Not exact matches
Morgan Stanley's Delinquency Diffusion
Index, an aggregate measurement of year - over-year increases in the delinquency of several types of
personal loans, stood at 19.2 (on a 100 -
point scale) for the first quarter of 2016, up from its low in October, 2014, driven by increases in auto loan and credit card delinquencies in 2015 — but far below the 60 -
point threshold associated with a pre-recession state.
Note that the real interest rates exceed reported for TIPS because I have adjusted yields to reflect the 35 basis
point average difference between the Consumer Price
Index used in calculating TIPS coupons and the
Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator targeted by the Fed.
The Blue Chip survey focuses on the CPI, which tends to run approximately 20 to 30 basis
points higher than the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation
index, the
personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
index.
Among the evidence that would shift our expectations in this regard would be: material equity market deterioration, further weakness in regional Fed and purchasing managers
indices, a slowing in real
personal income, a spike in new claims for unemployment toward the 340,000 level, an abrupt drop in consumer confidence about 10 - 20
points below its 12 - month average, and at least some amount of slowing in employment growth and aggregate hours worked.
Chuck begins by making a
point that I know from years of
personal experience is on the mind of just about every Buy - and - Holder who has ever heard the terms «P / E10» and «Valuation - Informed
Indexing.»
These scores were then averaged across the ten stop
points to create an
index of situational
personal distress (α =.95 for male provider, α =.94 for female provider).
The third - quarter
Personal Financial Pleasure
Index, a component of the overall PFSi, held the previous quarter's level due to a 5 -
point increase in job openings and 2 -
point increase in home equity nationwide.