letters, vol 39, L06801), the rapid warming in the Arctic is affecting atmospheric circulation further south, making
weather patterns more
persistent — more blocking, in other words — which makes some kinds of
extreme weather, such as heatwaves, more likely.
The culprit behind much of the
extreme heat in each case has been large, strong, and
persistent areas of high pressure, which have set up shop over these high latitude locations, keeping cooler
weather and precipitation at bay.
That's doubly true when there is also emerging evidence — documented by Senior
Weather Channel meteorologist Stu Ostro and others — that «global warming is increasing the atmosphere's thickness, leading to stronger and more
persistent ridges of high pressure, which in turn are a key to temperature, rainfall, and snowfall
extremes and topsy - turvy
weather patterns like we've had in recent years.»
Other proposed mechanisms confine the Arctic's influence on large - scale circulation changes to the troposphere, in which a warmer Arctic favors a wavier flow and more
persistent atmospheric blocking, which often spawns
extreme weather events58, 59.